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11 Jan, 13 tweets, 6 min read
Quick thread on #NIODay from this weekend, the effect it is having on $TSLA, $BYDDF, $QS, $LAZR, $NVDA, CATL, and what is to come.

The NIO ET7 boasts 621mi range (150kWh battery) for $70k-$80k & Level 3 autonomy. This prices right in-between Model 3 SR+ & base Model S.
2/ $TSLA is down -6% today, largely on this news. Not surprising, but TSLA bulls aren't flinching from this. NIO ET7 isn't really expected to hit the roads until late next year–enough time for Tesla to refresh S/X & boost pack size, TSLA bulls think.

$NIO is up 8.5% today.
3/ BYD (1211 HK) was up 6.7% in China on Monday partially on the news of its surprise unveiling this morning of 3 new "super hybrid" models (PHEV): Qin PLUS DM-i, Song PLUS DM-i, & Tang DM-i.

$BYDDF is up 3.5% today
4/ BYD is also benefiting from #NIODay, as investors are excited about NIO ET7 specs, but it is still at least a year out. More investors are discovering BYD & how far ahead it is TODAY. BYD Han in particular already looks similar to NIO ET7...

$BYDDF $BYDDY
5/ ...and you can buy a Han today for only $32k. Lots of investor attention has been brought to BYD Blade battery, as well.

More on BYD here: seekingalpha.com/article/438862…

seekingalpha.com/article/438212…

$BYDDF $BYDDY
6/ Investors are boiling it all down:

BYD is still the only car manufacturer producing its own batteries.

Blade battery is the cheapest & safest battery in the industry.

BYD is profitable, has the most diversified EV line-up, by far, & stock is cheap.

7/ @QuantumScapeCo $QS is down -6.9% today, mostly on news of how NIO ET7 will achieve 621mi range: high-density solar-state battery. This is similar to what $QS is working on, but NIO's timeline for a SSB (Q4 2022) is ahead of QS's, which rules QS out as NIO's SSB supplier.
8/ As for the mystery supplier of $NIO's new SSB, it will likely be CATL; however, the market didn't know how to handle CATL stock, which closed -3.6% in China, despite high trading volume.
9/ CATL currently supplies NIO with all of its batteries.

NIO CEO Li Bin said it will "adopt" this technology, but didn't say from whom.

Also, anyone who thinks NIO is making these batteries itself probably also believes Tesla will produce 10GWh of 4680 cells this year...
10/ NIO also debuted its approach to autonomy (Level 3), which will use 1550nm LiDAR from Innovusion, in which NIO's venture arm invested in 2018.

@luminartech's Iris LiDAR has comparable specs, but similar to how $QS is reacting to #NIODay, $LAZR is down -5.5% today.
11/ $NVDA is up 4.6% today partially on #CES2021 GPU news, but also on news NIO ET7 will use 4 @NVIDIADRIVE Orin chips to power NIO's Adam supercomputer for "NIO Autonomous Driving" (NAD). Similar to BaaS, NIO will offer Autonomy-as-a-Service AaaS (I'm coining that) for $105/mo.
TL;DR
$NIO ET7: Ready for tomorrow, not today. The market is confused, as usual.
Solid-state*

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More from @TaylorOgan

Taylor Ogan Profile picture
8 Oct 20
1/ Thread following up on our $TSLA Q3 production & delivery estimates from last week: our estimates were high for three main reasons, which we will go into.

@snowbullcapital
2/ Our S/X production estimates were off by only 149 vehicles, & S/X delivery estimates by 700. We thought there would be a bit more inventory this quarter, but our accuracy here is pretty consistent with previous quarters, as we used the same methods. 3/Y is where it was hard.
3/ S/X production lines (GA1 & GA2) have changed very little since Fremont reopened, and we expect similar production capacity to remain through the next 3+ quarters on these lines.
Read 24 tweets
Taylor Ogan Profile picture
1 Oct 20
@snowbullcapital In China, MIC SR+ Model 3s are already rolling off the line with CATL’s LFP batteries. Interestingly, the new batteries weigh the same as LG Chem’s batteries in MIC LR RWD Model 3s.
@snowbullcapital In terms of MIC Model Y, the Fremont Model Y assembly engineering team has been at GF3 during the factory ‘shut down’ last week building NEW Model Y lines (not retooling existing Model 3 lines, as many thought).
@snowbullcapital The Model Y lines are going to be nearly identical to the most recent Model Y line at Fremont, at first. That won't take long.
Read 13 tweets
Taylor Ogan Profile picture
23 Sep 20
1/ No, @skorusARK. Think this through. First of all, you really think that Tesla would waste its already-constrained battery production on a 90kWh pack for a "car for the masses" with a 405mi range?! NO! Tesla has no issue currently selling $38k Model 3s with 250mi range.
2/ Let's be more realistic. The "Model 2" will likely have a 45kWh pack, with a range of 202mi (4.5mi/kWh) to 243mi (5.4mi/kWh). ID.3 range.
3/ Also, why are you keeping gross margins fixed? If Tesla can even get down to $56/kWh, $56/kWh x 45kWh = $2,520 ÷ $25,000 = 10.1% of COGS, which imputes an increase of 9.1% that can be, ceteris paribus, added to the current 15% gross margin = 24.1% total gross margin.
Read 6 tweets
Taylor Ogan Profile picture
8 Sep 20
1/ For those wanting extreme granularity for , using @TroyTeslike's Model Y survey and @snowbullcapital's data, here’s a thread of some of the Model Y data thus far (up to VIN 47k).
2/ The most common Model Y trim is the Long Range AWD with Pearl White Multi-Coat, 19” Gemini Wheels, All Black interior, with no FSD (15%). The rarest Model Y Trim is the Performance with Solid Black paint, 21’’ Überturbine Wheels, Black and White interior, with FSD (0.53%). Image
3/ Paint color is consistent between Performance and non-performance Model Ys. Image
Read 8 tweets
Taylor Ogan Profile picture
3 Jun 20
This is a really interesting example of how misleading reporters can be on technologies they don't fully understand. I'm making a thread to summarize what's going on. It's frustrating to see how easily misguided the general public is on some really game-changing technologies.
1) BBG tech reporter @NicoAGrant tweeted a clickbaity quote from @zoom_us CEO @ericsyuan on Tuesday's Q1 earnings call that appears to suggest Zoom will stop encrypting free calls and will turn over flagged content to law enforcement unless users pay for encryption.
2) This led to a swarm of people boycotting Zoom, as you can imagine. Especially amid these tense times, many people thought "work together with FBI" meant "Zoom will help the government to surveil activity it deems potentially unlawful". This is far from the truth.
Read 9 tweets
Taylor Ogan Profile picture
4 May 20
@Tesla's Investor Battery Day is rumored to announce a "Terafactory" for terawatt-hours of battery production. A Terafactory theoretically would produce over a terawatt-hour of battery capacity (1,000 GWh). This isn't possible. Let's put 1,000 GWh into perspective...
1,000 GWh is ~20x the current capacity of Panasonic’s production at Gigafactory Nevada, and ~15x times current global EV battery production. A terafactory won't be possible for many years. For one, the supply chain isn't there, especially in North America.
The world would still need 5 terafactories and ~12 years to electrify 99% of cars on the road if 5 terafactories miraculously appeared overnight. This doesn't even account for stationary power battery production.
Read 5 tweets

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