1/ The euphoria is intoxicating, but #crypto is in need of a pullback and consolidation if $BTC wants to reach into the $100Ks and $ETH into the mid-to-high thousands.
2/ That doesn't mean this #crypto bull market would be over, but rather a period to recharge for another wave.
3/ A useful analogy here is #crypto's bull markets are composed of a set of waves.
In the ocean, a big set can have 3-10 distinct waves that the pack tries to catch.
In the ocean, a big set can have 3-10 distinct waves that the pack tries to catch.
4/ In #crypto's markets, I'll define a wave as at least 4 straight weeks of green candles, on the weeklies.
That equals ~1 month of green, which creates a wave of social excitement, leading to all kinds of spillover effects.
That equals ~1 month of green, which creates a wave of social excitement, leading to all kinds of spillover effects.
5/ Using the weekly $BTC chart, we can see the last bull market (2015-2017) had 2 attempted waves in 2015, before a breakout wave in late 2015, followed by 5 big waves in 2016-2017 (log scale chart). 
6/ As with the ocean, after a big wave there is always a period of dissipation, as the water must gather its resources to let another wave roll through.
In crypto, that dissipation is called a pullback.
In crypto, that dissipation is called a pullback.
7/ See below how after large green waves we tend to have at least a few, and sometimes a month+, of red weeks.
While these pullbacks look small here, in reality, they represented 20-40% declines in price.
While these pullbacks look small here, in reality, they represented 20-40% declines in price.
8/ A ~40% pullback would be $BTC falling from $35K to $20K. Some would call this the end of the bull, others would call it a healthy consolidation and base to form.
9/ Looking at $BTC now, it appears we had 2-3 attempted breakout waves in 2019 and 2020, but the clear breakout wave has been late 2020 into 2021 (current).
10/ When things are green for many weeks straight, retail tends to believe that will continue indefinitely.
That's when newcomers are lured in by the promise of riches, but often, when we're at the peak of a wave and preparing to consolidate.
That's when newcomers are lured in by the promise of riches, but often, when we're at the peak of a wave and preparing to consolidate.
11/ It can be tempting to sell the top of an early wave in the set, & whether you do is up to your personal preference and investing/trading style.
As an investor, I know the waves tend to get more intense later in the set, and so I hodl or accumulate through the early waves.
As an investor, I know the waves tend to get more intense later in the set, and so I hodl or accumulate through the early waves.
12/ There are traders much more skilled than myself (I'm a long-term investor, not a trader), who have a more informed view on the specifics and technicals on 1H / 4H / 1D charts.
But my gut tells me to expect a dissipation, and then to keep an eye on the next wave of the set.
But my gut tells me to expect a dissipation, and then to keep an eye on the next wave of the set.
ps - the more negative reactions and disbelief to this thread, the more I'll believe we're in need of a pullback 🙂
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