Thread by @farzamehsani

1/ Been getting many calls about #Bitcoin and whether now is a good time to buy. I'm not a financial advisor and these are my personal thoughts not financial advice. Do your own research before deciding what to do.

2/ There isn't a one size fits all answer here. It depends on
A) Your time horizon
B) Your ability to stomach volatility
C) Your discretionary income

3/ In the long run I think #Bitcoin is still cheap. At R650k ($41k) I still think over the next few years it could more than 10x from here. At a $750bn market cap it's still 1/15th the value of #gold and I think it will far surpass the value of gold in the long run.

4/ I still stand by the below thought process and think #BTC will outlast many fiat currencies and by definition will then be valued at an exchange rate of #infinity.

https://twitter.com/farzamehsani/status/905885543896113152?s=19

5/ Timing is everything though. After the Dec 2017 peak of ~$20k, #BTC crashed 85% to just over $3k a year later. Many sold and crystalized a huge loss. But if you didn't sell and held til now 👇

https://twitter.com/farzamehsani/status/1347443757092888577?s=19

6/ Point is that if you buy now the price may 📉. However there is also a very good chance that #BTC goes 📈. In 2017 the #BTC price 20x'd so even after the 85% decline post the Dec 2017 peak, if you bought at the start of 2017 you would have still been up >200% at the trough.

7/ So if you are not prepared for 📉 please don't count on 📈. You'll learn a lot about yourself through the ups and the downs. But it's important that you remain wise.

8/ It's unwise to buy #Bitcoin with money needed for necessary expenses such as food, housing, school fees, healthcare and even the holiday you may be saving for in a few months. So start with money you can afford to lose and that you don't plan on pulling out for several years.

9/ Don't just buy with the hope of getting rich. You may feel very poor in the short term if you're not prepared for the volatility. And be careful of using leverage - while this enhances any gains it magnifies your losses too.

10/ The best thing you can do is educate yourself. Not just about #Bitcoin. More importantly about the frailties of our current financial system. E.g. ask what it means that 1/4 of all USD came into existence this past year 👇

11/ Read about money (authors like @nfergus @JamesGRickards @SteveForbesCEO). Read about #BTC (authors like @aantonop @saifedean @cburniske). Listen to podcasts (by @laurashin @APompliano @PeterMcCormack @stephanlivera). Engage on Twitter (w/ @AriDavidPaul @RaoulGMI @nic__carter)

12/ Be wary of what you read/hear too - I don't agree with everything the above people say or stand for (there is a lot to learn even from people you disagree with). Beware of short articles by journalists (many have to get stories out but don't understand #BTC or #crypto)

13/ Just question all you've been taught. I've realized many young people understand this stuff better than nobel laureates, world-renowned economists, profs and investors because they aren't stuck in the current paradigm. And paradigms shift. That's what's happening now.