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Chris Giles Profile picture
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3 Jan, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Why the prime minister said additional measures might* be necassary

*will

1) Almost no local areas in England are now Covid-free (worse than early Nov)
2) Local areas with high prevalence rates are soaring

There is an exception for the very highest rates, which is probably just noise (but something to watch)
3) And the mean rate per local area (middle layer super output areas with roughly 7,500 in each) is rising very rapidly

Note: this data is up to 28 December. When 29th is added today, it will look worse
For more - on the broad regional trends and hospitalisations, see @jburnmurdoch
@jburnmurdoch The one saving grace at the moment is that the case data rapid growth is not yet showing up in excess deaths.

We would not expect it to do so yet and the next three weeks of @ONS data will be revealing.

ENDS

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More from @ChrisGiles_

Chris Giles Profile picture
30 Dec 20
After the latest official figures of UK deaths, the latest estimate of the number of excess deaths since mid March across the UK is

86,000

This is a depressing and very high number, but the latest trends are interesting and have some more positive elements

1/
Of this estimate 82,500 have been registered with 3,500 estimated to have occured since the latedt data which runs to 18 December

Interesting facts:

The daily pattern of excess deaths has not accelerated yet even though case numbers have since the end of the November lockdown
There are now 50% more deaths reported by the government & on death certificates than excess deaths in corresponding periods (note December here is not the full month)

This means:
- testing is working now
- Some of those dying with Covid would have died anyway

3/
Read 6 tweets
Chris Giles Profile picture
29 Dec 20
So,

I went to Calais yesterday to look at plans for implementing the Brexit deal at the most important freight border...

...don’t expect a rerun of the pre-Christmas chaos and queues, operators say

1/ ft.com/content/0e076e…
Why?

Traffic will be low as huge stockpiling to avoid Brexit. The UK won’t be doing much checking; it isn’t ready. And the French infrastructure is impressive at the tunnel and the port

Here is the new customs bays for example, ready to go and look how empty Calais port was

2/
The big question will be the numbers of trucks that rock up without the required £7bn a year of new red tape paperwork

(Yes this is a non tariff barrier Boris)

There are 250 lorry parking places at the French side of the tunnel and customs agents ready to help.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Chris Giles Profile picture
22 Dec 20
When it's all pretty grim on the Covid-19 front, here is a piece of relatively good news...

There are now fewer excess deaths in the second wave than we might have expected

1/
In March and April, there were regularly roughly twice the number to total excess deaths than those recorded by the government after a positive Covid-19 test

In October, November and December, there have been fewer - about 75 to 80% of the number from the daily totals

why?

2/
Obviously, we cannot know for sure, but here are some potential explanations

-It's a blip and excess deaths will start rising.

Unlikely, unless register offices have suddenly changed their practices

3/
Read 10 tweets
Chris Giles Profile picture
18 Dec 20
UPDATE: After the latest data on excess deaths and people dying in hospitals, the up to date estimate of the number of UK deaths linked to coronavirus since mid-March is

84,800

This has been a bad week for virus cases, but a good week for excess deaths

1/
Excess deaths were low in England & Wales in the latest data and also in Scotland and Northern Ireland. It might be the effects of the lockdown or it might be a changing relationship between deaths in hospitals and excess deaths.

Daily pattern is v different to first wave

2/
Sadly, with the rapid rise in cases in the past two weeks and signs of acceleration, you'd have to be reckless to think the lower levels of excess deaths will continue

ENDS
Read 4 tweets
Chris Giles Profile picture
17 Dec 20
Harrods and fishing - a thread

For the benefit of @christopherhope who was correct on the telly today

and Paul Stains - @GuidoFawkes - who wasn't

tl:dr Harrods is worth more to the UK economy than fishing....

... has been for a few years.

... now not even close

1/
@christopherhope @GuidoFawkes This first arose when I calculated the fact and stated clearly the underlying rationale in a 2018 column and a tweet



2/
@christopherhope @GuidoFawkes Having been true but forgotton, it came up today and then Paul Stains started to pretend it was false, and then, when I demonstrated it wasn't, to suggest my facts were mere "conjecture"

3/
Read 14 tweets
Chris Giles Profile picture
17 Dec 20
Maybe you should do some proper research.

As you know, it's a GVA calculation not exports

The Harrods accounts are not just the store itself, but the GVA of the concessions that operate within the building (which are estimated from the staffing cost)
Now - where your attempted putdown is really badly wrong is in a comparison of GVA with the value of fish exports.

Has it occured to you that within the £2bn of fish exports will be:
- imported fish (we process in the UK)
- value of buying, selling and transporting fish...
These are the GVA of respectively
- the food manufacturing sector
- the distribution sector
- the wholsaleing sector

plus there will be many other business services GVA in fish exports

..... and
Read 4 tweets

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