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Philipp Heimberger Profile picture
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8 Jan, 9 tweets, 4 min read
EU-Wiederaufbaufonds wird dazu beitragen, dass EU-Länder nach Corona nicht weiter auseinanderdriften. €750 Milliarden durch EU-Anleihen; damit wird EU zu wichtigem Akteur auf den Anleihemärkten; ein Zukunftsmodell! Meine Kolumne @handelsblatt: Thread/1

handelsblatt.com/meinung/kolumn… Image
In den letzten Monaten von 2020 begab die EU ihre ersten COVID-bezogenen Anleihen für das SURE-Programm (Unterstützung von Kurzarbeitsprogrammen in Mitgliedstaaten) - bei negativer Verzinsung und enormer Nachfrage nach den EU-Anleihen. /2

ec.europa.eu/commission/pre… Image
Das war erst der Auftakt: Zur Finanzierung wird EU-Kommission im Namen der EU bis zu €750 Milliarden auf den Finanzmärkten aufnehmen; €390 Milliarden Zuschüsse für Mitgliedstaaten, die nicht zurückgezahlt werden müssen; €360 Milliarden über Kredite. /3

ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/… Image
Die massive Nachfrage nach den ersten COVID-bezogenen EU-Anleihen zeigt: InvestorInnen suchen nach „sicheren Häfen“. Mit der EU als Schuldnerin sind sie bereit, negative Zinsen in Kauf zu nehmen. /4
Dies demonstriert das immense Potenzial von Anleihen, welche die EU im Namen aller Mitgliedstaaten begibt. Das sollte auch für zukünftige EU-Investitionsprogramme zur Adressierung von Zukunftsherausforderungen wie Klimawandel und Digitalisierung genützt werden. /5
Wie viel Geld die EU für das Aufbauinstrument an den Finanzmärkten exakt aufnehmen wird, bleibt offen: Es ist nicht klar, ob alle Länder vollständig die verfügbaren „Next Generation EU“-Kredite, die sie zurückzahlen müssen, nützen werden. /6
Regierungen wie jene in Madrid und Rom liebäugeln damit, die an die Verwendung der EU-Kredite geknüpften Bedingungen zu vermeiden. Das liegt an den negativen Erfahrungen des Südens mit den Sparbedingungen der Troika aus Zeiten der Eurokrise. /7

english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2… Image
In der EZB gab es am Ende des vergangenen Jahres Diskussionen, ob die Anleihenkäufe der Zentralbank für jene Länder reduziert werden sollten, welche die verfügbaren EU-Kredite aus „Next Generation EU“ nicht ausschöpfen. /8

nasdaq.com/articles/ecb-n… Image
Das wäre jedoch ein gefährliches Spiel, das die EZB unterlassen sollte: Es könnte zu Spekulation und Turbulenzen an den Finanzmärkten führen, die Europa jetzt gar nicht brauchen kann. /end

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More from @heimbergecon

Philipp Heimberger Profile picture
10 Jan
It’s totally wrong to draw the lesson from history that you have to push for “drastic anti-inflation“ policy to counteract a rise of the Nazis. Nazi rise in Germany in early 1930s happened when there was DEFLATION, worsened by fiscal austerity. Thread /1

In 1928, the Nazis had 2.6% of the votes in Germany; in 1932, they had 37.4%. Most people – across the political spectrum – don’t know that Nazi rise happened in an environment of mass unemployment and DEFLATION. /2

hertie-school.org/fileadmin/user… Image
Hyperinflation in Germany stopped in 1923 after the currency reform. And the real problem as the Nazis gained strength was the severe recession with deflationary pressures. Brüning’s emergency decrees introduced tax hikes and spending cuts, with devastating economic effects. /3 Image
Read 6 tweets
Philipp Heimberger Profile picture
9 Jan
Austria has a plagiarism scandal of a new dimension. The PhD thesis of Labour Minister Christine Aschbacher (from the conservative party of Chancellor Kurz) opens unbelievable "abysses of gibberish, nonsense and plagiarism".

