Though the UK and the EU have agreed a Trade and Co-operation Agreement, massive uncertainties still swirl around the future of their relationship. Here are 5, in a short thread. @CER_London 1/6
The TCA says virtually nothing about future co-operation on foreign policy and defence; the UK wanted no institutional links. But will a future UK govt see the case for ties that would enable it to learn what the EU governments are thinking, and influence them? 2/6
Will the new quasi-border in the Irish Sea prove politically sustainable? Unionists (and some Tories) will hate the checks on goods going from GB to NI, and the fact that NI stays partly in EU single market & customs union. Some may be tempted to tear up the NI Protocol. 3/6
The UK has won the right to abandon EU standards on social, environment, state aid - at great cost in reduced mkt access. But will UK choose to exercise that right, to achieve 'Singapore-on-Thames', or will it in practice stay closely aligned, as many businesses would prefer? 4/6
Will the new dispute settlement mechanism be working overtime, for years ahead, with both sides taking an antagonistic and legalistic approach? Or will high-level summits and chats rebuild trust and foster a co-operative relationship? 5/6
The answer to these questions depends on the future of the Tory party. Will the nationalist-nativist tendency stay in charge, seeking to win votes and good headlines through bashing Brussels? Or will the moderates recover their strength and pursue pro-business policies? END

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More from @CER_Grant

24 Dec 20
.@CER_EU will be analysing the #Brexit deal in due course, when there is a text to study. In the meantime here are 10 reflections on the Brexit process - a thread. /1
1. Getting a free trade agreem't done in less than a year is unusually quick. Both teams of negotiators deserve praise. UK's refusal to extend transition may have helped, by concentrating minds. The cost: great uncertainty for firms, which haven't known what rules to expect. /2
2. Most Brits have no idea how hard Brexit will be. Travelers, manufacturers & farmers will suffer irksome friction at borders; service companies will lose access to EU markets; businesses that import EU workers will be hurt. So UK will be less attractive to foreign investors. /3
Read 11 tweets
8 Dec 20
Both sides in the Brexit talks seem to be suffering from a dearth of intel on what the other side is really thinking. At the moment, EU may not appreciate that Johnson really doesn't seem to care about the rational arguments pro a deal. He is relaxed about no deal. @CER_EU /1
But the UK has persistently mis-read EU throughout Brexit process, eg thinking German exporters will ride to rescue, or that the nice member-states need to intervene v. the nasty @MichelBarnier, or that the EU is so scared of no deal, that if UK is tough Barnier will fold. /3
At the top of UK government there are few ministers, civil servants or special advisers with a profound knowledge of the EU, or wide-ranging networks of contacts in European capitals. Many of the people who know about the EU have been side-lined. /4
Read 5 tweets
27 Nov 20
On the #Brexit talks, I hear good and bad news - a short thread. The good news is that on most of the contentious issues - state aid, level playing field, dispute settlement - there has been movement and real progress. @CER_London /1
The bad news: there has been no progress at all on fish. Neither EU (pressed by France) nor UK can easily compromise. Tory MPs care more about fish than eg state aid. And I hear @MichelBarnier is today meeting fisheries ministers - who will presumably tell him not to move. /2
Someone quite close to the talks says he worries that the nature of the process could lead to an unintended crash. All the talking has to happen between Barnier and @DavidGHFrost and their teams - neither team wants others involved. Yet neither team can easily be flexible. /3
Read 5 tweets
7 Nov 20
What will be the impact of Trump's 4 years, Biden's arrival and COVID-19 on global politics, over the next five years or so? A few thoughts in a thread. @CER_EU /1
America is weaker. Trump's antics have damaged the US's soft power - and the recent election process hasn't helped. Poor handling of the pandemic has harmed the US's reputation and economy. Biden will polish its image but Republicans will stop him making big changes. /2
Conversely China has had a good COVID-19, apart from an initial wobble, having successfully suppressed the virus and even achieved economic growth this year. This will further boost its already excessive self-confidence. /3
Read 18 tweets
10 Sep 20
Assuming that HMG sticks with its apparent plan of scrapping parts of Withdrawal Agreement and doing without an EU-UK trade accord, I foresee 10 consequences - a short thread. @CER_EU /1
The PM wants to eliminate the border in Irish Sea. That means a border of some sort between NI & ROI, to police EU's single mkt & customs union. In the view of many, including most ROI politicians, that endangers Good Friday Agreement. One reason Republican terrorists..../2
laid down their arms was that that border went. So consequence 1) A very bad UK-Ireland relationship. Consequence 2) An annoyed US political class that will block any UK-US trade accord (as Pelosi has spelled out). Consequence 3) Increased likelihood of violence in NI... /3
Read 12 tweets
6 Aug 20
Having spoken to senior people in Brussels on #Brexit, a short thread. They expect the crunch in late Sep or Oct. For now they think @DavidGHFrost lacks a mandate to make the compromises that wd advance the talks. They think HMG divided on whether it wants a deal. @CER_EU /1
The key to unlocking a deal is for UK to make a proposal for its state aid regime. Everything else wd then fall into place, including fish, which being so political will be the last issue to be settled. When EU happy on state aid and level playing field it'll move on fish. /2
Everyone knows what the LPF compromise will be: UK will promise not to lower standards, EU'll have right to punish UK if it does. EU side - even France - can envisage compromises on financial services equivalence & data adequacy (though recent ECJ ruling makes latter harder). /3
Read 5 tweets

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