Thread by @ChrisGiles_

After the latest official figures of UK deaths, the latest estimate of the number of excess deaths since mid March across the UK is

86,000

This is a depressing and very high number, but the latest trends are interesting and have some more positive elements

1/

Of this estimate 82,500 have been registered with 3,500 estimated to have occured since the latedt data which runs to 18 December

Interesting facts:

The daily pattern of excess deaths has not accelerated yet even though case numbers have since the end of the November lockdown

There are now 50% more deaths reported by the government & on death certificates than excess deaths in corresponding periods (note December here is not the full month)

This means:
- testing is working now
- Some of those dying with Covid would have died anyway

3/

It doesn't mean coronavirus is like flu or not a killer because there is still a constant excess death toll every week. And we haven't seen the effect of the resurgence in cases since the November lockdown ended yet.

4/

On top of this, there is no sign in the data of the effectiveness of vaccination yet. (Granted, it would be highly surprising to find it already)

In the latest data, there are proportionally more excess deaths among the oldest people in our community than normal deaths

5/

This is something to watch in the month ahead. Hopefully soon we will see proportionatley fewer excess deaths in these groups, indicating the success of the vaccine

And with that, we would hope to see a decline in total excess deaths

ENDS