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Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
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3 Jan, 6 tweets, 3 min read
Contrary to breathless media reporting, land-falling US hurricanes — the most reliable hurricane indicator — does not show an increasing number of hurricanes since 1900

Update of my free, peer-reviewed sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Scared witless has real impacts

Half the world now believe climate change will make humanity go extinct

Reality? UN expects average person in 2100 to be 450% richer. Climate will make that 434%. Problem, not end-of-world

My new book (free first 25p): ow.ly/HUkU50A9v1o
Yes, 2020 Atlantic hurricane season very powerful

But Accumulated Cyclone Energy (the integrated metric of frequency, intensity+duration):

2020 only 14th-strongest

1933 — almost a century ago — still strongest, followed by 2005, 2017, 1893 and 1926

journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article/d…
Across 2020, we were told the unprecedented numbers of named Atlantic storms showed global warming

Contrary to climate science: UN Climate Panel finds stronger but *fewer* hurricanes
p178 ipcc.ch/sr15/

Fewer is better, but stronger is worse, so climate still a problem
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration similarly finds that global warming will increase worst hurricanes by 5%, but reduce frequency of all hurricanes by 25%

gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming…
Why US landfalling hurricanes a better metric, see

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More from @BjornLomborg

Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
4 Jan
Contrary to breathless climate reporting, number of major landfalling US hurricanes — the most reliable hurricane indicator — has not increased since 1900

(Notice unprecedented major hurricane drought from 2006-16)

Update of my free, peer-reviewed sciencedirect.com/science/articl… Image
Scared witless has real impacts

Half the world now believe climate change will make humanity go extinct

Reality? UN expects average person in 2100 to be 450% richer. Climate will make that 434%. Problem, not end-of-world

My new book (free first 25p): ow.ly/HUkU50A9v1o Image
Similarly: Despite breathless climate reporting, the number of landfalling US hurricanes does not show an increase since 1900

Update of my free, peer-reviewed sciencedirect.com/science/articl… Image
Read 4 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
21 Nov 20
Why do we donate so much time+money inefficiently?

We care about effectiveness when giving to ourselves or our family

When giving to strangers, we care about what *others* think about us (they don't evaluate us on effectiveness)

nature.com/articles/s4156…
If our giving is multiplied 10x by, say, Gates, we should give more (because your dollar will mean $10 to the good cause)

But we don't give more to charity

If Gates multiplied a giving to ourselves, we *do* give more

nature.com/articles/s4156…
Getting us to give effectively is just very, very hard.

We mostly give in ways that are "reputationally lucrative" — ways that make us look good among our peers

nature.com/articles/s4156…
Read 4 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
18 Nov 20
Great we're again discussing the real and manmade problem of climate

But let's get the facts straight

Hurricanes are not increasing in frequency

The best way to help Central America is not climate policy but helping them out of poverty

journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article/9…
Best long-term data is US landfalling hurricanes, because reliably recorded since 1900

Frequency of all hurricanes *not* increasing

Frequency of strongest hurricanes (Cat3+) *not* increasing

journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article/9…
Just using data across entire Atlantic has two problems:

1) Earlier years, especially after opening of Panama Canal, many storms missed

Here observations of the two strongest hurricane years 1933 and 2005

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.102…
Read 15 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
18 Nov 20
Great we're again discussing the real and manmade problem of climate

But let's get the facts straight

Hurricanes are not increasing in frequency

The best way to help Central America is not climate policy but lifting them out of poverty

journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article/9…
Best long-term data is US landfalling hurricanes, because reliably recorded since 1900

Frequency of all hurricanes *not* increasing

Frequency of strongest hurricanes (Cat3+) *not* increasing

journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article/9…
Just using storm frequency across entire Atlantic has two problems:

1) Earlier years, especially after opening of Panama Canal, many storms missed

Here observations of the two strongest hurricane years 1933 and 2005

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.102…
Read 15 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
14 Oct 20
New UN report claims climate-related disasters have doubled

The report is incompetent and wrong on pretty much all accounts

The report should be withdrawn

Thread

Report here: undrr.org/news/drrday-re…
Data here: public.emdat.be
New UN report claims climate-related disasters doubled

Yet, even the report's own data shows the number of climate-related dead has *halved*

Report here: undrr.org/news/drrday-re…
Data here: public.emdat.be
Death data is relatively robust

Instead, almost all non-death data is much better reported towards the present. That is the main reason the UN finds an increase in numbers.

Yet, they simply wave it away

Report here: undrr.org/news/drrday-re…
Read 20 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
17 Sep 20
Only people born *after* 2050 will experience net benefits from climate policy

Costs come soon, benefits much later

Optimal policy still worth having, but shows why climate policy so difficult:

Convincing people to pay, *none of whom will net benefit*

iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
Climate policy leads to net-costs until 2080

New paper shows how climate policy costs come soon, whereas benefits mostly accrue much later

In total, the optimal policy is still worth having, but it shows why doing climate policy is so difficult

iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
Climate policy only becomes net-benefit after 2080, irrespective of climate costs or climate policy costs doubling or halving (if climate is worse than expected, we'll do more climate policy, hence pay more, hence break-even still in 2080)

iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
Read 4 tweets

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