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29 Dec 20, 6 tweets, 2 min read
Striking that the Tory ERG (left) and the @IPPR think tank (right) agree the UK-EU deal is too weak on "rebalancing" sanctions/procedures to, in practical terms, have any impact on preventing the UK government doing what it wants in future on environment/labour/subsidies etc... ImageImage
ERG verdict here...
IPPR view here...
ippr.org/research/publi…
Should add that though the conclusion is the same each, (of course) feels very differently about the merits of the deal from the UK perspective for that reason.
Given both the ERG and IPPR BOTH think the treaty's effective protections on UK environment and labour standards are pretty weak, will Labour argue differently? Looks awkward for Keir Starmer
Though, of course, both could be wrong - and some analysts think the level playing field provisions in the deal DO provide a strong deterrent to the UK lowering standards & that the EU could well play hardball if the UK tries

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More from @BenChu_

Ben Chu Profile picture
31 Dec 20
THREAD ON THE IMPACT OF THIS BREXIT DEAL ON SERVICE EXPORTS💸🏦✉️🧳

Boris Johnson in BBC interview on Wednesday said: “There are already immense barriers to UK services – there is no internal market for services in the EU”....1/

The message the PM seems to be pushing is that the failure to get much on services in this UK-EU trade deal is no big deal.

Here’s why that’s grossly misleading and it IS a big deal economically...2/
First the data.

In 2019 the UK exported services with a value of around £127bn to the EU.

That's equivalent to around 6% of our GDP...3/ Image
Read 11 tweets
Ben Chu Profile picture
30 Dec 20
Is Covid really being spread significantly in and by schools? 🦠🏫🧑‍🎓

Thread 🧵

The decision by the government to relay the school return for secondary pupils by a week suggests ministers now believe so.

But what’s the evidence? 1/
The basic facts are not disputed.

The Office for National Statistics’ large-scale and random weekly survey shows that rates in the run-up to Christmas were considerably higher for school age children than adults...2/

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati… Image
Another large and random survey by researchers at Imperial College London, known as REACT, has been showing a similar picture.

Prevalence in school age children is roughly double the rest of the population...3/

spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/1004… Image
Read 17 tweets
Ben Chu Profile picture
24 Dec 20
When Boris Johnson said - wrongly - there will be no non-tariff barriers to trade with the EU it wasn't a slip of the tongue or an extempore blurt.

The line was explicitly written in his address 👇

gov.uk/government/spe…
To be clear, non-tariff barriers are things like paperwork for exporters, checks on imported products, licencing requirements for professionals, and differences in regulations that firms must comply with...
The single market eliminated many of these non-tariff barriers facing UK firms.

The UK is leaving the single market so they will return.
Read 4 tweets
Ben Chu Profile picture
24 Dec 20
In terms of the economic impact of this free trade deal with the EU it's important to realise that it's essentially avoiding harm.

Here's the @OBR_UK estimate of what a no-deal would have done to UK GDP over the next couple of years...
...Here's what @uk_tpo think the UK import tariffs from no-deal could have done to domestic prices...
....Here's some estimates by @TheIFS researchers of the impact of no-deal scenario tariffs on exports to the EU on various UK industrial sectors...
Read 5 tweets
Ben Chu Profile picture
24 Dec 20
What does this free trade deal with the EU mean for the UK economy?

Thread

First thing to say is that avoiding a no-deal economic breakdown on 31 December is VERY good news.

Would have meant huge disruption and massive pain for certain sectors hit by tariffs...1/
....And unknowable but potentially profoundly negative longer term impact on particular industries...

Discount the "prospering mightily" rhetoric.

But what about the impact of the deal that's actually been reached?...2/
...We need to see the detail (2,000 pages apparently) but we can confidently say that it will be very think.

Why because the UK government was only ever asking for a thin deal...3/
Read 5 tweets
Ben Chu Profile picture
22 Dec 20
Negative interest rates for the UK back in play? 📉

Financial futures markets are pricing in a higher chance of negative rates next year from the Bank if England in wake of the Tier 4 restrictions announced at the weekend & fears of a return to recession...👇 Image
....Although worth noting that markets still seem to think chances are lower than expected earlier this month (see green line)...👇 Image
...Futures data handily published by Bank of England alongside its daily yield curve data by the way...

bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/yie…
Read 4 tweets

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