1) Let's talk about social-commerce, limitations of growth for a community and why there is no good Chinese Instagram equivalent.
In modern China, XiaoHungShu aka Little Red Book aka RED is no longer the Mao manifesto, but rather a shopping app.
2) XHS was founded by friends Miranda Qu and Charlwin Mao in 2014. Initially, it was conceived as a travel app, the founders wanted something that let them know what spots were cool and what goods to get when they're abroad
3) For context, I would say shopping abroad has been a major Chinese middle-class hobby due to: 1) Perception that foreign goods are of higher quality 2) Cheaper prices for equivalent goods relative to China as no import tax 3) Verified authenticity
4) XHS tapped into this desire by creating an online community where people can share details of what they brought and where. In elaborate posts with multiple accompanying pictures. Showing off your lavish life while being helpful is fun.
5) After building up a robust and lively community among mostly affluent young women, XHS moved into cross-border commerce in 2015. Now rather than just looking at the pretty items from France, you can buy them.
6) Similar to Bilibili, XHS avoided monetising via adverts to engender a high trust environment for consumers (for now, duh duh). That also means they when they monetised by selling products, consumers trusted their authenticity. Initially, they have 15% conversion purchases rate
7) It's interesting that most Chinese tech apps will want to build their e-commerce capabilities themselves. A few reasons 1) It's a defensible moat 2) There's enough traffic in Chinese e-commerce to justify the investment 3) It's a more frictionless buying experience
8) They want to own the entire funnel from discovering to purchase rather than narrow themselves to functional capabilities.
Every Chinese tech companies' core competence is to make money.
9) 2018 is the year that XHS really make the mainstream, influencers and celebrities are flocking there to share their make-up routine and beauty tips. But alongside the growth, the community is getting diluted with large influxes of people all looking for ways to make a buck.
10) Content becomes more professionalised, early creators see their traffic deprioritised for big-name late joiners. Click-baits start appearing and creators are approached by numerous upstart brands to put their product as 'organic content' on XHS
11) XHS starts getting a reputation as where fake rich women go to pretend to be fake rich. The authenticity appeal of their initial days fades. All the while, every other super-app has also incorporated photo and sharing into their own apps. Meituan has it, Ctrip has it, etc
12) In 2019 reports appeared that XHS is rampant with fraudulent reviews. Sometimes for non-licensed practitioners of beauty treatments or unproven medicinal treatments. In Sept 2019, XHS app was pulled from many android stores as the result of a government crack-down.
13) XHS is back up with a lot more moderation but it was badly bruised during the shutdown, influencers left the platform and start-ups decamped to other traffic channels. They were also relatively late to the livestreaming e-commerce game as their photo content was so good
14) That being said, XHS's sway in the aspiration millennial's mind is set. Their feed is largely driven by algorithm and is highly dynamic. Whenever I linger on a post I can be sure to find more like it as soon as I get back on the main feed.
15) I do think XHS presents an interesting example of the effect of growth on the community, a case I think about a lot for Bilibili. How do you maintain quality and avoid extractors while growing users fast? Or is that an oxymoron at scale?
I'll be doing threads like these for the rest of Jan, follow me if you want these to spam your TL.
Also, am I too shallow for wanting to get to 10k followers?
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1) Let's talk about something that a lot of people find weird and don't get.
Pop mart
It's a $14 billion dollar company that sells miniature figurines in 'blind' boxes. So called as you don't know what you're getting until you open it.
Yeah, that's all they sell
2) Pop mart started as a lifestyle shop in 2010 and initially sold a range of home goods, beauty and toys. But it struggled to find a niche.
As the end of year tally came in, a figurine toy sold more than any other items in the store. The team decided to pivot.
3) The proposition for Pop Mart is blindingly simple. You go to one of its numerous vending machines, shops or online stores and for a not so cheap $9 dollars, buy a boxed figurine. You only know the set it is part of, but not the precise figure you're getting
2) My credentials. Masters in International Development with a dissertation on Chinese governance. Worked in VC for 5 years, last at Eight Roads Ventures aka Fidelity Growth Partners re-branded aka first round investors in Alibaba.
3) Lastly I'm in China rn and speak Chinese, and write a newsletter on Chinese tech. I'm not an 'expert' and I don't speak for all of China. But I know enough to be dangerous.
I'll go through some tropes I felt the article touched on before going into the crux of the issue
1) Let's talk about my favourite video platform Bilibili. What is it, what it isn't and and how it makes money. It's been called the Chinese YouTube that that framing lacks imaginary.
The $bili stock also 5x in 2020 - who knew weebs could be so lucrative
2) Grossly simplified, it's the Chinese equivalent of Youtube. Except it's not. It's like if Youtube, Twitch, Steam, Patreon, TokyoPop and Netflix had a CRISPR-baby, and that baby was a weeb, but that weeb is also super down with Chinese Gen Z
3) Bilibili was founded in 2010 by avid Anime, Gaming and Comics (AGC) fan Yi Xu from a frustration that the mainstay Chinese anime platform kept crashing with no consistent access to his beloved vocaloid Miku
1) Let's talk about Tesla's China strategy. There's a few questions here - why did the Chinese government actively encourage them to set up in Shanghai? What's in it for Tesla? Why is Tesla continously discounting their cars?
Spoiler alert: $TSLA go brrr
2) Our story starts all the way back in 2013, when smog was so bad Beijing didn't see any blue sky for months. Policy pivots were in order, and new energy bills with specific support for electric vehicles (EV) were introduced.
3) Over the next few years subsidies from the government were handed out to any car companies that said they were going electric. A single EV could get up to $22k worth of subsidies (provided they could drive for 250 km).
My Jan 2021 thread of threads. I'm doing a thread a day on topics of technology, China, product design, culture and investment in a shameless bid to get followers and highlight my newsletter
1) Let's talk about Baidu's fall from grace - from being synonymous with Chinese tech in the form of BAT with a market cap of $110bn to now - a punchline for when a tech trend has ended.
Why did Baidu fall behind?
2) Baidu hustled hard in its early days, it was facing off Yahoo and Google who had first movers advantage in the Chinese market.
They did well in localising search and offering a suite of products such as music and forums to woo the information hungry Chinese consumer
3) When Google fully pulled out of the Chinese market in 2009, Baidu was on top of the world. It went from owning 66% market share to 100% overnight in the biggest consumer market in the world.
Money basically printed itself through advertising. Everyone could just chill.