1) Let's talk about something that a lot of people find weird and don't get.

Pop mart

It's a $14 billion dollar company that sells miniature figurines in 'blind' boxes. So called as you don't know what you're getting until you open it.

Yeah, that's all they sell
2) Pop mart started as a lifestyle shop in 2010 and initially sold a range of home goods, beauty and toys. But it struggled to find a niche.

As the end of year tally came in, a figurine toy sold more than any other items in the store. The team decided to pivot.
3) The proposition for Pop Mart is blindingly simple. You go to one of its numerous vending machines, shops or online stores and for a not so cheap $9 dollars, buy a boxed figurine. You only know the set it is part of, but not the precise figure you're getting
4) The odds of getting all the figurines are not equal - a rare one has a 1/144 chance of being in the box.

The typical buyers are typically 18-35 white collar workers in top tier cities and they are 75% female.

So what's the appeal?
5) I'll give my takes from mild to spicy.

Mild: This is a generation of Chinese millennials finding their own way of self expression. The figurines are well crafted, cute and affordable.

The blind box element adds a note of surprise to the whole affair.
6) Medium: This is effectively disruption of the traditional pricey anime figurine market that's been popular with weebs around the world.

The desire to collect is human nature and Pop mart has savvied tapped into an underserved segment - the female market
7) Spicy: This is gambling and a store of value

Getting your hands on a rare item is highly lucractive, on the secondary markets they can go up to 10x+ their original cost easily. The blind factor leads up to the anticipation of a big payoff
8) This is manufactured scarcity of the highest order. And I'm impressed with what Pop mart has achieved. They plan to increase their IP selection going forward and essentially become the merchandising section for content companies.
9) The clearest comparison is that sneaker platforms like GOAT and StockX have gained incredible prominence over the years. Maybe we need a collectables equivalent since I'm not sure what eBay has been doing.
I'll be writing threads like this for the rest of Jan. Follow me if you want these to spam your TL.

Back to our regular tech programming tomorrow
Updated: I got one, looking forward to that sweet sweet gambler’s high

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More from @lillianmli

15 Jan
1) Let's talk about social-commerce, limitations of growth for a community and why there is no good Chinese Instagram equivalent.

In modern China, XiaoHungShu aka Little Red Book aka RED is no longer the Mao manifesto, but rather a shopping app.
2) XHS was founded by friends Miranda Qu and Charlwin Mao in 2014. Initially, it was conceived as a travel app, the founders wanted something that let them know what spots were cool and what goods to get when they're abroad
3) For context, I would say shopping abroad has been a major Chinese middle-class hobby due to:
1) Perception that foreign goods are of higher quality
2) Cheaper prices for equivalent goods relative to China as no import tax
3) Verified authenticity
Read 16 tweets
12 Jan
1) Let's talk about my reaction to @packyM's Alibaba longform. (Oh yeah, Substack deserves its own reaction genre).

While I enjoy Packy work, I think this piece missed local context (similar to a lot of English writing on Chinese tech rn).

notboring.substack.com/p/baba-black-s…
2) My credentials. Masters in International Development with a dissertation on Chinese governance. Worked in VC for 5 years, last at Eight Roads Ventures aka Fidelity Growth Partners re-branded aka first round investors in Alibaba.

3) Lastly I'm in China rn and speak Chinese, and write a newsletter on Chinese tech. I'm not an 'expert' and I don't speak for all of China. But I know enough to be dangerous.

I'll go through some tropes I felt the article touched on before going into the crux of the issue
Read 29 tweets
11 Jan
1) Let's talk about my favourite video platform Bilibili. What is it, what it isn't and and how it makes money. It's been called the Chinese YouTube that that framing lacks imaginary.

The $bili stock also 5x in 2020 - who knew weebs could be so lucrative
2) Grossly simplified, it's the Chinese equivalent of Youtube. Except it's not. It's like if Youtube, Twitch, Steam, Patreon, TokyoPop and Netflix had a CRISPR-baby, and that baby was a weeb, but that weeb is also super down with Chinese Gen Z
3) Bilibili was founded in 2010 by avid Anime, Gaming and Comics (AGC) fan Yi Xu from a frustration that the mainstay Chinese anime platform kept crashing with no consistent access to his beloved vocaloid Miku
Read 19 tweets
10 Jan
1) Let's talk about Tesla's China strategy. There's a few questions here - why did the Chinese government actively encourage them to set up in Shanghai? What's in it for Tesla? Why is Tesla continously discounting their cars?

Spoiler alert: $TSLA go brrr
2) Our story starts all the way back in 2013, when smog was so bad Beijing didn't see any blue sky for months. Policy pivots were in order, and new energy bills with specific support for electric vehicles (EV) were introduced.
3) Over the next few years subsidies from the government were handed out to any car companies that said they were going electric. A single EV could get up to $22k worth of subsidies (provided they could drive for 250 km).

Sales increased and the EV market steady grew
Read 14 tweets
10 Jan
My Jan 2021 thread of threads. I'm doing a thread a day on topics of technology, China, product design, culture and investment in a shameless bid to get followers and highlight my newsletter

lillianli.substack.com

Here's what I've written:
1) Jan 01 - Chinese meme of 'Labours' that highlights growing anti-capitalist sentiment

2) Jan 02 - Meituan's founding story and it's path to winning.

Read 11 tweets
9 Jan
1) Let's talk about Baidu's fall from grace - from being synonymous with Chinese tech in the form of BAT with a market cap of $110bn to now - a punchline for when a tech trend has ended.

Why did Baidu fall behind?
2) Baidu hustled hard in its early days, it was facing off Yahoo and Google who had first movers advantage in the Chinese market.

They did well in localising search and offering a suite of products such as music and forums to woo the information hungry Chinese consumer
3) When Google fully pulled out of the Chinese market in 2009, Baidu was on top of the world. It went from owning 66% market share to 100% overnight in the biggest consumer market in the world.

Money basically printed itself through advertising. Everyone could just chill.
Read 16 tweets

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