Thread by @DavidSteadson

258 new #covid19sverige deaths reported today, taking the total to 8985. As noted earlier, this data is not even close to up to date due to holidays. Oldest change +1 to Nov 7. Additions to every day from Dec 9. Current peaks 83 on Dec 10 and Dec 14. 35 deaths with no date.

For new followers, each line on the graphs is the data as reported on a particular day. New reports update the data on many previous days, hence the curve keeps changing. Not understanding this leads to believing a plateau has been reached when in fact it is just an artefact.

This is even more apparent when we look at the rolling 7-day average of deaths per day. It always looks as if things are improving. As data updates, you can find it was an illusion. Current peak at 76 on Dec 16 and 17, up from 71.

Case data is currently extremely unreliable for judging the status of the pandemic. Many regions have limited testing due to capacity problems - at least one for example now only test people over 70. Others limited testing over the Christmas/NYE break. Do not believe this drop.

Hospitalisations continue to increase, far exceeding wave 1.

ICU utilisation also increasing, now at a wave 2 high of 377. Note that this data also lags by several days, so the reality for today is likely higher.

Thomas Lindén from the National Board of Health and Welfare said in today's press conference "developments in recent weeks are uncertain because we lack data"

In my opinion this is borders on criminal negligence. The idea that it's more important that a few people have holidays than it is to be able to react in a timely fashion to a deadly pandemic is simply unfathomable.

Of course, unreliable data matters little to Anders Tegnell, the eternal optimist, who reports the pandemic appears to have started to turn around in Stockholm.

Maybe it has. Current case data can't be used to claim it, and Stockholm hospitalisation data is also unclear

A slight dip and plateau through Christmas NY but increasing again yesterday. Some weeks ago I predicted we might get some relief at this time following holidays. That ends over the next few days.

In the most concerning news, there has been little testing for the UK variant of the virus that is more transmissible, but despite that they have already found one case they have been unable to connect to travel from the UK.

This means it is in the community.

This is no surprise since there is no requirement for testing or quarantine of Swedish citizens returning from the UK, though it is recommended. Unfortunately there's been many reports of returnees trying to be tested but unable to do so as they don't have Swedish residency.

Absurd.

People returning to schools and work this week, and the UK variant on the loose. There is no reason to believe things have turned around anywhere.