/1 Thread: With Disruption Theory having now gone mainstream, Bob Iger went to school on the Innovator's Dilemma...
#DisneyPlus $DIS $NFLX $AMZN $T #streamingwars
cc @modestproposal1 @GavinSBaker @bradsling @RichLightShed @benthompson @Rich_Barton @ballmatthew @kidkapital
#DisneyPlus $DIS $NFLX $AMZN $T #streamingwars
cc @modestproposal1 @GavinSBaker @bradsling @RichLightShed @benthompson @Rich_Barton @ballmatthew @kidkapital
/2 To gauge expectations, Iger clearly articulated his Disney+ strategic roadmap (and associated tradeoffs) to the Street...
communicating how $DIS's LT franchise opportunity offset its ST financial consequences...
communicating how $DIS's LT franchise opportunity offset its ST financial consequences...
/3 which amounted to an (intrinsically) high probability for Disney to reestablish a moat amidst the (lowercase "disruptive") threat of streaming...
and investors discount that fw such that $DIS (the stock) didn't dive despite sequentially deteriorating financials/guidance...
and investors discount that fw such that $DIS (the stock) didn't dive despite sequentially deteriorating financials/guidance...
/4 Since 2015 faux pas, this has been a strategy masterclass by Iger -- amazing for how well he's read endogenous and exogenous conditions:
e.g. He not only knew Disney's competitive advantages/disadvantages, but also observed that investors had come to understand disruption...
e.g. He not only knew Disney's competitive advantages/disadvantages, but also observed that investors had come to understand disruption...
/5 And the other amazing thing is that there's a growing cohort of case studies on companies that managed to avert disruption at the hands of disruptors (colloquial) and disruptive innovations (academic) -- and their strategic playbooks therein:
/6 To wit, the most important takeaway here is about the seachange in sophistication/education/evolution/adaptation among investors and management teams...
#TLDR
#TLDR
/7 In understanding the Innovators
Dilemma and thus how to better evaluate incumbent vs disruptor strategy, both private and public markets are learning how to better value such competition (i.e. valuation and game theory)...
Dilemma and thus how to better evaluate incumbent vs disruptor strategy, both private and public markets are learning how to better value such competition (i.e. valuation and game theory)...
/8 Having been (allegedly) subject to the bloodless verdict of a capital
market that was myopically concerned about the short term (e.g. cannibalizing revenue is bad), incumbents are no longer dead-men-walking in the face of disruptive innovations -- or, at least, far less so...
market that was myopically concerned about the short term (e.g. cannibalizing revenue is bad), incumbents are no longer dead-men-walking in the face of disruptive innovations -- or, at least, far less so...
/9 If true, a fascinating theme for the next decade will be reflexivity's adaptation to the mainstreaming of these concepts...
e.g. How will startups, disruptors, incumbents, and investors change their approach when the bar for an Innovator's Dilemma has been raised...?
e.g. How will startups, disruptors, incumbents, and investors change their approach when the bar for an Innovator's Dilemma has been raised...?
/10 See also...
• The Janus Rule and a Critique of Aggregation Theory: medium.com/adventures-in-…
• Bear-hugging Disruption: medium.com/adventures-in-…
• The Prisoner's Dilemma Wedge: medium.com/annotote/how-s…
• The Monty Hall Path: medium.com/adventures-in-…
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• The Janus Rule and a Critique of Aggregation Theory: medium.com/adventures-in-…
• Bear-hugging Disruption: medium.com/adventures-in-…
• The Prisoner's Dilemma Wedge: medium.com/annotote/how-s…
• The Monty Hall Path: medium.com/adventures-in-…
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