DON’T PACIFY A BEAST THAT CANNOT BE PACIFIED. We did so so so many things wrong with #COVID19 response. We were sadly reactive when when should have been proactive. We fiddled while Rome burned. If we don’t stop virus this month—we are screwed. The epidemiology models are dark... 
2) The Denmark 🇩🇰 CDC released this model yesterday. They are now so certain the new virus B117 strain will take over the country (and the world) by Feb and March that they show what currently happens will longer work unless we have epic suppression now!
endcoronavirus.org/papers/covid-s…
endcoronavirus.org/papers/covid-s…
3) here is a more precise explanation of the graph and what it means.
https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1346899021621813249
4) Danish CDC: "it is crucial to turn the epidemic curve around and get the reproduction number significantly below 1 in the coming weeks, so that the infection rates are as low as possible when cluster B.1.1.7 becomes the dominant virus in mid-February."
5) because even if we hold the virus in check with a minimum R=0.96... by the time the new virus variant takes hold, it will be woefully insufficient, since the B117 strain is 40-80% more infectious (multiply current R*1.4 or *1.8). Other experts agree....
6) Notably, the virus is such a beast—suppose we have 1000 cases/day now... with an R=0.86 we could reduce it to 500/day in 2 weeks.
➡️But w/ added contagiousness of B117 variant that has ~60% higher R, in 2 weeks, we’d have 3000 new cases/day instead—3x!
HT @GosiaGasperoPhD
➡️But w/ added contagiousness of B117 variant that has ~60% higher R, in 2 weeks, we’d have 3000 new cases/day instead—3x!
HT @GosiaGasperoPhD
7) “it is our assessment that this variant of concern may over time, replace other circulating lineages, as seen in the 🇬🇧, and increasingly in Denmark”, WHO Europe @hans_kluge said. “W/ increased transmissibility, and similar disease severity, the variant does ... raise alarm."
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