The new updates in Ontario seem grim, and a new harsher lockdown is coming, but here's a few things I think can help get us bck on track. Many of my colleagues are either in despair or resigned to a brutal Spring in the hospitals, but it doesn't have to be this way...
1) Rapid testing strips are sitting by the millions on shelves. They are not being released to municipalities to use in hot spots. I spoke with one mayor who needs them STAT. Other countries have shown the way, and more tests are available now:
2) Several new therapies have been developed, including monoclonal antibodies like Bamlanivimab and Regeneron, which can be used on older, at-risk populations, potentially averting prolonged ICU admissions and death. These give passive immunity. One possible criteria:
They have to be given within a few days of the start of mild symptoms when the virus is replicating the most, if you wait until a patient gets sicker or needs ICU, its already too late. There's only phase 2 trial data, and benefit is not certain, but not much evidence of harm
For hospitalized patients new results from the REMAP-CAP study show much improved survival in ICU patients with Tocilizumab and Sarilumab (both IL-6 inhibitors). They also have to be given at just the right time to make a difference in mortality
Moving medical practice can often take too long, months and years even, and many ICUs are still giving Remdesivir, originally designed to fight Ebola and with fairly shaky evidence behind it. Some of these tensions are covered in this excellent piece: nytimes.com/2020/08/05/mag…
3) Ventilation is finally being addressed by authorities in Canada following the publishing of our open letter, signed by hundreds of top authorities in engineering and public health.
Practical steps you can take now:
- Evaluate air quality in your space, use CO2 monitors if you can't get engineers to help
- Use HEPA filters in smaller rooms (like clinic rooms or classrooms) if you can't ensure at least 3 air changes per hour
- Assess central air filters
4) Small classes - its becoming increasingly clear that kids are a major vector of covid spread, with their test positivity as high as 20%. Class sizes need to be kept to a minimum, and masks required from kindergarten onwards
5) Paid sick days - Many folks work in essential jobs and can't distance or have no say on workplace safety measures. Losing one days income can be a huge blow to many; seamless, easy to access sick benefits would be a boon even after the pandemic:
To conclude: I hope some of these measures are adopted, it would certainly alleviate suffering and possible deaths and prevent economic damage, but given how slowly and ineffectively we move in this country, I am not optimistic. Prove me wrong Canada!
Looks like the province is moving to get the private sector to test workers. This will be huge if it can be done properly!
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Several Toronto area hospitals are closing their pediatric wards and converting to treat adult Covid patients. All kids needing admission will go downtown to @sickkids. And just in time for schools to open. If I were you, and if you have the option, keep your kids at home...
... and we do need to make sure families not in privileged positions have the means to take care of their kids as well.
Apologies, won’t be able to answer questions here as I’m working in full Ppe all day. Media can email info@mask4canada.org and we’ll someone to chat with you
Thanks to @MLInstitute for publishing our editorial on Canada's failure to approve and use rapid testing effectively in this pandemic. Many reasons we outline in the paper, but they need to be overcome if we want to beat this.
Thread -> macdonaldlaurier.ca/failure-use-ra…
Even with vaccinations starting now, no one should assume the pandemic is over; it will take until late summer/early fall before normal life can resume. Rapid tests, done properly can help stop the cycle of lockdowns and reopenings we find ourselves caught in.
Halifax, Slovakia, Liverpool and other examples show that it can be done to suppress numbers, we just need to find the political will and logistical moxie to pull it off. This is something I wrote a few weeks ago:
Lots of attention (finally) on rapid tests today, but it is important that they be used properly and in the right setting. They have limits, they are best at picking up people who are acutely contagious, they won't pick up those who are exposed and incubating the virus.
They need to be done frequently on a large population, perhaps twice a week. Someone testing negative one day, could very well test positive the next day. They are not a replacement for PCR testing.
They need to be coupled with supports; lots of the hotspots are in workplaces where people live paycheck to paycheck. We need to support these workers so that they keep their families fed while keeping their co-workers safe. Federal sick leave benefits should kick in seamlessly
To get to #COVIDzero we need to look at Slovakia. Over two weekends, they brought their numbers crashing down, from an R0 of 1.47 to 0.62 in just two weeks Thread ->
How did they do it?
- They used two rapid tests from South Korea (Rapigen and SD Biosensor)
- They tested everyone between 10-65 twice over Oct 30-Nov 1, and Nov 6-8.
- Positive tests were isolated for 10 days.
- Untested citizens isolated for 10 days
Impressively, they mobilized 5000 eight-person teams, composed of health care workers, military medics and others.
They used polling stations as makeshift testing centres.
Results were available in 15 minutes
This way, they were able to test 3.6m out of 5.4m total population.
I and #Masks4Canada are joining with many across the country in advocating for #CovidZero, the elimination of Covid-19 from our communities. I once thought this idea impossible, but watching Melbourne, Halifax and the rest of the Atlantic do it has been inspiring. Thread ->
This is likely the only way we’ll be able to save many lives, businesses and to return to some semblance of a normal life before vaccines are rolled out. Watching the US and Europe go through wrenching spikes and lockdowns is instructive. We can avoid their fate.
First, we need to aim for zero. Lockdowns are coming in parts of the country, which are futile until leaks in our system are plugged. Including:
- Locking down the US border (for real this time)
- Setting regional bubbles
- Bring in the Australian mandatory quarantine system
How do we prevent US style polarization from wrecking Canada?
Already here we are seeing signs of populist echo chambers, fueled by new right-wing news sources and through private Facebook groups.
Like it or not, the US election was far closer than expected, especially given Trump’s missteps on Covid19 and ethical and many other lapses. Exit polls of his voters consistently showed that law and order as well as economic issues were their main concerns.
Hidden Tribes breaks the electorate into a number of camps. What’s interesting is the centre-left and centre-right folks form a silent majority. It’s extremists on the fringes who drive polarization, and the same is happening here. hiddentribes.us