Thread by @BaluSreevidya

My Notes on Tamil Nadu Battle Field – Part 3

POST RAJINIKANTH POLITICS

My short thread on RK was focusing on the challenges RK will face. Key points.

1. I said that if Rajini couldn’t enter the “Rajini” style, hen he won’t enter at all. His announcement yesterday reflects it.

2. His followers are not united by a cause or ideology but by the mutual attraction towards a hero.

This will cause issues going forward as their bond will have to be a continuous guidance and inspiration from their leader who couldn't spare that energy or time due to his health

I had predicted in my first thread in November that Rajini won't form a third front.

So, when RK announced his political entry, I was surprised for two reasons:

1. when he announced his entry in 2017 there was a political vacuum in Tamil Nadu.

However, the rise of EPS and BJP through its Vel Yathra has made the emergence of a new hero somewhat redundant and it looked he was under pressure to come due to the tall promises he had made before.

2. the critical mass was still a distant dream because not enough footwork was done at booth level to transfer support to vote.

I have covered his strengths in detail previously, which included his organisational framework and blueprint and cast-less vote bank.

Although RK has a perceived vote share of 15 to 20%, vote to seat conversion would be tricky unless he has undertaken some feasibility study to show otherwise.

It is my firm view that his vote share didn't have the critical mass to get seats let alone win him a majority because

the expectation was that votes would come from the apolitical mass and from both dravidian parties.

I am quoting below things I had identified as ‘challenges to Rajini’ in an unpublished thread. These are the real reasons I speculate behind Rajini’s current decision:

1.Health, which is not a new issue. The fact that he didn’t begin the party earlier itself shows his poor health condition

2.The forces that often make him say anti-Hindu things in his movies wouldn’t have let him operate with a free will. Examples –

his shift from ‘spiritual’ politics to ‘clean politics’,

his reaction to BJP’s condescension,

his quick reaction to Gangai Amaran’s plea,

his U-turn on his trip to Sri Lanka,

his reluctance to openly support Modi Ji whom he thinks can bring all the changes he envisions.

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3.The announcement didn’t sound too genuine or sanguine. He announced a party because that’s what people expected from him.

In fact, the day he announced it, I told a few people in close circle that he doesn’t carry this decision in his air – he looks diffident, if not upset.

He was reeling under the weight of his own promises which he had made in good intention and earnest desire to give back the Tamil people something in return for the welcome they gave him.

4.Self-goals which would have given him some setbacks. By saying ‘aatchi matram’,

(change of govt), ‘arasial matram’, (change of political system), and plan to contest all 234 seats, he ruled out any tie ups with both Dravidian parties.

While he is such an untested leader and this is no MGR times, excluding potential allies was poor political acumen.

Similarly, he said CM and party leadership will be separate.

Closer to the election, there is no way he could win if he projected another face as CM candidate.

Going without one would also put his chances down in front of two clear leaders – Stalin and EPS.

5.The rise of BJP and its vision – transparent, development oriented spiritual politics which is pretty much the same as RK’s and the potential of going irrelevant with the rise of @annamalai_k in the state.

Rajini probably didn’t feel the same urge as he felt before

Overall, there wasn’t enough steel in the frame.

Now, let's look at the post Rajini political scenario.

Endorsement phase. Rajini has more political power outside of the battlefield than being in as one of the politicians.

His endorsement value is tested and is relatively high.

So, the first impact of this decision will be various political outfits competing with each other for an endorsement from Rajini.

Even DMK will try to strike a good note with RK.

If I'm not mistaken, Kamal Haasan and Seeman will be the first ones to rush for gaining Rajini’s support.

Leaders like OPS will try to garner Rajini’s support. But in my view, the most serious and deserving party that will seek Rajini’s endorsement will be BJP.

This I have written in November when speculating that Rajini won’t form a third front.

BJP will use its heavy weights. That lunch/ dinner Modi ji was to have with Rajini has some reason/ justification now.

BUT, RK will not endorse anyone at least till the elections.

My Notes on Tamil Nadu Battlefield Part 4

THE IMPACT OF RAJINI’S DECISION ON VARIOUS PARTIES

On DMK

DMK will be less anxious now. What it feared was transfer of DMK votes to Rajini. Everyone believed a post poll stitch up between Rajini and NDA.

Now DMK will be more relaxed as the fight is between them and AIADMK. This is a known, tested scenario and Stalin will be comfortable handling this situation.

However, DMK has more reasons to fear BJP than Rajini.

They know that BJP will go all out on them with no Rajini to breakaway their vote base.

DMK’s eternal fear of BJP is about how BJP will continue to expose their corruption. Annamalai has done a neat mapping of their money trails and can bring every card down if need be.

If Rajini were DMK’s worry till yesterday, then Annamalai is their future worry. Annamalai has already travelled to 130 constituencies in under 3 months, and can potentially dismantle DMK’s fake propaganda peddling.

Duraimurugan recently appealed to DMK cadres not to ‘let down or expose’ their own.

DMK also stands to lose PMK due to Dayanidhi Maran. Marans seem to destroy Stalin from within. Kanimozhi is also keen to play Stalin-US down.

Mrs. Vijayakanth has categorically eliminated DMK.

Add to this mix is MK Azhagiri's potential move. He will form a party now and will be with NDA splitting DMK votes in the South.

As I foretold, BJP will continue to break DMK allies bit by bit and their vote base.

This way, about 8 - 10% vote base will not come to DMK. That means DMK has to focus on their core cadre and the swing, which can go either way.

With 32 channels and a proven ability to lie, PKP and Stalin will try and rely on propaganda more than anything else.

Although DMK took a stance against RK and started attacking him from the word go, it was a poorly crafted political idea.

If people like me could be sceptical about RK’s success, how come all politicians including PK think they need to attack RK to silence him?

Did they think this was a scare tactics?

Anyway, the impact on DMK is that they will not receive RK’s endorsement and not a single vote will come to DMK from Rajini Makkal Mandram. However, people will continue to leave DMK to join BJP.

AIADMK

AIADMK will not have much of an impact. They will stand to gain in two ways.

~ A certain drain from their side is stopped
~ Some or many of Rajini followers will now vote AIADMK
~ AIADMK now has an upper hand with BJP and other allies for seat sharing.

Will face trouble due to DMK trying to break AIADMK. They will TRY to use TTV and VKS.

BJP

BJP will stand to gain especially because of Modi Ji and Annamalai. Will do a detailed tweet on this later.

More people from DMK and some other parties (MNM, NTK) will flow into BJP now

that they can’t go to RK’s party.

It's my firm belief that BJP will persuade Rajnikant to endorse them in some way.

Rajinikanth may oblige and do this directly closer to the election or may do it discretely through his Mandram.

He will not support any party or leader now.

Closer to the election, he will see the winning side, and if that side is NDA, then he will openly endorse it. If DMK is winning, then he might remain silent.

BJP’s position is weakened with respect to RK’s exit, so their seats in the alliance will take a beating.

So will all the other allies. EPS will hold on to PMK, but will give less than 15 seats to BJP and less than 10 to DMDK.

NDA

BJP’s alliance as NDA with AIADMK will need to redefine its purpose and pitch. I had said earlier that BJP will certainly go with AIADMK, and not Rajini

I stay with my conviction due to the support BJP will need at the centre.

Note the two below points:

1.Annamalai’s speech in Karaikudi where he spoke about H Raja being MLA and Minister – indicating BJP’s intent of participation in AIADMK cabinet – something that has never

happened before

2.EPS’s response to this where he said there will be NO coalition government.

This is one of the three issues between the allies. The other two issues are:

1.Naming convention and CM candidate – if the alliance is called NDA, then BJP will have to decide the