Thread by @NeilDotObrien

There are good reasons to be much more concerned about the new wave 3, than about wave 2 - a quick thread.

Here's the relationship between the number of cases in England among those aged 60+ and the number of people hospitalised by Covid - the one follows the other with a lag.

...And here is the relationship between Covid hospitalisations and deaths - again, the one follows the other with a lag

So todays cases are tomorrow's deaths, and the current rise in cases means more deaths in a couple of weeks. But there are further reasons to be concerned.

First, unlike waves 1 & 2, we start with lots of Covid patients already in our hospitals, and it's winter, so spare capacity is much lower.

Numbers hospitalised in England are set to shooting up past the original peak & likely to keep climbing, because cases are still going up.

Second, the increase in places with the new variant is SO much steeper than before.

2 months ago there were less than ten Covid patients in Kent hospitals. Now there's twice as many as in the spring peak. If that happened elsewhere it would overwhelm services in lots of places

Third, until recently the scary rate growth of cases in London was at least confined to younger people. But now it has, inevitably, spread to older people. As rates spike among older people, and hospital admissions are starting to rise faster.

So to sum up:
- Today's cases = tomorrows deaths, and they're rising
- We are starting winter wave with far less headroom
- Places with the new variant see very rapid increases
- Once it spreads among younger people it will inevitably get to older people
> Need to hit it hard now