We broke 4000 deaths again today. 2nd time ever. We are headed to 5000 deaths/day before end of Feb.

➡️We need to vaccinate at **least 1 mil/day**. But if the B117 variant takes hold & becomes dominant in US, we will need to have *2 mil/day vaccinated*. Honest reality. #COVID19
2) This is why I’m so worried. The B117 went from 9% to now 45% of sequenced #SARSCoV2 in Ireland 🇮🇪 within 3 weeks. England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 is also completely overwhelmed. We know it is here in US and spreading.
3) the more infectious B117 variant will literally take over if given the chance. Denmark 🇩🇰 CDC is extremely pessimistic that they tested 11k samples in just 1 month for B117, and now think it’s takeover be unstoppable by Feb/March.

Ps. USA has sequenced just ~750 in 1 month.
4) To be clear—even if we hold the virus in check with a minimum R=0.96... by the time the new virus variant takes hold, it will be woefully insufficient, since the B117 strain is 40-80% more infectious (multiply current R*1.4 or *1.8). Other experts agree....
5) Notably, the virus is such a beast—suppose we have 1000 cases/day now... with an R=0.86 we could reduce it to 500/day in 2 weeks.

➡️But w/ added contagiousness of B117 variant with ~60% higher R, in 2 weeks, we’d have 3000 new cases/day instead—3x baseline

➡️6x vs regular.
6) Folks, US needs to vaccinate **2 mil/day** (14 mil/week) to stay ahead of #COVID19, as @PeterHotez tells @jchatterleyCNN.

➡️This 2 mil/day is much higher than earlier estimates (2 mil/week for UK 🇬🇧 pop, 10 mil/week for US 🇺🇸). We are so way behind.
7) UK 🇬🇧 expert group @IndependentSage says they are “now out of control” with the 40-80% more contagious #B117 variant of #SARSCoV2. We will be next if we don’t act.
8) This is meantime a really bad signal...
9) we are just having so much winning, that we are now tired of it.

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More from @DrEricDing

14 Jan
WORRISOME & SERIOUS—You know how the world put travel bans against UK 🇬🇧 travel out of fear of the #B117 more contagious variant? Well, now, UK🇬🇧 put travel ban from Latin America & Portugal 🇵🇹 because U.K. thinks Brazil 🇧🇷 #COVID19 variant is *worse*. 🧵
2) At least two coronavirus variants are currently circulating in Brazil, and at least one has slipped its borders, traveling to Japan. Japanese authorities found one of those variants in four people traveling from Brazil earlier this week...
3) The variant contains a mutation that has been linked with higher contagiousness, similar to the variant found in 🇬🇧 and another in South Africa. Like the variant found in 🇿🇦, the one exported from Brazil to Japan also carries a mutation that may weaken the efficacy of vaccines
Read 9 tweets
14 Jan
President-elect Biden is unveiling a $1.9 trillion aid package—$1400 direct payments, over $400 billion to combat the #covid19 pandemic, including accelerating vaccine deployment and safely reopening most schools within 100 days of passage. 🧵 nytimes.com/2021/01/14/bus…
2) also $350 million for states and cities suffering. It also features more help for workers and families, payments, more generous unemployment benefits, federally mandated paid leave for workers and large monthly subsidies for child care costs.
4) “The $20 billion “national vaccine program” he will announce on Thursday envisions community vaccination centers around US. Biden has said he would like to see mass vaccination sites in gymnasiums, sports stadiums and the like, perhaps staffed by National Guard or FEMA.
Read 5 tweets
14 Jan
BEST NEWS ALL DAY—@ASlavitt is joining Biden’s COVID Task Force!!! If you didn’t know who Andy Slavitt is—he was Obama’s acting chief of @CMSGov. Slavitt famously helped fix the botched rollout of its healthcare.gov website, along w/ Jeff Zients. cnn.com/2021/01/14/pol… Image
2) “Zients has been deliberating over Slavitt's hire for some time now, the source said, and is said to have described him as someone who would be invaluable in tackling a crisis of Covid's magnitude.
3) “Working hand-in-hand with Zients, Slavitt is expected to focus in part on messaging around Covid and vaccine distribution -- a challenge that incoming Biden officials have described as unprecedented -- including trying to build up public trust about the vaccine.
Read 4 tweets
14 Jan
PLEASE don’t forget the pandemic—it’s easy to be distracted by Trump drama in DC, but we cannot let up on the other global & national crisis. #COVID19 hit 2 consecutive 4000+ death days in a row in US & well on its way to 5000+ soon. 🧵 on key priorities:
axios.com/america-corona… Image
2) First, given how many don’t wear masks, we can’t rely on cloth mask guidance everywhere alone. In high risk groups and higher risk settings like crowded stores & public bathrooms, we need premium masks (KN95, KF94, FFP2, etc)—minimum surgical. We need DPA production for them.
3) We need HEPA filters for all schools 🏫 & potentially “upper air” germicidal UV for schools & public buildings that can afford it. Upper air UV is only UV for ceiling, which fans circulate air upwards to disinfect—yielding high 15-17x/hr air exchange, says Dr. @ShellyMBoulder.
Read 9 tweets
14 Jan
NEW—FBI has now in custody the man carrying the Confederate flag in Capitol siege—Kevin Seefried, plus Hunter Seefried—father and son together. google.com/amp/s/amp.dela… Image
3) why do we need to fully prosecute and not give plea deals / wrist slaps? Because fascism rises when it is allowed to simmer. It’s like a virus that is not killed off quickly - it can become more dangerous variant over time if unchecked.
Read 4 tweets
14 Jan
NEW—The Trump WH and then-Attorney General Jeff Sessions pushed their “Zero Tolerance” border crackdown in 2018 knowing that it would separate migrant children from their parents and despite warnings that US was ill-prepared to deal w/ the consequences. washingtonpost.com/national/trump…
2) “The report called the Justice Department and the attorney general’s office a “driving force” in making sure the DHS aggressively increased the prosecution of adults arriving W/ children—casting doubt on statements that WH “never really intended” to separate families.”
3) “The Justice Department’s “single-minded focus on increasing immigration prosecutions came at the expense of careful and appropriate consideration of the impact of family unit prosecutions and child separations,”
Read 4 tweets

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