So ...
Gold and metals getting trashed
the dollar incredibly bottomed on the elections ... should have gone down, but didn't. Rates behaved as expected, but the dollar turned.
Gold and metals getting trashed
the dollar incredibly bottomed on the elections ... should have gone down, but didn't. Rates behaved as expected, but the dollar turned.
The hindsight rationale for the change is higher growth => curve steepening AND higher real rates ... this was always a risk to the negative rates thesis, the flipside, the what happens if.
Why the market changed its tune regarding the dollar on elections, while other trends continued its prior path? (recall the Blue Sweep trade had been in play since November)
That's the question nobody has an answer to.
That's the question nobody has an answer to.
The real question is, is it a fad or not. That's what matters.
IMO it is, as the Fed will cap rates while inflation goes up.
I'm open to be wrong.
IMO it is, as the Fed will cap rates while inflation goes up.
I'm open to be wrong.
If this dollar trend were to continue for much longer it will likely take its toll on bitcoin. Keeping this very present on my radar.
Also had a horrible NFP print today, -140K, which markets largely ignored. Very unusual.
Gold liking this. Very important. Talks of early taper had supposedly been another variable driving the USD in the last few days.
https://twitter.com/breakingmkts/status/1347578419492622338
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