With #Bitcoin mooning, will it pull back? I don't often look at TA but here are some indicators:
1️⃣ Stock-to-Flow🟢Cheap
2️⃣ Pi Cycle🔴Expensive
3️⃣ 2-Year Moving Average🟢
4️⃣ Puell Multiple🟢
5️⃣ Golden Ratio Multiplier🔴
6️⃣ BTC Log Growth🟢
h/t @PositiveCrypto
CHARTS below👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻
@100trillionUSD 1️⃣ Stock-to-Flow🟢Cheap / Neutral🟢
Ratio of bitcoin in circulation relative to the amount of bitcoin annually mined
2️⃣ Pi Cycle🔴Expensive🔴
Daily Moving Average and Moving Average Multiples to pick market cycle highs to within 3 days.
3️⃣ 2-Year Moving Average🟢Cheap / Neutral🟢
Long-term investors' tool to identify under/oversold price periods
4️⃣ Puell Multiple🟢Cheap / Neutral🟢
Relationship between daily bitcoin issuance and price.
5️⃣ Golden Ratio Multiplier🔴Expensive🔴
Uses Bitcoin's growth adoption curve and market cycles to identify both intracycle and full-cycle price highs.
@cz_binance grew @binance into the largest exchange in the world within 6 months. Furthermore, $BNB pioneered the discount token model. Based on Exchange Token comparables, we value $BNB at $43.5.
Valuation Methods: We take the weighted probability of the below metrics --
✅ Burn Yield
✅ Price / Sales
✅ Price / Earnings (below)
✅ Regulatory Risk
✅ Transactions per day
(2/7)
Burn Yield: Most popular of the metrics.
Utility tokens don’t allow ownership stakes but buybacks could be seen as a form of “dividend-in-kind”. Instead of issuing additional shares, we get a burn of tokens.
(3/7)
Remember STOs? @dbsbank the largest bank in Southeast Asia (650 million people) accidentally announced their Digital Exchange and STO platform. STOs will be able to attract even more capital than ICOs. What’s the real addressable market size for STOs for #DBS?
(1/5)
Debt: A regional liquidity crunch is key
❎~95% of companies don't have access to capital markets
❎ Banks are taking huge spreads so cost of debt is unaffordable (if you can get debt at all)
The Philippines and Indonesia has a debt shortfall of $2.4 tn alone.
(2/5)
Equity: the @SGX saw more delistings than listings this year. The IPO market simply may no longer be suitable for most companies. Assuming Southeast Asia has the same funding requirements as India (even lower GDP p.c.) then the STO Equity market could be >$500bn
(3/5)
Instituional adoption of #bitcoin is just beginning. Why is >80,000 $BTC in corporate balance sheets? 1. Outperforming indices by 15x 2. Highest Sharpe ratio, highest risk-adjusted returns 3. Lowest correlations to other assets 4. High volumes 5. Regulatory clarity
Thread👇🏼
#Bitcoin has outperformed investors and fund benchmarks by 1500%. Almost embarrasing not having an allocation
(2/6)
$BTC has the Highest Sharpe Ratio of assets. That means it has the highest risk-adjusted returns. Even higher than the biggest hedge fund in the world (see our latest research) messari.io/article/the-po…
(3/6)