How to handle the Covid pandemic is the most important issue facing MPs right now.

So I wonder why Julia objects to me questioning the claims of her fellow covid-sceptics?

Here's a thread on some of the things *she* has claimed:
"Every journalist and MP should be asking the PM & Health Secretary: why are we using a Covid-19 test that has 90% false positives?"

Twitter, 20 September 2020
"THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT: Matt Hancock told me on @talkRADIO that the False Positive Rate of Covid tests in the community is "under 1%". Sounds good, doesn't it? WRONG!An FPR of 0.8% when the virus prevalence is so low means that at least 91% of "Covid cases" are FALSE POSITIVES."
"We’re told that infections are rising out of control (they’re not – they’re rising, but at a slower rate); that our hospital ICUs are close to capacity (they’re not – they are at about the same capacity they always are at this time of year)"

Telegraph, 27 October
"We don't have 200 deaths from coronavirus a day. There are no excess deaths. Anyone in hospital with a respiratory disease gets tested for Covid... All the usual deaths from flu, pneumonia etc are now "Covid deaths".

Twitter, 21 October 2020
"Eminent experts such as Carl Heneghan, the professor of evidence based medicine at Oxford University, argue that a second wave is highly unlikely, that the uptick in infections due to increased testing will not lead to many thousands more dying"

Telegraph, 15 September
"despite the rising numbers, all the evidence points not to a second wave of the pandemic but to a second wave of panic by No 10."

"The public needs more than Project Fear", Telegraph, 22 September 2020
"locking down is at best a delaying tactic and at worst a mortal wound to our faltering economy... Despite their best efforts, there was nothing in what Whitty and Vallance had to say, or in any of their doom-laden graphics, to justify a second assault on our liberties." (ibid)
"The Government is planning to lockdown our country again when there is no evidence of a second wave. We cannot allow this to happen."

Twitter, 18 September
"The Science also tells us that the vast majority of very elderly people who get the virus will also survive."

Telegraph, 15 September
"The virus kills. It just isn’t causing excess deaths anymore."

Twitter, 4 January 2021

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More from @NeilDotObrien

14 Jan
As the UK tragically hits a record number of Covid-19 deaths, Covid-sceptic-in-chief @toadmeister appears to have deleted all his tweets from last year.

That's not surprising. Here are some of the things he claimed over the last year - a thread.
"Should we be worried about the uptick in cases? Almost certainly not. It’s due to recent increases in testing capacity... Given the over-sensitivity of the PCR test, the rise in new cases is telling us just how many people have had Covid-19 in the past"

Telegraph, 7 September
"as we sceptics are fond of pointing out, almost no one has the virus any more."

Spectator, 15 August
Read 22 tweets
3 Jan
>We are facing a major crisis<

The current wave of the Coronavirus crisis is in many ways *worse* than the original spring surge. Quick thread:
The proportion of people tested who test positive has gone screaming up everywhere. Data up to 29th December:
The number of positive tests is going up everywhere - and is sky high in the greater south east...
Read 10 tweets
1 Jan
The Daily Telegraph leader today says: "Let's admit what we got wrong in 2020, and shake things up in 2021".

Great idea. I have some suggestions. How about:

telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2021/0…
...The Telegraph publishing this piece by Toby Young in June, which claimed: "there will be no “second spike” – not now, and not in the autumn either. The virus has melted into thin air. It’s time to get back to normal."

telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/2…
... or this Telegraph leader at the end of October, saying, "The Government is wrong to put England into lockdown".

telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2020/1…
Read 7 tweets
26 Dec 20
The below is wrong at several levels. In England and Wales, 65,000 aged 65+ have died with it, plus over 7,400 working age people. Many had prior medical conditions, but we don't hold their lives to be valueless because Britain isn't a fascist state.
About one in ten had no prior conditions. But having a prior condition doesn't mean you are about to die! EG about 10,000 had diabetes. Theresa May has it and was Prime Minister! A study by Glasgow Uni suggested the average victim would have had another ten years - that's a lot.
Also: all that is *with* social distancing. Without it many more would have died as health services were overwhelmed.

To see what happens if you do nothing, look at Manaus, Brazil, where excavators dug huge trenches for bodies dumped in mass graves.

theguardian.com/world/2020/apr…
Read 4 tweets
23 Dec 20
There are good reasons to be much more concerned about the new wave 3, than about wave 2 - a quick thread.
Here's the relationship between the number of cases in England among those aged 60+ and the number of people hospitalised by Covid - the one follows the other with a lag.
...And here is the relationship between Covid hospitalisations and deaths - again, the one follows the other with a lag
Read 8 tweets
21 Dec 20
My piece below looks at Sweden. Recent days have seen Sweden’s Nordic neighbours Finland and Norway offer emergency medical assistance as Stockholm’s hospitals overflow & the King make an unprecedented criticism of the failed strategy. What went wrong?

newstatesman.com/world/europe/2…
Sweden started with massive advantages: more people living alone than anywhere else and a sparse population. But it ended up with death rates 9 and 10 times that of neighbours Finland and Norway
Nor has there been an economic upside for Sweden: in fact they had a bigger hit to their economy than their neighbours, as well as much worse health outcomes.
Read 6 tweets

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