MOST EFFECTIVE INTERVENTIONS: What works best for reducing R(t)?

📌Limiting gatherings <10 people: 42% reduction

📌Closing schools & universities: 38% reduction—which was “remarkably robust“

➡️big paper published in @ScienceMagazine—Legit.

#COVID19 🧵
science.sciencemag.org/content/early/…
2) Notice how big a drop school closing offer in dropping R below 3.3 baseline. And especially when combined with other things, schools can bring it down below R<1. #COVID19

@dgurdasani1 has more children’s data - follow here.
3) here are the specific details of each govt intervention’s R reduction and their 95% CIs from@the study.
4) As Professor Greenhalgh points out, if schools open; they should definitely reconsider the meager 2 meter rule. It doesn’t work for an airborne aerosol virus. Not only masks, but ventilation— and HEPA Filters key if no ventilation.
5) Here is the latest data on attack rates of the new B117 🇬🇧 variant vs common #SARSCoV2 types. And notice the detail about kids aged 0-9.... see details within full thread 🧵 below.
6) However, Denmark CDC is worried that merely crushing the R slightly below 1 is not enough since they anticipate the new B117 variant will require us fast action to crush the R<0.7 in order to contain it by Feb/March.
7) UK govt’s SAGE report of children’s transmission:

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More from @DrEricDing

11 Jan
Let this sink in—

💡Did you know—US intel/DOJ was once able to identify a terrorist from hostage video w/ terrorist’s face shielded behind a ski mask? Only used the eyes + voice pattern.

➡️FBI/police have already arrested 90 coup criminals. More coming.
apnews.com/article/electi… Image
P.s. 6 months ago, that “horn guy” is also a pandemic denier— calling #COVID19 was “bullshit”.
2) Others suggested cell phone location data—while useful for general localization in an area, cell phones aren’t accurate enough to pinpoint if a person was inside the Capitol or was merely on the steps outside. But can maybe corroborate video.
Read 8 tweets
11 Jan
GOOD NEWS—a mutation seen in a few #SARSCoV2 variants doesn’t seem to harm the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, finding “no reduction in neutralization activity against virus”.

HOWEVER—did not yet test for worrisome E484K mutation, which many experts say might.🧵
statnews.com/2021/01/08/pfi…
2) A colleague of mine, @AliNouriPhD, wrote a post on a recent reinfection case involving the E484K mutation. We know it can “escape” many current neutralizing antibodies.
3) What do we mean by “escape neutralizing antibodies”? It means antibodies known to bind the common type of the #SARSCoV2 virus no longer bind to the mutated version. And that is what we are noticing with the E484K mutation that’s in receptor binding domain. (@jbloom_lab credit) Image
Read 4 tweets
10 Jan
HORRENDOUS—Physician for US Congress sends a warning that the protective safe room for Members of Congress where tons of people were huddle together—had someone w/ #COVID19, and thus everyone possibly exposed. Everyone asked to get PCR test.

We knew this could happen. Horrible. Image
2) We knew something like this could happen. That’s why @LisaBRochester tried to hand out masks to everyone in the safe room.
3) I warned this entire Jan 6th insurrection day could be worse than Sturgis in terms of superspreading.
Read 4 tweets
10 Jan
This speech will go down as one of the greatest speeches. @Schwarzenegger is right—Jan 6th 2021 was our Kristallnacht. Austria 🇦🇹 tried to resist Hilter takeover for years but succumbed because Hitler’s lies went unchallenged. We must #impeach now.
2) My wife @andreafeigl1’s 🇦🇹 great grandfather secretly fought Hilter’s Nazi regime & smuggled many Jews to safety as an aircraft engineer. He was thrown into a concentration camp.

She knows a few things about Nazi history—and today was downright fascist all the way. Read 👇
3) fun fact, my wife was born in same Austrian 🇦🇹 city as @Schwarzenegger.

Fun fact 2: she doesn’t talk like Arnold.
Read 4 tweets
10 Jan
FOLKS—if you think #COVID19 cases is really bad in the US, it is even more epically surging in the UK 🇬🇧 & Ireland 🇮🇪. I made a short video... and highlighted the simultaneous rise in the more contagious b117 variant. Denmark CDC thinks B117 will become dominant strain by Feb. 🧵
2) the new variant B117 is now 25% of all cases in Ireland last week. Up form 9% 2 weeks before that.
3) This needs to be a lesson for all of us. The Danish CDC is extremely concerned and pessimistic.
Read 10 tweets
10 Jan
Ireland 🇮🇪 & N. Ireland are in a serious #COVID19 crisis. Cases surging past 🇬🇧.

➡️Ireland also has increased presence of the B117 variant—now found in **25%** of cases that underwent further testing in week to Jan. 3, up from just 9% two weeks earlier.
reuters.com/article/us-hea… Image
2) This dooms day B117 variant taking over scenario with sharp vertical increase is exactly the most feared scenario Denmark CDC — Denmark 🇩🇰 is also seeing sharp rise. And they fear they will soon lose control. See thread 🧵
3) To be clear—even if we hold the virus in check with a minimum R=0.96... by the time the new virus variant takes hold, it will be woefully insufficient, since the B117 strain is 40-80% more infectious (multiply current R*1.4 or *1.8). Other experts agree....
Read 7 tweets

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