So,

I went to Calais yesterday to look at plans for implementing the Brexit deal at the most important freight border...

...don’t expect a rerun of the pre-Christmas chaos and queues, operators say

1/ ft.com/content/0e076e…
Why?

Traffic will be low as huge stockpiling to avoid Brexit. The UK won’t be doing much checking; it isn’t ready. And the French infrastructure is impressive at the tunnel and the port

Here is the new customs bays for example, ready to go and look how empty Calais port was

2/
The big question will be the numbers of trucks that rock up without the required £7bn a year of new red tape paperwork

(Yes this is a non tariff barrier Boris)

There are 250 lorry parking places at the French side of the tunnel and customs agents ready to help.

3/
There are even stables for horses that will need checking now UK is out of the single market and customs area.

Hopes equine requirements will be lessened because the horses exported by UK are not destined for French restaurants

Ferried UK fish will be checked in Boulogne

4/
And truck drivers will get a green or amber light on departing ferry/train letting them know if they can drive straight to the motorway...

... obvs if their paperwork is in order. They won’t get on if not

5/
One last thing. How did I get to France when the authorities are not letting in UK citizens?

Because I had a negative PCR Covid test and, more importantly, also one of these. The benefits of a EU passport are pretty enormous

ENDS

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More from @ChrisGiles_

30 Dec
After the latest official figures of UK deaths, the latest estimate of the number of excess deaths since mid March across the UK is

86,000

This is a depressing and very high number, but the latest trends are interesting and have some more positive elements

1/ Image
Of this estimate 82,500 have been registered with 3,500 estimated to have occured since the latedt data which runs to 18 December

Interesting facts:

The daily pattern of excess deaths has not accelerated yet even though case numbers have since the end of the November lockdown Image
There are now 50% more deaths reported by the government & on death certificates than excess deaths in corresponding periods (note December here is not the full month)

This means:
- testing is working now
- Some of those dying with Covid would have died anyway

3/ Image
Read 6 tweets
22 Dec
When it's all pretty grim on the Covid-19 front, here is a piece of relatively good news...

There are now fewer excess deaths in the second wave than we might have expected

1/
In March and April, there were regularly roughly twice the number to total excess deaths than those recorded by the government after a positive Covid-19 test

In October, November and December, there have been fewer - about 75 to 80% of the number from the daily totals

why?

2/
Obviously, we cannot know for sure, but here are some potential explanations

-It's a blip and excess deaths will start rising.

Unlikely, unless register offices have suddenly changed their practices

3/
Read 10 tweets
18 Dec
UPDATE: After the latest data on excess deaths and people dying in hospitals, the up to date estimate of the number of UK deaths linked to coronavirus since mid-March is

84,800

This has been a bad week for virus cases, but a good week for excess deaths

1/
Excess deaths were low in England & Wales in the latest data and also in Scotland and Northern Ireland. It might be the effects of the lockdown or it might be a changing relationship between deaths in hospitals and excess deaths.

Daily pattern is v different to first wave

2/
Sadly, with the rapid rise in cases in the past two weeks and signs of acceleration, you'd have to be reckless to think the lower levels of excess deaths will continue

ENDS
Read 4 tweets
17 Dec
Harrods and fishing - a thread

For the benefit of @christopherhope who was correct on the telly today

and Paul Stains - @GuidoFawkes - who wasn't

tl:dr Harrods is worth more to the UK economy than fishing....

... has been for a few years.

... now not even close

1/
@christopherhope @GuidoFawkes This first arose when I calculated the fact and stated clearly the underlying rationale in a 2018 column and a tweet



2/
@christopherhope @GuidoFawkes Having been true but forgotton, it came up today and then Paul Stains started to pretend it was false, and then, when I demonstrated it wasn't, to suggest my facts were mere "conjecture"

3/
Read 14 tweets
17 Dec
Maybe you should do some proper research.

As you know, it's a GVA calculation not exports

The Harrods accounts are not just the store itself, but the GVA of the concessions that operate within the building (which are estimated from the staffing cost)
Now - where your attempted putdown is really badly wrong is in a comparison of GVA with the value of fish exports.

Has it occured to you that within the £2bn of fish exports will be:
- imported fish (we process in the UK)
- value of buying, selling and transporting fish...
These are the GVA of respectively
- the food manufacturing sector
- the distribution sector
- the wholsaleing sector

plus there will be many other business services GVA in fish exports

..... and
Read 4 tweets
10 Dec
Quiz yourself whether a Covid wealth tax is a good idea (if you want to do the quiz, don't read the column till later when we'd appreciate the clicks...

,ft.com/content/e3d0a6… via @financialtimes
Simple questions: who should pay more in a wealth tax:

a) a rich young banker driving her new Lamborghini to and from her riverside penthouse; or
b) an NHS consultant convalescing after weeks on a ventilator having contracted Covid-19 trying to save lives?
How about:

a) the business owner whose motto is “you only live once” and plans for the government to look after him in retirement; or
b) the business owner who’s horrified by the idea of reliance on the state for his pension or social care?
Read 7 tweets

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