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Jim Bianco Profile picture
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17 Jan, 5 tweets, 2 min read
The chart below is Trump's approval rating from January 22, 2017, to today.

It is the average of over 50 polling services into a "trend."

(1/4)
Before last week, 2 things:

First, Trump got 48% of the vote in 2016 and 2020. But he never saw an approval rating of 48%.

No other president failed to achieve his election % in approval, and Trump failed to achieve it twice.

This is often cited as evidence of bias.

(2/4)
Second, the range of Trump's approval was 11%, 5% using +/1 std dev (shaded).

This is far and away the tightest ever. Everyone's opinion about Trump was set and no daily "hyperventilation" of whatever Trump did, or did not do, meaningfully changed anyone's opinion.

(3/4)
According to this measure, Trump only went "too far" once ... last week. Nothing before last week moved the needle.

Trump's approval rating will run out on Tuesday and Biden's approval rating will begin at the end of next week.

(4/4)
ADDED
Ds already hate Trump. So his approval drop came from Rs turning on him. Why?

Was it the Capitol unrest? Or are Rs mad about the GA Senate losses?

Remember Fox News Ratings are collapsing (for Newsmax) because it is not extreme enough.

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More from @biancoresearch

Jim Bianco Profile picture
2 Jan
I've been tweeting that all the stimulus will create inflation. I want to make something clear.

I'm in favor of the stimulus to help the less fortunate, and especially those that lost their jobs via lockdowns and government restrictions.

(1/4)
I've likened it to the takings clause in the constitution. If they Govt "takes" something from you (your house to build a hwy), they have to pay you fair value. Yes, lockdowns are for a good clause (so is the new hwy) but they cannot "take" it from you without FV payment.

(2/4)
But "takings" come with a cost, the new hwy displaces families and destroys neighborhoods. So do lockdowns.

The necessary stimulus is coming with a cost … more inflation. This will raise interest rates and cause problems in the stock market.

(3/4)
Read 4 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
30 Dec 20
What Does Inflation Mean?

After going almost a generation without meaningful inflation, many believe it has been vanquished. Aging demographics, globalization, and advancing technology have held prices down. Will this remain true in 2021?

(1/5)
In the late 60s, many believed stocks were the perfect hedge against inflation. This line of thinking argued companies could raise prices along with costs, providing a barrier from inflation. This thinking is again present today. But this did not hold true in the 70s.

(2/5)
Below is the inflation-adjusted SPX (orange) and DJIA (blue) from 1958 to 1995.

From the 1968 peak to the 1982 low, the S&P 500 lost 65% of its inflation-adjusted value. It was not until 1993 that the inflation-adjusted SPX exceeded its 1968 peak! 1995 for the DJIA!

(3/5)
Read 5 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
29 Dec 20
CRB Raw Industrial Spot up 25% since April.

It is made up of largely non-fut traded commods, so should not be subject to speculative money flows

Hides, tallow, copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, zinc, tin, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, rosin, and rubber.

(1/6)
Typically this is good coincident indciator with interest rates. But now is diverging in a big way.

(2/6)
What does rising raw industrials mean? The simplest answer is NOMINAL economic growth is accelerating.

Nom Growth = Real Growth Plus Inflation

The last 25 yrs have seen nominal growth led by an increase in the real growth. These have become interchangeable terms to many.

(3/6)
Read 6 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
23 Nov 20
Earlier, I posted this on Twitter and, predictably, all the conversation is about Mnuchin at 9%. Why?

(1/7)
Remember that the limit for an account is $850. So, if you are dead sure that Mnuchin will not be the TreasSec on March 1, then deposit $850 and in an account and get an $80 profit on March 1.

This is not why people bet on @PredictIt. They want to speculate!

(2/7)
So, some bettors think it makes more sense to buy Mnuchin at 9% and "hope" the Trump lawsuits or something else come along and pops this contract to 18%. Double your money!!

(3/7)
Read 7 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
21 Nov 20
Some new charts ...

% of a State's beds used by COVID patients.

The thick black line is the US National Average

Also shown is the four highest % states (SD, NE, IL, WI) and the four lowest (VT, HI, ME, NH)

@ErikSTownsend @chrismartenson @EpsilonTheory @MishGEA @ttmygh

(1/4)
Here is the raw number of beds being used nationally by COVID patients

(2/4)
Here is the raw number of IL beds used by COVID patients. IL is #3 nationally and the largest four states with the highest % of bed used by CV19..

Note the growth in the last month

(3/4)
Read 4 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
20 Nov 20
nbcnews.com/business/econo…

President-elect Joe Biden said Thursday that he has decided whom he will nominate for treasury secretary and that he will make the announcement in the coming weeks.

(1/2)
And look who jumped into the lead in the betting markets (but both are still under 50%)

(2/2)
Interesting update
Read 4 tweets

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