One positive which seems to be emerging from the US today is that many (by no means all) Republicans and Republican supporters are turning against Trump.
Without the strong support of his party/base, he is immeasurably weakened, and the threat he poses recedes.
BUT... 1/7
What does that mean for those who have consistently opposed Trump? And, to bring the debate to the UK, what might it mean for those who are opposing Johnson and his attacks on the UK's constitution? 2/7
Trump/Johnson supporters do not seem willing or able to listen to the warnings of the opposition. More than that, they seek to present the opposition as the 'true' threat to democracy. 3/7
It is only when conduct crosses a line - crucially, this is a line defined by the 'moderate' supporters of Trump/Johnson - that they are emboldened to speak out. And when they do, things can change very quickly. 4/7
My (rather depressing) sense is that there is very little the opposition can do to influence where these 'moderates' choose to place their line.
In the UK, far too many are blind to the threat posed by Johnson's government. 5/7
If that's right, the opposition might just have to wait for things to get worse, in the (possibly vain) hope that something (presumably, very bad...) will happen to make 'the moderates' alter their stance. 6/7
I hope I'm wrong, and that there are things which opposition parties and groups can do to change minds. One thing is for sure - it is not going to be easy. 7/7
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
First, we are indeed in the realms *not* of the UK having 'membership' of the single market, but instead of it only having an FTA. If there's a deal, the differences will become obvious very soon. 2/7
Second, it is also right to say that the 'threat' from the UK, armed with an FTA, to the integrity of the single market, isn't that great, and also that the level-playing field isn't as level as all that. 3/7
10 mins in front of the news was enough to drive me to intense frustration.
The Tory party 'line to take' today is that the unbridgeable divide is the result of the failure of the EU to recognise that the UK is an independent sovereign state.
It is nonsense. THREAD. 1/11
Brexit involves the UK making a sovereign decision to leave the EU. And, in January 2020 the UK duly left the EU. 2/11
As a member of the EU, the UK was part of the single market. The single market is a complex web of rules and presumptions which seeks to eliminate trade barriers between the EU member states. 3/11
There are a lot of Brexiters in the media this week making points about sovereignty, and about how the EU has not come to terms with the UK's independence.
I have some questions, which it might well be fruitful to ask them. 1/9
1. How do you understand the concept of sovereignty? What are the circumstances in which you might agree to make binding commitments to other independent states or trading blocs? 2/
2. What sort of commitments are you prepared to make in order to get trade deals with other states/blocs? And, to what end (why not trade on Australian-style terms with the wider world)? 3/
One of the root causes of the Govt's Brexit difficulties is that it has overpromised.
We can, it is said, reclaim our sovereignty, with the freedom to make our own rules, and, at the same time, retain many of the advantages of EU membership. 1/14
The reality is that we cannot.
Unless we agree to certain standards and rules (and there is scope to argue about which rules), there will be borders, and checks, and tariffs. 2/
There will always be a relationship between rights (eg tariff free access to EU/UK markets) and responsibilities (eg abiding by level-playing field commitments). 3/
The Govt makes a strong case for continuing with restrictions and for the dangers of 'letting it rip'.
But it does nothing to explain why the particular decisions on education, sports, pubs, and household mixing have been made. 2/4
I would surprised if appeases any of the potential rebels... and think that the pressure to lift restrictions for particular sectors, and regions, will likely increase. 3/4
The Govt, the Opposition, and the real Opposition. Some thoughts on Govt, Labour and the ERG/CRG.
Thread. 1/16
This is a Govt which is interested in the pursuit, and retention, of power (see this blog). It aims for short-term popularity, and is acutely sensitive to the public mood. 2/