Thread by @ICannot_Enough

I have updated my $TSLA forecast with the reported Q4 deliveries.

Q4 looks like a ~$2.3B GAAP profit to me, including an unusual ~$1.6B benefit (deferred tax asset from prior years' losses) that will surprise many.

Adj. EBITDA is highlighted below for better comparability.

Total revenue per delivery should be down slightly, mostly due to sales mix (more 3/Y, less S/X). Automotive Revenue will break the previous quarterly record easily.

Total revenue should exceed $10B for the first time.

I have Total gross margin at 22.3%, not to be confused with Automotive gross margin of 26.0% with regulatory credits or 24.3% without.

The DTA benefit appears on the Provision/(Benefit) for Income Taxes line.

I'm forecasting Shanghai Model Y deliveries to begin in Q1, Berlin Model Y in Q2, Texas Semi & Model Y in Q3, and Texas Cybertruck in Q4.

Seems like a lot of Texas complexity & execution risk in a short time period, so we'll see what happens.

Here's a chart showing Adjusted EBITDA by quarter. This is the profitability metric used in Elon's stock compensation plan. It excludes the tax benefit impacts because it's pre-tax profit.

Here's a S3XY chart. 🤗

Here's a chart showing total production vs. deliveries.

Here's how I'm forecasting the spread of Elon's compensation expense accrual over time. This is a non-cash expense.

This is how Tesla's gross profit has grown.

Here's what @TeslaCharts ' revenue chart would look like if he updated it.

Here's a chart showing how Tesla's revenue breakdown by source over time, including my forecast for next year, smoothed using a 12-trailing month average:

Here's another similar chart, except it shows how Tesla spends its revenue. In the quarters when Tesla spent more than its total sales, there was a loss. In the quarters they spent less than they brought in, there was a profit.

... and finally, here's another way of visualizing Tesla's production, deliveries, and inventory.