plagiatsgutachten.com/blog/dissertat… Image
Labour Minister Aschbacher's Master's thesis was also riddled with plagiarism. And she defended her PhD thesis in the middle of the pandemic, when she should have focused all her efforts on coming up with the best possible policy response to the crisis.

derstandard.at/story/20001231…
Austrian Labour Minister Christina Aschbacher just resigned due to accusations of plagiarism. But she is now portraying herself as the victim of a campaign. Given the evidence shown by plagiarism hunter Stefan Weber, her defence is not very convincing:

derstandard.at/story/20001231… Image
Read 4 tweets
Philipp Heimberger Profile picture
23 Dec 20
HW Sinn hat es wieder getan: In seiner "Weihnachtsvorlesung" warnt er vor Hyperinflation. Er zieht direkte Linie von Hyperinflation 1923 zu Aufstieg der Nazis, erwähnt nicht, dass Nazi-Aufstieg Deflation vorausging, verstärkt durch Sparpolitik. Thread /1

Sinn hat das gleiche schon in einem langen NZZ-Interview gemacht. Ich habe das in einem Kommentar kritisiert, zumal HWS nicht nur die Geschichte verzerrt darstellt, sondern daraus auch noch verfehlte wirtschaftspolitische Schlussfolgerungen ableitet. /2

In seiner Replik hatte Sinn behauptet, er sehe die Rolle der Brüning'schen Sparpolitik ähnlich wie ich, aber könne in einem Interview eben nicht alles erwähnen. In 73 Minuten "Weihnachtsvorlesung" hat er Deflation und Sparpolitik wieder nicht erwähnt. /3

handelsblatt.com/meinung/kolumn…
Read 9 tweets
Philipp Heimberger Profile picture
22 Dec 20
One of Germany’s most prominent economists, Hans-Werner Sinn, warns of hyperinflation; he links it directly to Hitler's rise to power. A distortion of history: the rise of the Nazis was preceded by deflation, exacerbated by fiscal austerity. Thread /1

braveneweurope.com/philipp-heimbe… Image
Sinn says hyperinflation after WW1 impoverished the German middle class in the Weimar Republic: "Ten years later they elected Adolf Hitler as Reich Chancellor." Policy recommendation today against hyperinflation: "tighter budget constraints" /2

nzz.ch/finanzen/hans-… Image
Sinn thus feeds a widespread misinterpretation. Mass poverty when the Nazis came to power in 1933 was not the result of hyperinflation, which at that time was ten years in the past; it was primarily a consequence of mass unemployment due to the recession in the early 1930s. /3
Read 19 tweets
Philipp Heimberger Profile picture
30 Nov 20
Does employment protection affect unemployment? My meta-analysis on this question is now published in "Oxford Economic Papers". The average (precision-weighted) effect is zero, but data and specification choices matter for reported effects. A thread: /1

academic.oup.com/oep/advance-ar…
In theory, the effect of employment protection on unemployment is ambiguous. Reported empirical findings are mixed. Qualitative surveys are potentially misleading, but using meta-analysis can help. /2
I construct a novel data set consisting of 881 observations on the effect of employment protection (EPL) on unemployment from 75 studies. Once we correct for (mild) publication selection bias, the average effect cannot be distinguished from zero. /3
Read 6 tweets
Philipp Heimberger Profile picture
27 Nov 20
The Economist argues: the fiscal stance should depend on the unemployment rate: "pledge not to tighten fiscal policy actively until the economy has crossed a defined threshold". Implementing this in the EU would be revolutionary. A thread: /1

economist.com/leaders/2020/1…
Interestingly, the origins of cycle-sensitive budgeting lie in a Keynesian approach to fiscal policy. In its original sense, cycle-sensitive budgeting was tailored to contribute to the engineering of full employment /2

ineteconomics.org/research/resea…
The concept was first proposed by Gunnar Myrdal, who wanted to allow the Swedish government to balance the budget over the entire business cycle, which was supposed to promote a fiscal policy capable of smoothening cyclical swings in the economy /3
Read 11 tweets

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