I've been tweeting that all the stimulus will create inflation. I want to make something clear.
I'm in favor of the stimulus to help the less fortunate, and especially those that lost their jobs via lockdowns and government restrictions.
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I've likened it to the takings clause in the constitution. If they Govt "takes" something from you (your house to build a hwy), they have to pay you fair value. Yes, lockdowns are for a good clause (so is the new hwy) but they cannot "take" it from you without FV payment.
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But "takings" come with a cost, the new hwy displaces families and destroys neighborhoods. So do lockdowns.
The necessary stimulus is coming with a cost … more inflation. This will raise interest rates and cause problems in the stock market.
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We think today's policy means, more money for the poor, a bridge for the unemployed, and larger stock portfolios for the rich. A policy with no tradeoffs or losers?
The tradeoffs will come when inflation returns. Then will find out how much the rich want to help the poor.
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After going almost a generation without meaningful inflation, many believe it has been vanquished. Aging demographics, globalization, and advancing technology have held prices down. Will this remain true in 2021?
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In the late 60s, many believed stocks were the perfect hedge against inflation. This line of thinking argued companies could raise prices along with costs, providing a barrier from inflation. This thinking is again present today. But this did not hold true in the 70s.
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Below is the inflation-adjusted SPX (orange) and DJIA (blue) from 1958 to 1995.
From the 1968 peak to the 1982 low, the S&P 500 lost 65% of its inflation-adjusted value. It was not until 1993 that the inflation-adjusted SPX exceeded its 1968 peak! 1995 for the DJIA!
Earlier, I posted this on Twitter and, predictably, all the conversation is about Mnuchin at 9%. Why?
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Remember that the limit for an account is $850. So, if you are dead sure that Mnuchin will not be the TreasSec on March 1, then deposit $850 and in an account and get an $80 profit on March 1.
This is not why people bet on @PredictIt. They want to speculate!
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So, some bettors think it makes more sense to buy Mnuchin at 9% and "hope" the Trump lawsuits or something else come along and pops this contract to 18%. Double your money!!
President-elect Joe Biden said Thursday that he has decided whom he will nominate for treasury secretary and that he will make the announcement in the coming weeks.
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And look who jumped into the lead in the betting markets (but both are still under 50%)