Doing a review of the accuracy of each survey data collection mode in 2020, as we do basically every year.

The findings are really worth a show, which will be the topic of #InsideTheNumbers tomorrow.

Will drip some preview findings on this thread... but polling must evolve.
Of course, data sourcing itself also had an impact on accuracy — meaning voter files vs. self-reported, etc — but the long and short of it:

Live caller, which is media preferred and typically a last resort for us in reaching groups like millennial males, is just unneeded now...
We reached them and other difficult groups with other modes/methods, for less money, and with far more accuracy.

Strictly sourcing live caller with voter files and applying a tight LV model definitely resulted in missing more GOP-friendly “new” voters. Only spotted new D votes.
We’ll do this by demographic groups tomorrow, but the gist of it really is that “different groups respond to different modes at different rates.”

And those disparities got worse, which unsurprisingly resulted in even bigger misses outside sampling errors, in ONE direction.

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More from @Peoples_Pundit

19 Dec
Look at this Mask-Wearing Mary, an idiot.

This Yelp review is for one of the ONLY places where you can still bring family to celebrate Christmas Tradition.

If you’re a scared coward who is duped by everything a corrupt and dishonest media tell you, then stay the hell home.
There is ZERO evidence that masking-wearing is effective at slowing the spread. At this point, the human toll — including health and more — far outweighs the risk to taking your kids to see Christmas Lights and drink Hot Cocoa and Appe Cider.

I’m over these simpletons.
Moreover, the Mask-Wearing Mary wasn’t SO offended that they left. Everything inside is available outside too, with the OUTDOOR eating they provide to people.

This turd just didn’t want a private room reserved, and half capacity isn’t good enough for them.

This is a true POS.
Read 6 tweets
17 Dec
You forgot "stunt the education of our children".

All it took for China to get us to sabotage and weaken the future of our country was panic over a virus with a 99.9% survival rate.

I fully understand/appreciate the danger for vulnerable/elderly. But we failed this challenge.
Thread Update: Hearing from parents all over that plans to expand in-person school instructions are now being postponed or cancelled altogether.

So much for only returning to normality when there is a vaccine.

What a total con.
We're not protecting our children against public health "experts" — cons with God Syndrome — teacher union tyrants, and their media mouthpieces.

Make no mistake. Our kids will suffer the ramifications for our failures.
Read 4 tweets
8 Dec
Don't believe it. I wish I could tell you to believe it. But I can't, so I won't. Of course, you could listen to the excuses of my competitors, who haven't called an election correctly, EVER, but are desperately looking for something to justify their incompetence.
Tell me... what election has Dave Wasserman @Redistrict called correctly? The guy and is his organization is a total fraud, a bunch of glorified poll readers who aren't objective nor intelligent enough to digest "non-consensus" polling data.

There's no such thing as a consensus.
Look at one of Dave's great claims to fame. Pinellas County. Half a million votes and Trump/Biden are about even. No double-digit swing. Duval? Nope. None of that, either.

The guy is a fraud and so is his fake, fraudulent model I can debunk in about 15 seconds. Get your $ back.
Read 4 tweets
29 Nov
Let me tell you a story about what happened to us today.

Today, Laura, I, and our daughter were in @MichaelsStores, and speaking to a woman about holidays & politics.

This crackpot @JoeBiden supporter didn't think she was sufficiently wearing her mask and threw her cart at her.
At first, I thought it was someone she knew. Who would possibly be so ridiculous, right? But no. He must've overheard what she was saying and didn't like it.

Aside from the obvious, which is that you don't complain about masks if you touch someone's personal space...
... the bottom line is that this was of course, crazy. Anyway, he was shouting and demanding she should "stop socializing" and that "wearing a mask is a federal law".

That's of course, total bu!!$#!t. But even if it wasn't, you don't physically attack a woman like that...
Read 7 tweets
24 Nov
Election "forecasters" will never be accurate until polls are accurate because they don't run models. They're glorified poll-readers.

@TheEconomist is one of the worst faux models. Last 5 Economist/@YouGov Generic Ballots were wrong in result & trend.

D +10
D +10
D +8
D +7
D +6
Speaking of Generic Congressional Ballots...

Final @CNN Poll — 886 LVs from 10/23-26 — Democrats +12 (54/42).

Planet Earth: Democrats +2.3 (current).

First, CNN, your pollster sucks.

Second, remember the smears against @Rasmussen_Poll after 2018, from CNN people no less?
In 2018, @Rasmussen_Poll GB didn't specifically reference the House. Actual pollsters know how wording can impact results.

No such excuse for @CNN.

"If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your
Congressional district?"
Read 5 tweets
17 Nov
Newsflash: @JoeBiden NEVER led @realDonaldTrump in Ohio, nor other states such as Florida.

Remember @FoxNewsPoll: Biden +3?

Total BS.

Ohio was always Trump +>6.

Recall #InsideTheNumbers when I showed you how badly data must be manipulated to find that.
On that episode of #InsideTheNumbers, we discussed the results of Ohio in the poll we conducted for @EpochTimes and crunched live raw data on air from responses we separately gathered after @FoxNewsPoll Biden +3.

It was incompetence. A lie. Or both.

Watch it. 👆. You'll see
Worth noting, after the @FoxNewsPoll showing Biden +3 in Ohio, the Tiny Crystal Balls moved Ohio to "Toss Up".

Why? Because demographics and other predictive indicators suggested it was one?

No, folks.

Because they have tiny crystal balls and poll-readers. Bad ones at that.
Read 4 tweets

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