Thread by @apsmunro

I think people find it hard to understand the deal with kids reduced susceptibility to #COVID19 and what it means for schools etc

I thought I’d share a little analogy which helps me conceptualise it

Let’s imagine #COVID19 is rain... 🌧

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Everyone wants to stop getting wet

Adults are just dressed normally 👦

Teens have a little hat on 🧢

Younger kids have got an umbrella ☂

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When there is very little rain, you won’t notice much difference between how wet everyone is

When it starts raining a bit, you’ll notice the younger kids are less wet than adults

The teens may be just as wet as they spend more time out in the rain

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But what happens when there’s a monsoon?

Well a rain hat and coat aren’t going to cut it

Everyone gets soaking wet

And the problem is once you’re wet, you start making other people wet too

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What we’ve seen more recently in England is 2 things:

1. Very high infection prevalence - Monsoon rain

After this happened, we shut the adults indoors and left the kids out in the rain (in school)

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2. A more infectious virus variant - this is like stripping off a layer of protection for everyone (including kids)

When it rains, more people are now getting wet than before

It will be harder to leave kids (and everyone else) out in the rain without them getting wet now

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Fortunately kids and teens still don’t suffer much when wet

But the best way to keep them dry is to stop it raining

That’s what we need to do over the next few weeks to get them back to school

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We can add extra measures to school (masks, more distancing, better ventilation etc), but ultimately these are like putting on a hat/raincoat etc

They are useful when it’s not raining much

They won’t hold back a flood

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