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Marc Caputo Profile picture
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3 Jan, 4 tweets, 2 min read
RIP: Gerry Marsden of Gerry and the Peacemakers, famous for “You’ll Never Walk Alone,” which became the anthem for Liverpool Football Club, the singing of which is in the background of 1 of my favorite Pink Floyd songs, “Fearless”

Here’s the original 1/2
2/2 Here’s Fearless, for those who love the Floyd

👇
Either I misspelled or it autocorrected. But here we are

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More from @MarcACaputo

Marc Caputo Profile picture
5 Jan
1 of 4

There are four ingredients that would make for a Democratic win in Georgia today, as we outlined in Politico Playbook

First up: strong Black voter turnout, where the overall share of the African-American vote is 30% or more

politi.co/2MrDNwC Image
2: There are signs that Trump voters in Georgia were underperforming in in the northern part of the state —hence Trump’s rally in Dalton— and among white voters without a college degree.

politi.co/2MrDNwC Image
3: In the Nov. elections, Biden won 11,779 more Georgia votes than Trump, but Sen. Perdue won 88k more votes than Ossoff.

There were ticket-splitters, esp. white suburbanites. Can the Dems win some of these folks in the runoffs? Will they stay home?

politi.co/2MrDNwC Image
Read 4 tweets
Marc Caputo Profile picture
4 Dec 20
Ware County Election Supervisor Carlos Nelson told me this is false: No one has obtained any machine from his office. There was a human-error tabulation issue discovered during the hand recount, the tallies of which were matched by the just-ended machine recount
2/6 According to Nelson: this involved absentee ballots and human error with tabulation equipment, which have nothing to do with the Dominion voting machines that people use to mark their ballots on Election Day at the precinct.
3/6 Ware County elections workers scanned a batch of ballots but there was a jam during the tabulating process. So ballots needed to be re-scanned. The ballots were then rescanned/tabulated, but they forgot to erase the prior scan
Read 6 tweets
Marc Caputo Profile picture
4 Nov 20
Tweet 1 of 11

How could Trump win Florida?

Let us take you on a tour @Politico, starting with

12/4/18

“The Democrats’ Hispanic Problem”

politi.co/2mlBdvn
2/11

01/25/19

“Florida is Trump’s state to lose”

It’s not just Hispanic voters, it’s white and black voters, too

politi.co/32aGNCx
3/11

01/30/19

“Trump Venezuela policy scores in Florida”

Notice that it’s not just about Cuban voters for Trump; Miami is key. He’s playing on his opponents’ half of the field

politi.co/2IzoQmG
Read 11 tweets
Marc Caputo Profile picture
4 Nov 20
Tweet 1 of 4
Florida has 67 counties but since presidential campaigns are marketing efforts that orient spending by media market, here are the preliminary 2020 election results broken down by those 10 regions (thanks @DavidCypkin for the graphics!)

Story: politi.co/2TSugzg
2/4 Here's a side-by-side of 2020 vs. 2016
3/4 More background
Read 4 tweets
Marc Caputo Profile picture
2 Nov 20
1/4

Who will win Florida? I really don't know. My feeling changes by the minute, interview & data set, the latter 2 of which I've swum in. I can see it being very close or near 3 (a Florida landslide lol). I default to "very close" because of interviews & data, inc. poll avgs
2/4
As for FL polls, if you don't have a 1k sample w/Hispanic oversample, be very wary of relying on its toplines. Many don't provide party breaks (% of Rs, Ds & Is voting for the candidates). Use polls as a guidepost, but pay attn to its partisan/electorate composition, to
3/4 FL has a D+1 electorate right now (Ds cast 39% of ballots; Rs 38%). Rs are expected to change that Election Day but by how much?

Ds think Biden wins R+1 & R+2 electorate. Rs say no to the latter maybe to the former.

Historically, Ds win in D+ electorates, Rs win in R+ years
Read 4 tweets
Marc Caputo Profile picture
2 Nov 20
Tweet 1 of 3

Democrats stopped the bleeding on the last day of early voting, gaining a new 13k early ballots on Republicans. Dem margin: 108,123, which should grow as more ABs come in

Total votes: 9m
Rep: 3.4m (38%)
Dem: 3.5m (39%)
Ind: 2.1m (23%)

politi.co/3mBC1Ga
Tweet 2/3

Today's 10k foot view story of what we're looking at is here
politi.co/3mBC1Ga
Tweet 3/3

Background threads on how we got here, the differences between counting ballots vs. tabulating votes, independents etc.

Read 4 tweets

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