Thread by @LPDonovan

::whispers:: Georgia still isn't going to come down to covid relief, $2000 checks or otherwise

This isn't a "lol nothing matters" argument--Trump has put Rs in a weird spot, while giving Ds an opening to score political points if not a big policy win. There may be a point where they decide the least worst outcome is to swallow a $450B suspension bill (though I doubt it.)

But unlikely voters don't become likely run-off voters (let alone persuadable ones) because they were keyed into what Congress was doing--or not doing--over the holidays. This is going to be a tough, tight slog and there's no one neat policy trick that's going to clinch it.

If you look closely at EV/ABS--and there's a solid argument you shouldn't--there's potential peril in there for Rs. Peril that wasn't driven by covid sputtering and that won't be solved by free money from the govt. If they win it's because they cranked election day turnout to 11.

There is one scenario where this stuff becomes determinative, and it has less to do with covid or dollar figures than it does Trump going to war with Rs. All sides seem intent on avoiding that, for now, but that's the obvious pressure point, not the popularity of the policy.

https://twitter.com/lpdonovan/status/1342622840680550402

A good point here--the most elegant resolution here might be a standoff that leads to a lapse in NDAA that satisfies Trump but is immediately fixed post-inauguration with no real damage except to the bill's must-pass mystique.

https://twitter.com/jao_1989/status/1344022276593823747