Ben Chu Profile picture
31 Dec 20, 12 tweets, 5 min read
THREAD ON THE IMPACT OF THIS BREXIT DEAL ON SERVICE EXPORTS💸🏦✉️🧳

Boris Johnson in BBC interview on Wednesday said: “There are already immense barriers to UK services – there is no internal market for services in the EU”....1/

The message the PM seems to be pushing is that the failure to get much on services in this UK-EU trade deal is no big deal.

Here’s why that’s grossly misleading and it IS a big deal economically...2/
First the data.

In 2019 the UK exported services with a value of around £127bn to the EU.

That's equivalent to around 6% of our GDP...3/
Moreover, the relative value of services exports to the EU in our exports mix has been rising.

At the turn of the millennium UK services exports to the EU accounted for 25 per cent of total exports.

Last year they were worth 42 per cent of the total....4/
This deal is bad news for services exporters.

See the excellent work of @SallyJJonesEY and @GeorgeMRiddell for more on the detail.

And this @instituteforgov podcast is extremely useful…5/ player.acast.com/ifg-live-discu…
But what about the macroeconomic impact of this damage to UK services exporters?

The modelling done by various groups in recent years on the likely impact of a basic free trade deal with the EU gives us some decent pointers....6/
The government’s own economists in 2018 pencilled in a 4-14% increase in service firms’ exports costs from new non-tariff barriers.

For financial firms they projected an increase in costs of up to 22% from the loss of the single market passport...7/

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Average estimate of long-term hit to UK GDP from a free trade deal relative to staying in the EU from is around 4%.

Not clear precisely how much of this attributable to lower UK-EU services, as opposed to goods, trade but it would be a considerable chunk given trade trends...8/
The 2018 UK government study attributed ALL the negative impact of the free trade deal relative to staying in the EU to new non-tariff barriers.

It’s notable the damage from this source is almost as great in a free trade agreement scenario as in the no-deal scenario...9/
This, of course, will include the non-tariff barriers affecting goods exporters (border checks etc)

Yet also worth noting that the goods/services division is increasingly blurred as exporting manufacturers now earn a ⬆️share of profits from linked services....10/
Upshot?

Despite what the PM says, there IS an internal market in services in the EU.

Losing access to it DOES matter for exporting UK services firms.

And the economic impact is going to be negative and will likely grow increasingly large over time.

ENDS

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More from @BenChu_

2 Jan
Thread on how easy it is to get tricked into haemorrhaging money from your bank account after an online purchase – and why financial regulators seem to be behind the curve on this.🧵💸💻

Forgive the personal story, but I think it's relevant...1/
I’m pretty careful with my money online - regularly checking my pension, combing my online bank statement for suspicious transactions, pruning unwanted subscriptions etc...2/
I’d describe this as financial hygiene – and would advise everyone to do it.

Yet it’s not always enough.

While looking through a list of transactions on my online account before Xmas I noticed a £15 payment to something called "WLY*COMPLETESAVE.CO.UK" ...3/
Read 25 tweets
30 Dec 20
Is Covid really being spread significantly in and by schools? 🦠🏫🧑‍🎓

Thread 🧵

The decision by the government to relay the school return for secondary pupils by a week suggests ministers now believe so.

But what’s the evidence? 1/
The basic facts are not disputed.

The Office for National Statistics’ large-scale and random weekly survey shows that rates in the run-up to Christmas were considerably higher for school age children than adults...2/

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati… Image
Another large and random survey by researchers at Imperial College London, known as REACT, has been showing a similar picture.

Prevalence in school age children is roughly double the rest of the population...3/

spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/1004… Image
Read 17 tweets
29 Dec 20
Striking that the Tory ERG (left) and the @IPPR think tank (right) agree the UK-EU deal is too weak on "rebalancing" sanctions/procedures to, in practical terms, have any impact on preventing the UK government doing what it wants in future on environment/labour/subsidies etc... ImageImage
IPPR view here...
ippr.org/research/publi…
Read 6 tweets
24 Dec 20
When Boris Johnson said - wrongly - there will be no non-tariff barriers to trade with the EU it wasn't a slip of the tongue or an extempore blurt.

The line was explicitly written in his address 👇

gov.uk/government/spe…
To be clear, non-tariff barriers are things like paperwork for exporters, checks on imported products, licencing requirements for professionals, and differences in regulations that firms must comply with...
The single market eliminated many of these non-tariff barriers facing UK firms.

The UK is leaving the single market so they will return.
Read 4 tweets
24 Dec 20
In terms of the economic impact of this free trade deal with the EU it's important to realise that it's essentially avoiding harm.

Here's the @OBR_UK estimate of what a no-deal would have done to UK GDP over the next couple of years...
...Here's what @uk_tpo think the UK import tariffs from no-deal could have done to domestic prices...
....Here's some estimates by @TheIFS researchers of the impact of no-deal scenario tariffs on exports to the EU on various UK industrial sectors...
Read 5 tweets
24 Dec 20
What does this free trade deal with the EU mean for the UK economy?

Thread

First thing to say is that avoiding a no-deal economic breakdown on 31 December is VERY good news.

Would have meant huge disruption and massive pain for certain sectors hit by tariffs...1/
....And unknowable but potentially profoundly negative longer term impact on particular industries...

Discount the "prospering mightily" rhetoric.

But what about the impact of the deal that's actually been reached?...2/
...We need to see the detail (2,000 pages apparently) but we can confidently say that it will be very think.

Why because the UK government was only ever asking for a thin deal...3/
Read 5 tweets

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