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Orla Hegarty Profile picture
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4 Jan, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Rough science, on impact of pubs & restaurants opening

Dublin indoor dining closed for 4wks (shops, schools & home visits open)
16 Sept 136 cases
16 Oct 254 cases

Dublin indoor dining open for 3wks (shops, schools & home visits part open)
4 Dec 84 cases
4 Jan 3,655 cases
all other counties (ex Dublin), as above but with indoor dining open 16 Sept-16 Oct

16 Sept 118 cases
16 Oct 746 cases

4 Dec 181 cases
4 Jan 2,455 cases
‘super-spreading clusters almost overwhelmingly occur in poorly ventilated, indoor environments where many congregate over time.. For super-spreading to occur, multiple things have to happen at same time, & risk is not equal in every setting & activity’
theatlantic.com/health/archive…
super-spread risk in pubs & restaurant: ‘indoors, talking & singing, large numbers, no masks, poor ventilation, long duration’

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More from @Orla_Hegarty

Orla Hegarty Profile picture
9 Jan
[Thread] #Covid19 Indoor dining super-spread

‘Eleven of the 37 patrons who dined at the Smile Buffalo Thai restaurant on the night of December 21 tested positive to the virus, after visiting between 7pm & 9.30pm’ 1/
theage.com.au/national/victo…
‘virus can spread more than three times the six-foot (2m) range in just five minutes

Two diners were infected with Covid-19 from a third, asymptomatic diner who sat 21 feet (6.4m) away’ 2/ forbes.com/sites/suzanner…
‘one restaurant in Cork was the starting point of a cluster that has caused 57 Covid cases so far’

‘We have to cut down the size of these clusters, we have to cut down socialisation if we are going to get on top of this disease’ - @ronan_glynn (1 Oct) 3/
irishexaminer.com/news/arid-4005…
Read 17 tweets
Orla Hegarty Profile picture
9 Jan
Outbreaks in food processing is due to building operation for energy efficiency/cost saving by recirculating cold, dry air

In a German meat plant transmission was recorded at 8m.. so they fixed the ventilation

High risk indoor conditions are ~all~ preventable @SamuelMcConkey1
‘Cold and stale air conditions allowed coronavirus particles to travel more than 8 meters (26 feet) at a German slaughterhouse, a study showed, giving an insight into how meat plants turned into hotspots for infections across the world’
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/3 of ~all~ workplace outbreak cases in Ireland have been in meat/poultry/fish processing plants (that’s fewer than 150 buildings)

6 outbreaks are currently open, range 3 to 72 cases in open outbreaks

In a Cork meat plant outbreak ~226~ were infected
hpsc.ie/a-z/respirator…
Read 4 tweets
Orla Hegarty Profile picture
7 Jan
Japan adopted “3 Cs” of #Covid19 prevention in February 2020

🦠 Avoid CLOSE contact situations, keep distance
🦠Avoid CROWDS, risks are higher
🦠Avoid CLOSED, poorly ventilated space, virus spreads like smoke indoors
😷 Wear MASKS

Science-based rules work Image
Japan (population 126 million) is now trying to control the ~latest wave~ of coronavirus, with cases running at record levels of 3,000 to 4,000 a day, of which about 1,000 are in Tokyo’

Ireland (pop 5 million) is currently close to 10,000 new cases a day irishtimes.com/news/world/asi…
Japan is in similar high risk environmental zone as Ireland (30-50° latitude, winter conditions 5-11°C with low absolute humidity) Image
Read 4 tweets
Orla Hegarty Profile picture
7 Jan
So Ireland INCREASED coal burning in the middle of an ENVIRONMENTAL pandemic where air pollution makes both virus spread & respiratory illness WORSE.. because ‘two electricity lines exported electricity to Britain, where prices were higher’ #COVID19ireland
irishtimes.com/business/energ…
Moneypoint, Ireland’s largest electricity generating station, is coal burning & the countries largest emitter of greenhouse gases @ESBNetworks @EPAAirQuality

Moneypoint location & air quality on @BreezoMeter this morning (prevailing winds from south west) Image
Environmental conditions are really bad for #Covid19 spread this week- very low temperatures, low absolute humidity, light winds, high environmental pollution

This will not give #lockdown drop in cases of April/May

@BreezoMeter last night, many homes burning solid fuel in 0°C Image
Read 4 tweets
Orla Hegarty Profile picture
6 Jan
[Thread] Understanding the science of HOW #Covid19 spreads is the key to breaking the chain & stopping new infections

Here’s the work of world leading scientists

Dr Don Milton, Professor of Applied Environmental Health, University of Maryland 1/
Professor of Chemistry Jose-Luis Jiminez of University of Colorado @jljcolorado 2/
Professor of Atmospheric Chemistry Kimberly Prather of University of California San Diego 3/
Read 9 tweets
Orla Hegarty Profile picture
29 Nov 20
Lots of interest in #Covid19 #ventilation (finally!) so he’s a round up of threads to stop the virus spread
(many threads are webpages here: threadreaderapp.com/user/Orla_Hega… ) 1/
#Covid19 is inhaled, avoid it by breathing clean air 2/
#Covid19 spread can be easily reduced by manipulating indoor air conditions 3/
Read 14 tweets

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