As the UK tragically hits a record number of Covid-19 deaths, Covid-sceptic-in-chief @toadmeister appears to have deleted all his tweets from last year.

That's not surprising. Here are some of the things he claimed over the last year - a thread.
"Should we be worried about the uptick in cases? Almost certainly not. It’s due to recent increases in testing capacity... Given the over-sensitivity of the PCR test, the rise in new cases is telling us just how many people have had Covid-19 in the past"

Telegraph, 7 September
"as we sceptics are fond of pointing out, almost no one has the virus any more."

Spectator, 15 August
"we were told... the number of infected people was on the rise again... the rise was due to a combination of increased testing and false positives."

Telegraph, 14 August 2020
The check-in process at Heathrow took at least four times longer than usual and having to wear a face nappy for the entire journey was a pain in the bum. But... in Venice things started to look up – I’d finally escaped Gulag Britain."

Telegraph, 12 August
I may... convene a public inquiry of my own. The experts I’ll invite to sit on the panel won’t be the usual hacks with an axe to grind... They’ll be [like] Sunetra Gupta, the Oxford epidemiologist who believes we may have achieved herd immunity already"

Spectator, 25 July
The scientists predict a massive resurgence of Covid-19 infections if we don’t “get on top of things” and that part of the report is unconvincing... the paper seems pessimistic about the level of immunity that the UK population has already acquired."

Telegraph, 14 July
"I’m going to go out on a limb and predict there will be no “second spike” – not now, and not in the autumn either. The virus has melted into thin air. It’s time to get back to normal."

Telegraph, 25 June
"The decision to place the entire country in suspended animation on March 23 will end up costing more lives than the pandemic... one of the worst decisions in our history."

Telegraph, 12 June
"in some parts of the country – such as London – the virus is expected to have completely vanished by the end of next month."

Telegraph, 29 May
And even if you catch the disease, it it may not be much more deadly than a bad bout of seasonal influenza... We should dispense with silly, over-cautious social-distancing rules... Let’s just get back to the way things were."

Telegraph, 29 May
"I was sent a paper by Mikko Paunio, a key scientific adviser to the Finnish Government, estimating that the infection fatality rate of Covid-19 is around 0.13 per cent – roughly the same as seasonal flu."

Telegraph, 18 April
"What happened to the British people’s bulldog spirit, , our instinctive libertarianism? ... It’s tempting to think the feminisation of British culture has left us bereft of manly virtues. We have become men without chests, to use CS Lewis’s phrase."

Telegraph, 18 April
"The choice is between switching to mitigation or maintaining the lockdown indefinitely... It’s inevitable that we’re going to have to abandon the suppression strategy before we develop a vaccine out of sheer economic necessity"

The Critic, 2 April
"Is the case fatality rate really as high as Professor Neil Ferguson and his team at Imperial College would have us believe? Dr John Ioannidis of Stanford University has speculated that it may end up being 0.05 per cent, lower than seasonal flu."

Telegraph, 3 April
"The country is well on its way to acquiring herd immunity and the much-ballyhooed “peak” that we’re trying to avoid by locking ourselves down won’t materialise."

The Critic, 31 March 2020
"Even if we accept the statistical modelling of Dr Neil Ferguson’s team... which I’ll come to in a minute, spending £350 billion to prolong the lives of a few hundred thousand mostly elderly people is an irresponsible use of taxpayers’ money."

The Critic, 31 March 2020
But sadly, he hasn't learned anything in 2021...
"A winter bed crisis in the NHS is an annual event... According to PHE, there was no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality in England in the final week of 2020"

The Critic, 11 January 2021*
"If you compare mortality in December of 2020 with average December mortality over the the last five years, there doesn't as far as I can see appear to be any increase at all"

"London Calling" podcast, 4 January 2020
"Some lockdown enthusiasts pick out a handful of examples where lockdowns have coincided with a fall in Covid deaths but that’s not a scientific approach."

The Critic, 11 January 2021
"If Whitty and Vallance had taken questions, I hope someone would have asked them what the projected number of cases would be on 13th Oct if you discount the 91% of “cases” that are false positives."

Tweet, (now deleted), 21 September 2020

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More from @NeilDotObrien

14 Jan
How to handle the Covid pandemic is the most important issue facing MPs right now.

So I wonder why Julia objects to me questioning the claims of her fellow covid-sceptics?

Here's a thread on some of the things *she* has claimed:
"Every journalist and MP should be asking the PM & Health Secretary: why are we using a Covid-19 test that has 90% false positives?"

Twitter, 20 September 2020
"THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT: Matt Hancock told me on @talkRADIO that the False Positive Rate of Covid tests in the community is "under 1%". Sounds good, doesn't it? WRONG!An FPR of 0.8% when the virus prevalence is so low means that at least 91% of "Covid cases" are FALSE POSITIVES."
Read 11 tweets
3 Jan
>We are facing a major crisis<

The current wave of the Coronavirus crisis is in many ways *worse* than the original spring surge. Quick thread:
The proportion of people tested who test positive has gone screaming up everywhere. Data up to 29th December:
The number of positive tests is going up everywhere - and is sky high in the greater south east...
Read 10 tweets
1 Jan
The Daily Telegraph leader today says: "Let's admit what we got wrong in 2020, and shake things up in 2021".

Great idea. I have some suggestions. How about:…
...The Telegraph publishing this piece by Toby Young in June, which claimed: "there will be no “second spike” – not now, and not in the autumn either. The virus has melted into thin air. It’s time to get back to normal."…
... or this Telegraph leader at the end of October, saying, "The Government is wrong to put England into lockdown".…
Read 7 tweets
26 Dec 20
The below is wrong at several levels. In England and Wales, 65,000 aged 65+ have died with it, plus over 7,400 working age people. Many had prior medical conditions, but we don't hold their lives to be valueless because Britain isn't a fascist state.
About one in ten had no prior conditions. But having a prior condition doesn't mean you are about to die! EG about 10,000 had diabetes. Theresa May has it and was Prime Minister! A study by Glasgow Uni suggested the average victim would have had another ten years - that's a lot.
Also: all that is *with* social distancing. Without it many more would have died as health services were overwhelmed.

To see what happens if you do nothing, look at Manaus, Brazil, where excavators dug huge trenches for bodies dumped in mass graves.…
Read 4 tweets
23 Dec 20
There are good reasons to be much more concerned about the new wave 3, than about wave 2 - a quick thread.
Here's the relationship between the number of cases in England among those aged 60+ and the number of people hospitalised by Covid - the one follows the other with a lag.
...And here is the relationship between Covid hospitalisations and deaths - again, the one follows the other with a lag
Read 8 tweets
21 Dec 20
My piece below looks at Sweden. Recent days have seen Sweden’s Nordic neighbours Finland and Norway offer emergency medical assistance as Stockholm’s hospitals overflow & the King make an unprecedented criticism of the failed strategy. What went wrong?…
Sweden started with massive advantages: more people living alone than anywhere else and a sparse population. But it ended up with death rates 9 and 10 times that of neighbours Finland and Norway
Nor has there been an economic upside for Sweden: in fact they had a bigger hit to their economy than their neighbours, as well as much worse health outcomes.
Read 6 tweets

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