One concept that doesn’t seem to have fully caught on in dialogue— we don’t need to get any single intervention to work 100% effectively, nor is that an achievable goal.
Even if we got every layer of prevention to work 25% better, could still get R<1 and keep it there
2/ What won’t work is doing a whole bunch of different things half-ass w/ none of them really working.
3/ Why I’m bringing this up: as people criticize idea of getting the administration to ship us better masks (ex “not everyone wears masks”)— we don’t need *everyone* to wear masks to stop the epidemic. We do need more people to have access to better PPE along w/ everything else
4/ If every single person wore a hi-fi mask every day during every single encounter (100% efficacy), epidemic would be over *in weeks*.
That’s not going to happen. But using the fact that this won’t happen as a reason to not pursue a better masks strategy is silly.
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1//
Let's break down the new US federal policy requiring a negative #covid19 test before boarding announced today because it covers a few important concepts
It requires that people flying into the US have a negative test within 3 days of flying
3/ This highlights the "one test is one test" point: all that test is saying is that you are negative when you got it
That is not a reason to not test-- but it is a reason to want a neg result as close to whatever event it is (flight or otherwise) that you can #covid19
THREAD
1// Have been saying this for months— and have actually have been doing this for the entire year any time I went back to LA to see family, even with a negative test.
High risk workers should mask at home if they have regular exposure. Every layer matters. #covid19
2// Increasingly colleagues of mine are incidentally testing positive without known exposure- takes 1-2 days to get PCR result back; end up exposing whole family in that time.
Nothing inherently safe about the home unfortunately.
3// In fact, may end up being most dangerous given less likely to mask here; very close prolonged exposure; crowding; ventilation variable
Now I’m going to accept that pragmatically speaking, most people are not going to mask at home BUT here are some personal recommendations...
1/ Our new piece in @statnews — along with vaccine rollout, the US needs a high filtration mask initiative
Every American should have access to high filtration masks for use any time they have to be outside their home in indoor spaces #covid19
___ statnews.com/2021/01/07/nat…
2/ As the pandemic surges, most of the cases I am now seeing in the hospital do not know where or how they were infected
A number of them report wearing cloth masks regularly, & this is much better than no mask
1/ Important point from @K_G_Andersen — variant #B117 in San Diego; may not change what we need to do— but is an urgent reminder that we are not even doing what we need to do well enough as it is.
1/
Outbreak of #covid19 on an 18 hour flight in September flying from Dubai to New Zealand now officially published
7 ultimately infected; 4 likely in flight, sitting within 4 rows of one another, 2 of them while reportedly wearing masks
2/ 5 out of the 7 had been tested **before the flight** and tested negative
2 didn’t report getting tested before the flight but are *not* thought to be the index cases (those who started the outbreak)
BUT Index case was tested **5 days** before the flight!
3/ I circled the days that index case *should have been tested* — 24-48 hours before flight, when they had likely started incubating the virus; when detection could have happened; when the outbreak could have been prevented