THREAD ON THE IMPACT OF THIS BREXIT DEAL ON SERVICE EXPORTS💸🏦✉️🧳
Boris Johnson in BBC interview on Wednesday said: “There are already immense barriers to UK services – there is no internal market for services in the EU”....1/
Average estimate of long-term hit to UK GDP from a free trade deal relative to staying in the EU from is around 4%.
Not clear precisely how much of this attributable to lower UK-EU services, as opposed to goods, trade but it would be a considerable chunk given trade trends...8/
The 2018 UK government study attributed ALL the negative impact of the free trade deal relative to staying in the EU to new non-tariff barriers.
It’s notable the damage from this source is almost as great in a free trade agreement scenario as in the no-deal scenario...9/
This, of course, will include the non-tariff barriers affecting goods exporters (border checks etc)
Yet also worth noting that the goods/services division is increasingly blurred as exporting manufacturers now earn a ⬆️share of profits from linked services....10/
Upshot?
Despite what the PM says, there IS an internal market in services in the EU.
Losing access to it DOES matter for exporting UK services firms.
And the economic impact is going to be negative and will likely grow increasingly large over time.
Thread on how easy it is to get tricked into haemorrhaging money from your bank account after an online purchase – and why financial regulators seem to be behind the curve on this.🧵💸💻
Forgive the personal story, but I think it's relevant...1/
I’m pretty careful with my money online - regularly checking my pension, combing my online bank statement for suspicious transactions, pruning unwanted subscriptions etc...2/
I’d describe this as financial hygiene – and would advise everyone to do it.
Yet it’s not always enough.
While looking through a list of transactions on my online account before Xmas I noticed a £15 payment to something called "WLY*COMPLETESAVE.CO.UK" ...3/
Is Covid really being spread significantly in and by schools? 🦠🏫🧑🎓
Thread 🧵
The decision by the government to relay the school return for secondary pupils by a week suggests ministers now believe so.
But what’s the evidence? 1/
The basic facts are not disputed.
The Office for National Statistics’ large-scale and random weekly survey shows that rates in the run-up to Christmas were considerably higher for school age children than adults...2/
Striking that the Tory ERG (left) and the @IPPR think tank (right) agree the UK-EU deal is too weak on "rebalancing" sanctions/procedures to, in practical terms, have any impact on preventing the UK government doing what it wants in future on environment/labour/subsidies etc...
To be clear, non-tariff barriers are things like paperwork for exporters, checks on imported products, licencing requirements for professionals, and differences in regulations that firms must comply with...
The single market eliminated many of these non-tariff barriers facing UK firms.
The UK is leaving the single market so they will return.