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6 Jan, 4 tweets, 2 min read
The CMI has published its Mortality Monitor for Week 52 for England and Wales. It judges the best comparison for excess deaths to be against 2019, and on this basis (chart 2), the excess has now reached 13%, all of which arose during the last 9 months. 1/4 actuaries.org.uk/system/files/f… Image
The latest week has an excess of 51%, but this is a result of the timing of the Bank Holiday this year, so is not representative of the true picture. The next two weeks (including the final week 53, and first week of 2021) are likely to be similarly distorted. 2/4
This analysis uses age-standardised mortality, which adjusts for changes in population size and age distribution, and is thus a better measure. With an ageing population it typically produces lower percentage excesses than a simple death count would.
In total, the CMI now estimates 68,600 excess mortality for E&W and 75k for the UK in total, of which 13,300 (E&W) or 14,400 (UK) have occurred in the second wave. It views 2019 as the appropriate benchmark as mortality was tracking 19 very closely until the pandemic started. 4/4 Image

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More from @john_actuary

John Roberts Profile picture
8 Jan
The latest update from @ICNARC on COVID intensive care activity has been published, summarised here on behalf of @COVID19actuary. We've now passed a sobering milestone with more admissions (12,115) in the second wave than the first (10,935), with 2,938 in the last 14 days. 1/18 Image
Here's the recent geographical split, and the emphasis on London and surrounding regions is as clear as it is not surprising. Only the East and London have yet to pass their first wave total, and at current rates, they will do so in the next few days. This data is to 7 Jan. 2/18 Image
The recent upsurge is very clear here, after a slight dip following the November lockdown. Whilst the early phase of the second wave was much less severe than in March, the recent increase is not dissimilar, and from a base of a much higher level of activity. 3/18 Image
Read 18 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
8 Jan
The latest infection surveillance report from @ONS is out. The headline numbers are the same as in the ad-hoc update earlier this week as the data is still to Jan 2, but we now have some more detail. In England, infection levels have increased dramatically. Let's take a look.1/11 Image
For England it's estimated that an average of 1.12m people had the infection during the week ended Jan 2nd, representing 2.1% of the community population, or 1 in 50. This rate has doubled in a month. 2/11 Image
Regionally there are some signs that London is levelling off, but at an exceptionally high rate of 3.5%. The West Midlands, East and SE might also be levelling, but infections are still growing elsewhere. 3/11 Image
Read 11 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
1 Jan
The latest @ICNARC update on ICU activity was published yesterday, and is summarised here on behalf of @COVID19actuary. Focussing on patient numbers (as outcomes are little changed), there's a clear upswing in admissions in the south east of the country, particularly London. 1/12
Five areas have now surpassed their first wave total and in total the figure is now at 93% of the first wave and will be exceeded in the next week at current rates of admission. 2/12
A visual representation of how the second wave has been more spread than the first, and also how the numbers are rising again after falling during the second half of November. The current gradient looks steeper than anything seen to date in this wave. 3/12
Read 13 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
31 Dec 20
The @ONS issued an ad-hoc update of infectivity levels yesterday, covering the period up to Dec 23rd. It suggests by that date, 1.7% or 932,000 were infected in England, a 38% increase in 7 days. These modelled estimates do smooth the data, but the rate of increase is clear. 1/5 Image
The regional picture will come as no surprise, with infectivity in London put at 3.5%, up 60% in a week. That's very consistent with recent admissions growth in London. As this data is a week old, today's admissions broadly equate to infections for the latest week shown. 2/5 Image
There's also data on prevalence of the new variant, now (or should I say, "then") over 70% in the wider south and east part of England, less than half of that in most other regions. 3/5 Image
Read 5 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
24 Nov 20
The latest data on registered deaths shows a continued increase in excess deaths, and we've now passed the grim milestone of exceeding 2019 total deaths. I've seen comment that the recent xs is due to a catch up of registrations. There's no evidence of that as we can see... 1/3
The ONS helpfully provides an estimate of weekly deaths by date of death. Recent weeks have more uncertainty, as a smaller proportion of the eventual total has been registered, but it's clear that the view is still of continuing increases. 2/3
This data is all just based on the weekly raw death numbers. As @ActuarybyDay notes, a better view, adjusting for population growth and ageing of the population will be published later today by the CMI, and we will link to it with analysis when released. 3/3
Read 4 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
17 Nov 20
The actuarial profession's CMI has produced its weekly update on mortality during the pandemic. It reports that in the latest week (to 6th Nov) excess deaths were 9% above expectation. Some more context to follow. 1/11
The analysis uses age standardised mortality rates, which adjusts for changes in the size/age dist'n of the pop'n. This gives a better answer than using numbers of deaths - typically you get a lower excess as our population is ageing, so we would expect more deaths each yr. 2/11
This chart compares 2020 with the average of 10-19. Note that as mortality has improved over the decade you would expect more recent years to be lower, and vice versa. Note also how close 20 was tracking to 19 before late March. You can see the line drifting up again now. 3/11
Read 11 tweets

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