Thread by @Gray_Mackenzie

One of the big political debates of the day has been if we're going to 'run out' of vaccines in the coming weeks, as Premier Ford says Ontario is going to next week.

I crunched the vaccine numbers, and unlike Grade 10 math class, I'm going to show my work #cdnpoli

Two cavities. I did this on a national level because I can't predict how much each province will get but we do know the delivery schedule to Canada.

I also averaged the March Pfizer doses cause Fortin wasn’t sure of the weekly schedule yet but said we’d get to 4 M by March 31

Scenario 1 - The provinces do not increase their distribution capacity at all and give vaccines out at the 5 day rolling average (23,891 per day). If this happens, we still have way more vaccine supply than capacity. Very unlikely this scenario happens #cdnpoli

Scenario 2 - The provinces distribute vaccines at the rate they did yesterday, which was they highest level yet (38,318 per day). Again, there would be ample supply from the feds to meet the provinces ability to get the vaccines out the door #cdnpoli

Scenario 3 - The provinces increase distribution from their highest level (38,318 per day) by 10% each week until the end of March. In this scenario, supply would be meet capacity right at the end of March, just in time for more vaccines to arrive #cdnpoli

Scenario 4 - The provinces increase distribution from their highest level (38,318 per day) by 15% each week until the end of March. In this scenario, capacity would outstrip supply starting the week of Feb 15 and continue until a much larger vaccine shipment arrives #cdnpoli

Considering what Maj.-Gen. Fortin said earlier today I expect things will be a lot closer to scenario 3 or 4 compared to scenario 1 or 2.

https://twitter.com/Gray_Mackenzie/status/1347605397050425344

So, at a national level, it doesn't look like we are going to run out this week or next at current rates. If the provinces are really able to ramp up, we could be running below capacity by the middle of Feb, unless the feds get more vaccines #cdnpoli

This also doesn't preclude from specific places (EX: UHN or the Ottawa Hospital) from running out. The provinces still need to get the vaccines to the places that can quickly roll them out. As we all know, vaccines are useless in the freezer #cdnpoli

Final point, everyone wants more vaccines yesterday, but I don't think we should view 'running out' as a bad. Next week, we are scheduled to get 379K vaccines. If the provinces can use them all in 3 days that's a good thing, even if we don't vaccinate for a couple days after

Also, I failed Grade 10 math and got a 52 in Grade 11 math, so please excuse any errors. I am a journalist for a reason.

My Czech math teacher Ms. Novotny would be very surprised to see me publicly displaying my work...