I really shouldn't be at this point in history but even I was surprised at the criticism I've seen of the State Departments announcement on Taiwan. So let's unpack it a little. Let's start with a simple question: is it good policy and advance objectives? I don't think there 1/n
is any objective doubt it is both good policy and advances key diplomatic, security, and economic objectives. Taiwan has wanted to upgrade its relationship with the US for a long time. The US has held back only out of concern for hurting Chinese people's feelings. 2/n
Given the ongoing security escalation of the PLA and other Chinese institutions, it provides good additional avenues to meet with US and Taiwanese officials. It demonstrates US commitment to the region and a key ally. I really can't think of any good reason this is bad 3/n
Policy for the US or Taiwan. Let me emphasize this does not mean without risks or other caveats but this is objectively good policy and definitely not bad policy. Second, pretty much the entirety of criticism I've seen can be summed up as "stupid Trump. Stupid Pompeo." 4/n
Let's assume they are both scum of the earth. They are doing this wanting a board seat on TSMC. It's still good policy. The Tsai administration is very happy. Taiwan has been pushing for this type of relationship upgrade for a long long time. Even if Pompeo and Trump are 5/n
Doing this for all the wrong reasons, that doesn't make the policy any worse and it is strongly supported by Taiwan as a long term objective. Third, how would this have looked if the other side (the incoming Biden administration) did the EXACT same thing February 1? 6/n
It would unquestionably be met with adulation that this shows Biden is committed to allies, is the real hawk on China, and diplomatically working to extend American influence. We need to always consider the optics of a move if the other guy did it. In this case, 7/n
It would overwhelmingly be welcomed as a positive step. If a policy move performed by the other guy would be welcomed as positive, then even if we someone we don't like does the act, we should still welcome the policy shift. What amazes me is that some of the most strident 8/n
pro-Taiwanese voices are criticizing this. How is this bad for Taiwan? You think daily PLA sightseeing flights are positive? You think the US not taking Taiwan seriously is good? How is this a bad thing for Taiwan. If you care about Taiwan, you should want the US 9/n
Very committed to Taipei so there isn't a signaling problem letting Beijing think the US isn't committed. Get over your partisan hatred. This is everything you say Biden policy will be. Let's chalk this up as a win. Get ready to push for more with the 1600 occupant. Done.

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More from @BaldingsWorld

11 Jan
A short thread on free speech. 1. I make no apologies for being a near free speech absolutist. To me, there is almost never any valid reason for restricting speech definitely not the reasons that are commonly used. Just in case you were wondering, and feel free to look, 1/n
I have never called for or pushed for the censoring, deplatforming, etc of anyone or institution this includes the CCP and all their minions. I do not believe in that. This is not partisan or group, I hold that constant for all groups 2/n
2. Being a free speech absolutist means that you do not approve of the speech content but that people should have the ability to say it. I'm not a racist. Communist. Facist or whatever other -ist you may want to claim but I believe people should be able to say it 3/n
Read 9 tweets
31 Dec 20
Since I have received many questions and crazy accusations, on this last day of 2020 let me give you a random collection of thoughts to close out this year. 1/n
1. I miss Asia. It's awesome. Most countries have a sense that things are getting better and that opportunities exist. From people starting businesses to sending their kids to better schools, there is a vibrancy and optimism that is infectious 2/n
2. Americans are a whiny narcistic self absorbed lot that rather then get down to a task and make things happen are content to complain ad nauseum. The world don't owe you $#!+. Get down to it and get on with it 3/n
Read 14 tweets
29 Dec 20
When you're analyzing economics or foreign policy you start from the place of it had better damn well be right or at least wrong for the right reasons and not some partisan or biased hackery. The EU deal with China is exposing the charlatanry of the Acela Corridor chattering 1/n
Because it was absolutely never based in getting it right or based upon what are the facts saying, it was based in nothing more than political reactionism. The so called think tank talent had no insight into what politics or policies these countries faced which hinder 2/n
Cooperation but rather is board game view of the world and some political talking points. I have written often about how everyone is for allies but there is not understanding of what motivates or interests those allies have. I'm all for international institutions 3/n
Read 5 tweets
28 Dec 20
Very fair and common question but to be honest I don't like this question because it has almost no relation to policy/actual action and everything to do with the PR spokesperson. We should never equate policy with politics. Reframe this question about policy 1/n
If we focus on the policy actions, I think the US has every reason to be very proud of its actions over the last four years. Let me emphasize this does not mean a full throated endorsement, I does not mean I would have done everything the exact same way, however, the policy 2/n
within foreign policy I think is a strong record that has really been at the forefront of changing the discussion specifically about China but also expanding on previous changes. Let's go over a couple. First, USG has challenged China directly across a range of policy 3/n
Read 12 tweets
18 Dec 20
I forget who said it but one of the truisms of the Trump era was that Trump enemies always sunk to his level and lower. In foreign policy it seems like most everyone automatically lost 20 IQ points because the thinking is so poorly though through. Let's take one example 1/n
The buzz word dominating Acela Corridor think tanks and media (neither the brightest lights in the house) is "allies" to challenge China. As an amorphous vacuous meaningless cliche it's wonderful. However, it stems not from an realistic appraisal of the foreign policy 2/n
Landscape but from a critique of Trump (leave aside the accuracy for now) and a desire for boring peace, love, and kumbaya. The reality is that for numerous reasons, all these supposed "allies" are not nearly the "allies" our media and think tank overlords suppose 3/n
Read 11 tweets
16 Dec 20
There is astounding poverty of foreign policy thinking. It is both Trump obsessed and gratuitously narcissistic in US political self absorption. Virtually any geopolitical problem you cite will NOT be fixed by changing the President. Let's go down a quick list of hits: 1/n
South Korea is governed by a kumbaya singing Pyongyang appeaser who wants the US to put personnel at risk giving it a blank check while he actively tries to give goodies to a totalitarian mad man. That's not changing with a new President 2/n
China is governed by an unabashed totalitarian wannabe that will not negotiate on anything but how low you will bow to recognize their supremacy. That's not changing with a new president 3/n
Read 9 tweets

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