The latest S:N501 focal build is now up, with data from 28th Dec:
We can see new sequences from Italy, Israel, Spain, France, & Ireland in the SE England variant (501Y.V1) & Switzerland in the South African variant (501Y.V2).
In 501Y.V1 (SE England variant), we can see 1 new sequence from France & Spain, each. The French sample has a travel history to the UK.
3 new sequences are from Israel (marked 1 & 2). Zooming in on '2' (divergence view) shows they are identical, indicating 1 introduction.
2/8
There are 7 new sequences from Ireland, found roughly in 5 places on the tree (4 are singletons, 3 cluster together - 2nd 'group' from the top).
These indicate at least 5 introductions, but we need to zoom in on the 3 that cluster to see more clearly.
3/8
Zooming in to the 3 that cluster together (divergence view), shows it can be difficult to distinguish introductions sometimes, especially as we expect strong travel links between the UK & Ireland, & may only be sampling the total diversity present in Ireland.
4/8
14 new sequences from Italy are scattered across the tree - some alone & some clustering.
Zooming in on a few clusters shows some seem to be linked, while others are harder to determine.
4 seem to be clearly linked as 1 introduction.
5/8
In 501Y.V2 (SA variant), there are 2 new sequences from Switzerland. As they sit quite separately within this cluster, this indicates two separate introductions to Switzerland.
While more sequencing is great, you can see how switching to preferentially sequencing N501 samples will distort our ability to track other variants, both current & emerging.
Long-term, we need coordinated & regular sequencing of many samples to track #SARSCoV2 variants!
8/8
For those for whom it's helpful, there's also a new 'N501-noUK' build up which reduces the number of UK sequences.
*Importantly* one /should not/ use this tree to discern connections between sequences - use in conjunction with the full N501 tree!
Notably, in the '501-noUK' build, an Israeli sequence seems to 'stick out' from the main 501Y.V1 cluster - we've already been in touch with Israeli scientists & there issues with this sequence (mixed base frequencies at some sites) - do not read much into its position!
10/8
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There is 1 sequence now from Sweden, 2 from Norway, & 2 from Finland. The 2 Finnish sequences & 2 Norwegian sequences are separated on the tree, indicating 2 separate introductions in each country.
2/8
There are 3 sequences from South Korea clustering together. Zooming in (& in divergence view) we can see they are closely related, and likely indicate 1 introduction.
Many are interested in using the 69/70 deletion to scan for cases of the new #SARSCoV2 variants.
As it can impact some primers (seen as an 'S drop-out' in PCR), it can be a high-throughput way to check for the 'SE England' variant - but some important things to remember!
1/5
First, the 69/70 deletion has arisen multiple times independently: not everything with 69/70 is the SE England variant!
You can see that 69/70del appears many times here: notably it's associated with 501Y.V1 (English variant) AND 453 & 439.
In particular, S:N439K is widespread across Europe, and about 3/4 of the sequences in this cluster have the 69/70del.
So there's a fair chance a 69/70del in continental Europe is part of this cluster, not the 'new variant' from England.
Filtering to just look at the Hong Kong & Israel samples, we can see that the 2 Hong Kong sequences sit further apart on the tree, indicating two separate introductions.
Zooming in on this further, and switching to divergence view (showing mutations rather than time), we can see they share 1 unique mutation & then have 1 unique mutation each, suggesting 1 introduction, possibly from the UK, & onward transmission.
We can take a similar look at the Danish sequences. They too, share one unique mutation, & some further unique mutations, suggesting a single introduction & onward transmission.
On this Christmas Eve, I would like to spare a thought for the many scientists, researchers, & lab technicians & assistants who have been 'called up' thanks to the new #SARSCoV2 variants.
It's been a tough year & many of us had hoped this week might be a well-earned break.
1/6
Academia/science is rarely a 9-5 job, & we're a bit famous for our tendency to overwork, but it's a rare year when evolutionary biology & phylogenetics are so urgently needed that we can't slip away for a few quiet days over Christmas!
2/6
(see alt text for the ornament shop!)
I imagine many, like myself, are humbled & proud that we can contribute to the efforts against #COVID19#SARSCoV2.
But it's been an incredibly long, hard year for many of us, compounded by the same restrictions, loss, & loneliness that so many have felt.
3/6
We can see this because the 3 variants (UK=1, Wales=2, SA=3) are not next to or inside each other in the tree below. In fact, we need to trace back to before March to find their common ancestors: