Thread by @Dr_D_Robertson

Here are the heatmaps for Covid detected cases, positivity, hospitalizations, and ICU admissions. This is up to week 52 (21-29 December). This covers Christmas, so data should be interpreted with caution.

And some commentary in the thread of where we are at the end of 2020.

Detected case rates. Very high amongst working age population, highest in 30-39 year olds. Rates above 150 cases per 100,000 (ie very high rates) in *all* age groups (colour and monochrome versions below)

However, not all cases are detected, so we can look at positivity (number of people testing positive / number of people being tested).

Over 10% positivity in under-80-year-old males and in under-50-year old females.

For the first time, there is over-10% positivity in children.

Hospital admissions

ICU admissions. Highest per 100,000 in the 65-74 year-old age group; significant rates in over-45s

And a summary of where cases are being detected in England.

This is my first post since Christmas. Since my last post, households have mixed over Christmas despite the clear new variant. We have yet to see the reflection of this mixing in the Covid rates spreading from the south-east across the country.

We are entering a dire period. Here is the map of hospitalizations and ICU admissions across the country.

It takes time for cases to turn in to hospitalizations to sadly to turn into deaths. The data here is for England. If we break it down, we can see that there are real problems in London, the South East, and the East. Other areas are following this trend.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1344555658704781314

And hospitals are seeing deaths increase significantly

https://twitter.com/HSJEditor/status/1344658916370771970

And there are *reports* that hospitals are now finding it very difficult to cope, which will lead to an increase in deaths as a result of hospitals exceeding their surge capacity.

https://twitter.com/JujuliaGrace/status/1344642392733978624

English primary schools are due to return next week. There is over 10% positivity in school-aged children. The Government seems set on pressing ahead with this. Yet look at Greenwich with a rate of 711 increasing by 16%. Schools will open here next week assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

Given the rapid spread of the new variant and the household mixing over Christmas, we should instead wait to see if R can be reduced to below 1 *before* allowing schools to return. Otherwise, it will be too late, and we will only see signals of hospitals being overwhelmed...

... when there will be weeks of people who have been infected still overwhelming hospitals even more.

Matt Hancock described the new variant as being 'out of control' bloomberg.com/news/articles/… yet the Government does not know that the measures put in place ...

... when *children are not back at school* are sufficient to bring Covid case rates and the hospital system back under control.

In my opinion, schools should not return (as it increases R) until the R number is below 1. Allowing schools to return will increase R and cost lives.

This is in the context of not one but two vaccines being approved by the MHRA bbc.co.uk/news/health-55…. All the Government's efforts should be focused on acquiring stocks of these vaccines and vaccinating people according to the JCVI priority list.

And with that, I wish everyone a happy new year. It's going to be a very difficult start to 2021, but I for one am looking forward to a *much* brighter summer.

The Government has now added London local authorities such as Greenwich have now been added to the areas with closed primary schools.

theguardian.com/education/2021…

All other local authorities in (at least) Tier 4 should have schools closed until the effect on R of the new variant and of Christmas mixing is known.

Otherwise we risk hospitals being overwhelmed in these areas and further spread to neighbouring areas.