With 2020 now in the rear view mirror, I thought it might be fun to post some 2020 $TSLA hater predictions gone wrong.

Matthew Battle:
🥴 “75,000 or less Model 3s in 2019 and even less in 2020.”

I’ll reply with a few more below and you can play along by adding your own.
@zekeboy4:
“Don’t think Tesla will be able to produce 300K cars/yr for the next 3 years”
Thomas Smith:
“No real earnings until after the BK process is resolved and new equity owners are brought on”.
@KingPickleRick1 :
“Tesla will lose >$700 million again in 2020”
@fartsmajeure :
The first Model 3 will roll off the line at GF3 in “4Q 2020 at the earliest”.
Sir @fraudalot :
Tesla “hasn’t been EPS positive for a full year in its history. Finding it likely that 2020 won’t break the pattern.”
@Commuternyc :
“The competition for EV cars is coming but frankly there are so many other reasons $TSLA will fail it doesn’t even matter if there is competition for EV cars or not.”

“No profits ever.”
@auto_cynical :
“That’s cute that you think Tesla will be in business a couple of years from now.”
@thethomasbrand :
“I would go short {$TSLA} again today if I had to decide again”
—Steven Walter Thomas, M.Ed, January 13, 2020
@evdefender and @gwestr :

$TSLA Q1 2020 loss will exceed ($1B)
@wolfejosh :
“I have lost no money {shorting $TSLA}. I have long-dated OTM puts.”
($300 strike pre-split, $60 split-adjusted)
— Josh Wolfe, July 8, 2018
@agusnox :
“Has Tesla sold or will sell 500k in 2020? No.”

Cc: @TSLAQQ
@valueanalyst1 :
(I can’t quote this one; Twitter might automatically suspend my account.)
@orthereaboot :
“Tesla is 2+ years away from their version of mass producing the Y”
— “Luis Carruthers” (pseudonym), March 7, 2019
@tab354 :
“They’ll never actually close on this... this is just to perpetuate the illusion that they are ‘expanding into China’.”
And I guess I should stop at some point. Here’s a 3-for-1:
@paul91701736 @KingPickleRick1 @sklippitt

Cc: @freshjiva @defnotES2

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with James Stephenson

James Stephenson Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ICannot_Enough

3 Jan
I have updated my $TSLA forecast with the reported Q4 deliveries.

Q4 looks like a ~$2.3B GAAP profit to me, including an unusual ~$1.6B benefit (deferred tax asset from prior years' losses) that will surprise many.

Adj. EBITDA is highlighted below for better comparability. Image
Total revenue per delivery should be down slightly, mostly due to sales mix (more 3/Y, less S/X). Automotive Revenue will break the previous quarterly record easily. Image
Total revenue should exceed $10B for the first time.

I have Total gross margin at 22.3%, not to be confused with Automotive gross margin of 26.0% with regulatory credits or 24.3% without.

The DTA benefit appears on the Provision/(Benefit) for Income Taxes line. Image
Read 13 tweets
1 Nov 20
Here is my latest $TSLA forecast thread. Many numbers for those who like numbers & many charts for those who like charts.

Where does Tesla have left to go, after breaking all the records in Q3 2020?? They're just going to keep setting higher records. 🔌🔋⚡️🚗🚀📈
After Elon's stock-based compensation expense hit a record high in Q3, I saw some people worry that the expense will just keep rising every quarter. Fear not, $TSLA owner: that non-cash expense a) isn't real and b) has probably peaked (see 4th slide).
These charts are just different ways of showing Tesla's revenue growth and improving cost efficiencies which together lead to increasing profitability.
Read 19 tweets
25 Oct 20
I tweet a lot of charts showing how $TSLA has grown delivery volume and revenue dollars exponentially over the years, but here's a different way of slicing the data completely:

How does Tesla's average dollar of revenue break down by source? How does that change over time?
As you can see, Leasing, Energy, and Services & Other have had a hard time keeping up with the explosive growth in Automotive Sales and thus Regulatory Credit sales.

You may now be wondering how Tesla *spends* its average dollar of revenue. I was wondering the same thing...
When Tesla spent more than the whole dollar, it posted Non-GAAP losses; when it spent less than the whole dollar, it posed Non-GAAP profits.

Revenue growth levers against fixed costs.
Read 4 tweets
11 Oct 20
Earlier this month, Tesla reported Q3 deliveries smashing the previous quarterly record by more than 24%.

Tesla has broken such records frequently for many years, and I’m projecting they’ll continue doing so (see S3XY chart):
$TSLA
But reality doesn’t fit the short sellers’ narrative, so @TESLACharts responded exactly as you’d expect: by picking cherries.

The best he could do is this chart. It shows 2020 sales in a country that’s home to less than 0.1% of the world’s population: Norway.
What’s misleading about that chart? Context.

Here’s how those 2 vehicles are selling in the context of other models, years, and nearby countries.

Note that Tesla sold more than 5x as many Model 3s in Norway last year (its first year of availability) as the ID.3 has sold so far.
Read 4 tweets
3 Oct 20
Here is my latest $TSLA forecast, updated with this morning's delivery report.

I cannot underscore enough: EVs are the future of transportation and- so far- only Tesla has figured out how to make them profitably.
Tesla's Adjusted EBITDA (profit) will rise as quarterly deliveries increase.
Here's how Tesla S3XY deliveries have grown and will continue to grow. Since Tesla no longer reports deliveries of S separately from X or 3 separately from Y, I have to make educated guesses in my forecast model.
Read 5 tweets
27 Sep 20
I'd wager Steve's more or less right about "Project Roadrunner" (Tesla's ground-up rethink of how to make batteries better):

@elonmusk 's favorite airplane, the A-12 Archangel, carried zero defensive countermeasures because it flew so high, so fast, nothing could shoot it down.
That aircraft later developed into the SR-71 Blackbird, but the original designer, Clarence "Kelly" Johnson at Lockheed's Skunkworks, called it the A-12... so that's what Elon calls it.

He also says, "the best process is no process; the best part is no part."
The SR-71 Blackbird‘s strategy for evading danger was the same as mine is in my Tesla: punch it and watch the threat disappear in the rearview mirror. Image
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!