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7 Jan, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Good news.

Biden to choose Brett McGurk for top job in the US National Security Council (NSC), managing the Middle East and North Africa.

McGurk led the Global Coalition to Defeat the Islamic State. He urged Obama to bomb ISIS before it cld take Mosul.

npasyria.com/en/52513/
@brett_mcgurk urged Obama to stop ISIS's advance in vain. The Obama WH insisted on using the ISIS advance on Baghdad as leverage to get PM Maliki out of office & al-Abadi in. This political objective was bought at the price of the destruction of Mosul & many Iraqi Sunni cities.
The US pursued the same bad policy in Syria. It calculated that the Islamic State’s expansion in the region would force the Syrian president to negotiating with Washington, according to private comments made by Kerry.
washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jan/…
Here is the Frontline documentary in which McGurk says that he thought that those people in the Obama administration who thought that "a military response had to wait for a political solution were out of their minds." See from minute 12. pbs.org/wgbh/frontline…
Think how much suffering could have been avoided, had the US acted against ISIS in the early part of 2014. Millions of refugees and thousands of deaths could have been avoided. Ramadi, Mosul, Raqqa and Kobani might not lie in ruins & their people not languish in refugee camps.

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More from @joshua_landis

Joshua Landis Profile picture
30 Dec 20
Former Iraqi PM Al-Maliki: We Would Have Sent The Iraqi Army To Fight In Syria If It Were Needed To Prevent The Fall Of The Al-Assad Regime

If Assad were to fall, an invasion by Al-Nusra, Al-Qaeda & others into Iraq, Lebanon, & Jordan would have ensued ow.ly/EFLg30rqoM9
The interesting part of Maliki's assertion is not whether Iraq had the capability to send forces to Syria in 2014, but that ISIS's success changed the region. The collapse of the US-assembled, Iraqi army underlined the importance of religion in mobilizing military force.
The collapse of national solidarity sparked sectarian & ethnic mobilization across the region. Shi'a forces mobilized in face of Sunni successes. Sistani called for the Hasd. Hizb doubled down. US sided w Hasd & pivoted to the Kurds in Syria, dropping the Sunni Arab militias.
Read 4 tweets
Joshua Landis Profile picture
18 Sep 20
Sanctions on Syria must be "restructured to mitigate their impact on the population & make them more effective against the regime"

By Zaki Mehchy of Chattam House

Many good suggestions included.

Thread =>
arab-reform.net/publication/pu… @ArabReform_ARI
"Indicators show sanctions are hitting ordinary Syrians the hardest"

What can be done?

"Western countries should agree on a set of detailed objectives within the agreed framework of 2254 to resolve the conflict and tie sanctions to measurable and attainable goals. [such as =>
To tie sanctions to specific improvements on human rights, such as releasing detainees, setting up independent visits to detention facilities, and stopping arbitrary detentions by security agencies to give civil society initiatives an appropriate and safe working environment.
Read 5 tweets
Joshua Landis Profile picture
15 Sep 20
Report: Regional Consequences of the Syria War - by @WorldBank

(GDP) growth was reduced by 1.2% yearly in Iraq, 1.6% in Jordan, & 1.7% in Lebanon solely b/c of conflict in Syria

Cumulatively, this adds up to 11.3% off the GDPs across the 3 countries.

worldbank.org/en/region/mena…
The marginal effect of the trade shock on GDP reached –3.1% points in Jordan and –2.9% points in Lebanon. In comparison, the demographic shock (refugee arrivals) boosted GDP by 0.9% points in both countries by increasing aggregate demand and labor supply.
Poverty rates increased by 4% in Jordan, 7.1% in Lebanon &, with internal displacement, 6.0% points in Iraq.

A strong economic recovery in Syria and an associated positive fallout for neighboring states are unlikely.
Read 5 tweets
Joshua Landis Profile picture
30 Aug 20
The World Is Becoming More Equal

U.S. median income in 2013 was a mere 4 % higher than in 2008; meanwhile, Chinese & Vietnamese median incomes increased more than 100%, while Thailand’s median income increased by 85% & India’s by 60%.

By @BrankoMilan

foreignaffairs.com/articles/world…
China has played an enormous role in lowering global inequality. The economic growth of its 1.4 billion people has reshaped wealth around the world. But China has become so wealthy that its continued growth no longer plays such an important role in lowering global inequality. Image
India, with a population that is still relatively poor, now plays an important role in making the world more equal. In the last 20 years, China and India have driven the reduction in global inequality. From now on, only Indian growth will perform that same function.
Read 7 tweets
Joshua Landis Profile picture
13 Aug 20
1. Are the U.S. and France headed for conflict over policy in the Mediterranean & Middle East?

Read the thread:
2. France has historically claimed primacy in the Mediteranean region. This has been true since Napoleon & grew stronger as France acquired colonies in North Africa and the Levant.

Turkey is now challenging France for primacy in the East Med.
3. The top prize for France since the Arab Spring uprisings has been Libya.

Italy had major Libyan oil deals under Qaddafi. To wrest control of Libya, France sided w Gen Haftar against the UN recognized governing coalition in Tripoli (GNC), which rules a small section of Libya.
Read 17 tweets
Joshua Landis Profile picture
12 Aug 20
Sanctions to Fix Lebanon

The Trump administration is preparing anticorruption sanctions against Hezbollah’s allies in Lebanon, as it seeks to weaken the group in the aftermath of the Beirut explosion.

wsj.com/articles/u-s-p… via @WSJ
"U.S. officials see an opportunity to drive a wedge b/n Hezbollah & its allies as part of a broader effort to contain the Shiite force backed by Tehran. Hezbollah has been part of Lebanese coalition governments for more than a decade & is the region’s most potent threat to Israel
U.S. officials said that by sanctioning carefully selected people, they aim to shape the new government with two prime goals: ensuring that Hezbollah doesn’t retain its hold on government decisions & compelling Lebanon’s political class to target endemic corruption.
Read 4 tweets

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