Let's look again at the 2005-2008 two parabolic advances in $gold. first, read yesterday's thread if you haven't:



(1)
Today i want to look what some major miners did - between the 2 parabolic gold advances: how did they act?

Getting more historic context in the minds, will allow us to navigate calmer the stormy waters ahead, and HOW we want to manage them.

(2)
my basic framework is we will see a parabolic metal top mid 2021, followed by another parabolic metal top early 2023.

Now what did some miners do in a same situation: the 2006-2008 timeframe.

Notice the $GDX was launched exactly a few weeks after the 2006 top 😉

(3)
example 1 of 4 is Barrick
gold lines = 2 gold parabolic tops.

Barrick didn't advance much first, and as such had only a 23% retrace before setting a floor.

Not something you would have wanted to trade.

Even with the 50% gold parabola retrace, the metal floor was $150 higher
example 2 of 4 is Hecla

while Hecla corrected 42%, the correction was very fast in time. The new metal floor made it quickly rise back after.

Something we could have hedged with SLV puts for example.

Silver retraced 38% and traded in tandem with $gold
example 3 of 4 is Kinross

Kinross doubled and tripled during the 2 runs, it corrected 32% but also very short in time.

For traders with high tax regimes not something to trade either. A short multiweek hedge could have worked great here as well.
example 4 of 4 is Wheaton

it did a 5x and a 3x, and corrected 42% but very short in time as well, after which it started rising very fast.
i think we can deduct some very important conclusions from all the showed charts.

the initial price correction can be deep, but is fast.

the consolidation after can be very long before the next furious advance.
second, my main conclusion is small junior companies are the best vehicle. just buy & hold.

hedge on parabola's with GLD/SLV/major producer puts.

and most of all: time decay leverage can kill you totally if pourly executed

golden lessons.

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More from @TheLastDegree

1 Jan
How high can #gold run during this next intermediate cycle?

my current target stands at $2440 by May

targets are not exit points: the combination of a lot of signals/ratio's are. we adapt along the way

(1)
an 38% is fairly high for a 6month cycle
averages are 20.6% to 48.6%

the average is 30% = equal to $2300

(2)
however look at the very LT chart posted yesterday

we just had a breakout above a new high, after a multiyear bear market and advance phase

the last 5months, we backtested the breakout from this base (the red dot)

(3)
Read 7 tweets
22 Nov 20
watching closely $silver next week

while $gold futures made a lower low, the $silver low of Sept 24 is still holding with over 11% higher

this is a serious anomaly in cycle trading, not seen since... August 2010

(1)
back then in august 2010 $silver found it's low fast after 16 days, while gold needed 34 (!) days more to set the final intermediate cycle low, all those 7 trading weeks $silver refused to fall... something was brewing.

August 24, an 8 month rally started adding 178%

(2)
we have an almost identical setup now.

$Silver made it's low Sept 24, $gold made a new low more as 32 days later, while $silver kept grinding.

Something is brewing... again.
Read 4 tweets
10 Nov 20
$XAUUSD #gold
since 2018, cycles (bottom to bottom 6 month cycles) have been running a LOT longer as in 2008-2011.

We now basicly had 2 corrective retraces, and 1 crash.

$gold always uses the same trick. over and over.

(1)
it always has FBO's from intermediate drawn trendlines.

this is 2019

look at the nice false break outs and the hard drops.
top to start impulse up, was 68bars (spring) and 77bars (fall)

(2)
look again at the fall 2019 - very similar
the ABC finished Nov 12 - i think we are 1day upfront (green arrow) - looking for a low with a break, as this will turn conservative traders even more bearish

the middle ground option

(3)
Read 4 tweets
25 Oct 20
for new followers, we are looking at 2.5 years of big compounding % in #gold #silver stocks, mostly in the juniors

since April 2019, we made 400% in the first 2 violent upwaves (sept 2019 & july 2020)

(1)
we started goldventures.org which outlines are our leveraged & leveraged PF in detail, no investment advice

currently long "movable" assets

8.6Million in 60 junior positions (90% silver, 10% gold)
1.2Million in leaps on Silver majors

(2)
and physical, now 85% silver (1000 kilo) and 15% gold

no uranium, no copper, no wheat, no BTC

while all commodities and crypto's will do great, we focus on monetary metals for 100%

(3)
Read 5 tweets
29 Sep 20
what's coming (1)
The last few months, we broke ath’s.

We saw some press articles popping on SI & GC, also in very mainstream papers.

We got first awareness.

on Belgium public national radio: you lost 13% on savings accounts over 10Y

reactions: the move is probably done
what's coming (2) When silver breaks 30 next, and gold goes beyond ath’s:

FOMO will kick in on a very different level.

Momentum will mount to another scale. wave 5 scale, which is still missing and the only reason I have my seat early

I am expecting a major first top coming
what's coming (3)

after this 2 year run, bigger than we might imagine.

Most expect a longer consolidation, but expect it fast & not so orderly.
It’s doesn’t matter, I am positioned for both.

made 400% in the last 15months, expecting the same next but in HALF the time
Read 5 tweets
25 Sep 20
$GSR Gold to Silver fibonacci madness

three legs down - every leg had a clear retrace to 0.382 (last had a spike to 0.5) - we are ready Image
$GSR Gold to Silver fibonacci madness

structure is valid to spot bottoms

unfortunately measuring the extensions to find tops upfront i find nothing. Image
$GSR top spotter March-August PM leg
ultimate targets where defined by the first 1-2 down Image
Read 4 tweets

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