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Anthony Bardaro Profile picture
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29 Dec 20, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Empirical research about index fund flows, ETFs, and a self-reinforcing size factor bias...
$SPY $VOO $IWB $IWM #distortion #distortedmarkets
... a 1-sigma spike in fund flows predicts +3.5pp outperformance for size ("SMB" = small minus big)
... dollar volume matters as much as (if not more than) market cap:

e.g. speculators in singlenames can be marginal buyers inflating prices (with asymmetric size bias due to bandwagon a la $aapl $tsla) by reducing supply for more structural ETF demand

... related:

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Anthony Bardaro Profile picture
26 Mar
@sheeraf @CaseyNewton would love to continue our convo – had two questions:

1️⃣ scale legal system to exact individual user liability (in cases of legal abuse a la brandenburg or libel)?

2️⃣ more democratic solution for everything else (instead of centralized corporate arbiters)?
... I proposed arbitration as least bad solution for 1️⃣ and @sheeraf's Myanmar example was best exhibit of what I called the "geopolitical problem"

... but can we talk about the US only for a sec?
... I know, 'home country bias', etc; but 1️⃣ is in the spirit of domestic progress on these issues in light of congressional hearings – specifically the *legal* aspects of free speech on social media per US law – so I wanted to focus on that
Read 4 tweets
Anthony Bardaro Profile picture
23 Dec 20
$arkk $arkg becoming the dog wagging the tail...
... $arkb
... more $arkk pieces from this week:

@DaveNadig interview with ARK COO did a deep dive into the ETF family's liquidity/capacity hypotheticals (spoiler alert: ARK's ETF-mandated transparency means investors are buying $arkk, et al to own the underlying)

etftrends.com/ark-coo-tom-st…
Read 19 tweets
Anthony Bardaro Profile picture
10 Oct 20
/1 One caveat to this @Jesse_Livermore and @patrick_oshag...

Friedman's maxim "inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon" is somewhat apt here -- albeit somewhat inaccurate in its original context (i.e. money supply causation)...

/2 @Jesse_Livermore correctly draws a line between fiscal and monetary stimulus vis a vis inflation...

However, we did not see much spending or inflation spike after the 2008 or 2020 fiscal stimuli because of *expectations*...
/3 @ReformedBroker made observations similar to yours in his recent post (thereformedbroker.com/2020/10/07/les…)...

and it *sounds* correct because of what we know about marginal propensity to consume vs save (MPC vs MPS) from classical econ...

but it's *not* accurate in COVID-19 economy... Image
Read 23 tweets
Anthony Bardaro Profile picture
19 Feb 20
@Wike_Meinstein @johnloeber @BlairReeves @nikillinit Yes, there are only 1.1k MAUs, but **all subscribers are automatically enrolled**...

If you're a subscriber and want to participate, just go to the Forum URL, which is run atop Discourse, and you just use your email and PW from your sub and there's already a profile for you...
@Wike_Meinstein @johnloeber @BlairReeves @nikillinit This might have caused a bit of a disturbance in the force (which I can understand and respect), but, to wit...

The Stratechery Forum has now removed the "Users" page where you could once view the aforementioned community data 🤷‍♂️...

@Wike_Meinstein @johnloeber @BlairReeves @nikillinit ...nevertheless, I can now confirm that the exact number of active Stratechery subscribers is 25,189 per a remaining loophole (the "Groups" option in the Forum) 🏁
Read 4 tweets
Anthony Bardaro Profile picture
13 Dec 19
/1 Thread: With Disruption Theory having now gone mainstream, Bob Iger went to school on the Innovator's Dilemma...

#DisneyPlus $DIS $NFLX $AMZN $T #streamingwars

cc @modestproposal1 @GavinSBaker @bradsling @RichLightShed @benthompson @Rich_Barton @ballmatthew @kidkapital
/2 To gauge expectations, Iger clearly articulated his Disney+ strategic roadmap (and associated tradeoffs) to the Street...

communicating how $DIS's LT franchise opportunity offset its ST financial consequences...
/3 which amounted to an (intrinsically) high probability for Disney to reestablish a moat amidst the (lowercase "disruptive") threat of streaming...

and investors discount that fw such that $DIS (the stock) didn't dive despite sequentially deteriorating financials/guidance...
Read 11 tweets
Anthony Bardaro Profile picture
12 Jun 19
@trengriffin /1 Priceless 😉...

There are two approaches:

🅰️ Hal Varian way of valuing it in isolation

🅱️ Tim O'Reilly way of accounting for aggregate

Since the concern here is GDP (aggregate income or output), a broader consideration like #2 is more appropriate, albeit complex...
@trengriffin /2 Take Android OS as an example of open source software's (OSS) contribution to GDP...

Going to control for output items switching fm Consumption to Investment buckets; fm expense to capitalized; fm domestic accts to EX/IM; etc...
@trengriffin /3 Also going to assume the market value of Android is $0 in isolation, which fully removes its output from real GDP (adversely)...
Read 11 tweets

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