I've been tweeting that all the stimulus will create inflation. I want to make something clear.

I'm in favor of the stimulus to help the less fortunate, and especially those that lost their jobs via lockdowns and government restrictions.

(1/4)
I've likened it to the takings clause in the constitution. If they Govt "takes" something from you (your house to build a hwy), they have to pay you fair value. Yes, lockdowns are for a good clause (so is the new hwy) but they cannot "take" it from you without FV payment.

(2/4)
But "takings" come with a cost, the new hwy displaces families and destroys neighborhoods. So do lockdowns.

The necessary stimulus is coming with a cost … more inflation. This will raise interest rates and cause problems in the stock market.

(3/4)
We think today's policy means, more money for the poor, a bridge for the unemployed, and larger stock portfolios for the rich. A policy with no tradeoffs or losers?

The tradeoffs will come when inflation returns. Then will find out how much the rich want to help the poor.
(4/4)

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Jim Bianco

Jim Bianco Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @biancoresearch

30 Dec 20
What Does Inflation Mean?

After going almost a generation without meaningful inflation, many believe it has been vanquished. Aging demographics, globalization, and advancing technology have held prices down. Will this remain true in 2021?

(1/5)
In the late 60s, many believed stocks were the perfect hedge against inflation. This line of thinking argued companies could raise prices along with costs, providing a barrier from inflation. This thinking is again present today. But this did not hold true in the 70s.

(2/5)
Below is the inflation-adjusted SPX (orange) and DJIA (blue) from 1958 to 1995.

From the 1968 peak to the 1982 low, the S&P 500 lost 65% of its inflation-adjusted value. It was not until 1993 that the inflation-adjusted SPX exceeded its 1968 peak! 1995 for the DJIA!

(3/5)
Read 5 tweets
29 Dec 20
CRB Raw Industrial Spot up 25% since April.

It is made up of largely non-fut traded commods, so should not be subject to speculative money flows

Hides, tallow, copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, zinc, tin, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, rosin, and rubber.

(1/6)
Typically this is good coincident indciator with interest rates. But now is diverging in a big way.

(2/6)
What does rising raw industrials mean? The simplest answer is NOMINAL economic growth is accelerating.

Nom Growth = Real Growth Plus Inflation

The last 25 yrs have seen nominal growth led by an increase in the real growth. These have become interchangeable terms to many.

(3/6)
Read 6 tweets
23 Nov 20
Earlier, I posted this on Twitter and, predictably, all the conversation is about Mnuchin at 9%. Why?

(1/7)
Remember that the limit for an account is $850. So, if you are dead sure that Mnuchin will not be the TreasSec on March 1, then deposit $850 and in an account and get an $80 profit on March 1.

This is not why people bet on @PredictIt. They want to speculate!

(2/7)
So, some bettors think it makes more sense to buy Mnuchin at 9% and "hope" the Trump lawsuits or something else come along and pops this contract to 18%. Double your money!!

(3/7)
Read 7 tweets
21 Nov 20
Some new charts ...

% of a State's beds used by COVID patients.

The thick black line is the US National Average

Also shown is the four highest % states (SD, NE, IL, WI) and the four lowest (VT, HI, ME, NH)

@ErikSTownsend @chrismartenson @EpsilonTheory @MishGEA @ttmygh

(1/4)
Here is the raw number of beds being used nationally by COVID patients

(2/4)
Here is the raw number of IL beds used by COVID patients. IL is #3 nationally and the largest four states with the highest % of bed used by CV19..

Note the growth in the last month

(3/4)
Read 4 tweets
20 Nov 20
nbcnews.com/business/econo…

President-elect Joe Biden said Thursday that he has decided whom he will nominate for treasury secretary and that he will make the announcement in the coming weeks.

(1/2)
And look who jumped into the lead in the betting markets (but both are still under 50%)

(2/2)
Interesting update
Read 4 tweets
24 Oct 20
The United States
(1/4)

Deaths, survival, and hospitalizations, are important but they do not drive behavior and policy. The "reaction function" is case counts.

When does this rise stop? What should the US do?

@ErikSTownsend @ttmygh @EpsilonTheory @chrismartenson @MishGEA
The Midwest
(2/4)

WI and OH are swing states? How does this impact them?

1. Blame Trump?
2. Republicans will vote, Democrats will stay home?
Western Europe

Does this vertical rise stop double again in the next few weeks? Double after that? Or is it peaking now?

When does it stop? What should Europe do?
(3/4)
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!