Thread by @asiahodl

@cz_binance grew @binance into the largest exchange in the world within 6 months. Furthermore, $BNB pioneered the discount token model. Based on Exchange Token comparables, we value $BNB at $43.5.

Edit the model to your own assumptions
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messari.io/article/valuat…

Valuation Methods: We take the weighted probability of the below metrics --
✅ Burn Yield
✅ Price / Sales
✅ Price / Earnings (below)
✅ Regulatory Risk
✅ Transactions per day
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Burn Yield: Most popular of the metrics.
Utility tokens don’t allow ownership stakes but buybacks could be seen as a form of “dividend-in-kind”. Instead of issuing additional shares, we get a burn of tokens.
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Transactions per Day: Binance Smart Chain data started on 29-Aug-20, #BSC maintained an average of 14.9% of all transactions on #Ethereum. All else equal, this calls for an uplift in BNB’s price between +130% to +231%.
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messari.io/article/valuat…

What are the unknowns? Risk to token holders include the lack of transparency in the burn mechanism (linked to volumes). We estimate 4Q'20E burn based on the QoQ and YoY growth.
@binance could burn anywhere between $104.5 to $234.5m worth of BNB. That’s a 224% spread.
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What can $BNB do for higher valuations? It's already top of the list in creating importance for $BNB with 60% market share
✅ More burn transparency
✅ Remove the cap of 50% burn, or shift to a fee distribution model
✅ Burn more often
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We expect @cz_binance to keep evolving $BNB. The bull thesis for $BNB requires it to become the widespread “convenience money” for investors who use it enough for fee discounts, gas money or staking to require a stash.
messari.io/article/valuat…