Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/21. Dec 29 to Jan 04 -
Our #COVID19 daily epidemic 7-day-forecasting for 209 countries and territories.
Dashboard: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu
Credit image: 123RF
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
4.67 m already vaccinated by Dec 28.

2/21. IMPORTANT NOTE: Since @ECDC_EU
has given up in its daily data reporting since Dec 15, we cannot any longer provide previsions from their database. We rely on JHU.
Due to irregular reporting during Christmas break, we cannot deliver any reliable previsions for Switzerland.

3/21. Italy will be slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.84), at medium level of activity, with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Vaccine campaign has started.

4/21. Austria will be slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.86), at medium level of activity, with high level of mortality, for 7 more days.
Vaccine campaign has started.

5/21. Germany is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.89), at high to medium (by the weekend) levels of activity, increasing in mortality at very high levels, for 7 more days.
Soft lockdown.
41,962 already vaccinated by Dec 28.

6/21 - Belgium is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.93), at medium levels of activity, and at very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Vaccine campaign has started.

7/21. France seems to have stopped its descent towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.98), at medium levels of activity, but it has to be interpreted with the high level of testing activity. Decreasing in mortality at high levels, for 7 more days.
Vaccine campaign has started.

8/21. Denmark is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.89), at high levels of activity, with increasing high to very high (by the week-end) levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
4,788 already vaccinated by Dec 27.

9/21. The Netherlands seems close to take over control of its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=0.99), plateauing at high levels, with high level of mortality, for 7 more days.
Partial lockdown extended to Christmas.
Vaccine campaign has started.

10/21.The UK will experience a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.17) at high levels, with increasing very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Lockdown due to a new variant suspected to cause an incr. in transmis.
800,000 already vaccinated by Dec 24.

11/21. Ireland is experiencing the most rapid and worrying surge in #COVID19 epidemic activity in Europe (R-eff=1.30), at high level of activity, with increasing medium to high (by the weekend) levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Vaccine campaign has started.

12/21. Tunisia will see a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.11) at medium levels, plateauing at high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

13/21. South Africa, which enters in its summer season, will experience a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.10), at high levels, with increasing very high levels of mortality, for 7 more d.
Lockdown changes due to a new variant suspectd to cause an incr in transm.

14/21. Israel will experience a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.26) at high levels, with increasing high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
491,600 already vaccinated by Dec 28.

15/21. Russia is plateauing at medium levels of its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.01), with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Russia begins vaccination campaign with Sputnik V 52,000 already vaccinated by Dec 22.

16/21. Japan, remaining in its #COVID19 safety zone (< 3,900 cases/day), will experience a rise in its epidemic activity (R-eff=1.10) with still very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Insights on

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1328471487003680770?s=20

Incl. details of its backward-tracing strategy.

17/21. South Korea seems to be close to take over control of its epidemic activity (R-eff=1.06), remaining in its #COVID19 safety zone (with <1,200 cases/day), with low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

18/21. Canada will be plateauing at medium levels of its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=0.99), with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Forecast for 4 provinces available in the thread:

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1343918549975375872?s=20

58,818 doses administered by Dec 28.

19/21. The US will be plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=0.96) at high levels, decreasing in mortality but still at very high levels, for 7 more d.
New forecast for 7 states in the thread:

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1343923976280666113?s=20

2.13 m doses administered by Dec 26.

20/21. Brazil is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.90), at medium level of activity, with high level of mortality, for 7 more days.

21/21. Uruguay, which enters in its summer season, will see a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.15), from medium to high (by the weekend) level, with increasing high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

22/21. Australia and New Zealand are among the safest countries in the world with regard to #COVID19 epidemic activity. They both remain for the past months within their safety zone, with very low mortality rates, and will remain so, for at least 7 more days.

23/21.
Read forecasting for other countries by following @KristenN_06

and @elisa_manetti

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
4.3 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 20 cases/day
20 < High level < 100
Very high level > 100

24/21.
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0