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Aaron Derfel

18 Jan, 9 tweets, 4 min read

1) Some observers are already suggesting Quebec may be turning a corner in the #pandemic by noting the province has reported three days of declining #COVID19 hospitalizations and a steady drop in active cases. In this thread, I will try to show why this view may be premature.

2) Quebec counted a total of 2,596 people with #COVID19 in the province’s private seniors’ residences and long-term care centres Sunday — one of the highest daily totals in the second wave. Unfortunately, some of these individuals will need to be hospitalized in the coming days.

3) What’s more, the number of active #COVID19 cases (20,636) should not be considered accurate because authorities acknowledged Sunday that a delay in the transmission of data resulted in a drop in the number of new cases declared. This should be corrected by Monday.

4) For these reasons, I am refraining from reporting Quebec’s or Montreal’s #COVID19 case numbers, or the extent of neighborhood transmission of the #coronavirus, because I believe this could give people a slightly skewed impression of what's going on in the city on Sunday.

5) As far as #COVID19 hospitalizations are concerned, Quebec did observe two other three-day drops in the last few weeks. In fact, both of those drops, on Dec. 23 and on Dec. 30, were more substantial than the latest one. We’ll have to wait to see whether this represents a trend.

6) What we can observe is the number of #COVID19 outbreaks in daycares jumped by 11 to 56 on Sunday. And since elementary schools reopened last Monday, authorities have declared three new clusters. What will happen in the weeks to come after high schools reopen tomorrow?

7) Meanwhile, Montreal added 30 more #COVID19 fatalities Sunday to a death toll of 4,084. Just past the halfway mark of January, Montreal has posted 222 deaths, 19 fewer than all of December. For context, the city of Paris’s death toll stands at 2,796, up by one since Saturday.

8) On Friday, Premier François Legault tweeted that Quebec “continues to do better in the second wave” as he showed a chart comparing the province with other countries. I’ll leave it up to others to comment on the Premier’s observations.

9) But during this second wave, three more transmissible variants have emerged: in the U.K., South Africa and Brazil. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention fears the U.K. variant could dominate the U.S. by March. That strain has also been found in Canada. End of thread.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

20 Jan

1) Premier François Legault highlighted four health districts in Montreal where #COVID19 cases are skyrocketing. He noted that these districts have as many as 450 infections per 100,000 residents. In fact, the latest numbers are even higher in those districts.

2) Transmission of the #coronavirus is the highest in the health district of Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel, with 601.8 active #COVID19 cases per 100,000 population. I’ve been warning about Saint-Léonard for weeks, and Legault is now calling for more testing in the four districts.

3) A senior Montreal health official I interviewed Tuesday told me that some Montrealers are still reluctant to get tested for the #coronavirus. As high as the numbers are in those four districts, a boost in testing would likely lead to even more #COVID19 cases.

Read 14 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

19 Jan

1) Hospitalizations for #COVID19 rebounded on Monday by 31 to reach 1,491 — a clear sign the second wave still poses a dire threat in the province. ICU stays inched up by two to 217. In this thread, I will try to explain a couple of seemingly conflicting trends in the #pandemic.

2) On Jan. 8, Quebec posted a high of 3,127 #COVID19 cases. Ten days later, the province declared 1,634 infections. In fact, the number should be lower, 1,434 cases, since technically 200 belong to the tally reported on Sunday but were only disclosed Monday because of delays.

3) Is this a sign that the province’s curfew and shutting of non-essential businesses are working? A senior Montreal health official to whom I spoke attributed the decline in #COVID19 cases to a drop in testing. Authorities carried out 10,000 fewer tests over the weekend.

Read 11 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

15 Jan

1) More evidence is emerging that Quebec’s latest #pandemic restrictions may be failing to break the second wave of #COVID19 cases. In this thread, I will return to the subject of the growing number of workplace outbreaks and transmission of the virus in reopened schools.

2) Nearly three weeks after Quebec ordered the closing of non-essential businesses — but not manufacturing — the number of #COVID19 outbreaks in the workplace jumped by 55 in the past two days to 633. One would have expected such outbreaks to start declining by now.

3) Meanwhile, elementary schools reopened on Monday. Yet already, schools are shuttering classrooms due to #COVID19 exposure, up by 19 Thursday for a total of 33 across the province. What’s more, 134 more students and staff have tested positive for the #coronavirus. See below.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

14 Jan

1) Despite the closing of non-essential businesses in Montreal on Dec. 25, workplace #COVID19 outbreaks rose to 109 from 91 in the past two weeks, according to the latest figures by authorities. In this thread, I will assess whether the current #pandemic restrictions are working.

2) At first glance, it might seem like the restrictions may be working, given the fact that the total number of #COVID19 outbreaks in Montreal dropped to 315 Tuesday from 426 on Dec. 29. But the chart below is somewhat misleading, as it does not include any school clusters.

3) Quebec shut schools on Dec. 17 amid concerns of rising #COVID19 transmission across the province. On Dec. 29, the Montreal public health department reported 164 school outbreaks. But the latest update shows no such outbreaks, understandable given that schools were shut.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

13 Jan

1) As #COVID19 hospitalizations surged by 61 to nearly 1,500 in the province Tuesday, more young Quebecers are being admitted for the #pandemic illness than ever, some of whom are children, according to the latest figures by the Institut national de santé publique du Québec.

2) The INSPQ reported on Tuesday that there were six “current hospitalizations” for #COVID19 among children up to the age of nine, and 11 between the ages of 10 and 19. I’ve never seen such stats before in Quebec’s pandemic. Please look at the pie chart below.

3) True, the majority of the 1,497 Quebecers hospitalized for #COVID19 are above the age of 60, with the 80-to-89 demographic comprising most admissions. However, as you can observe from INSPQ Excel chart below, a total of 68 Quebecers under 39 are currently in hospital.

Read 11 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

12 Jan

1) In the starkest assessment yet, a deputy Quebec health minister warned Monday of the pandemic’s long-lasting impact not just on #COVID19 patients but on those suffering from cancer. In this thread, I will try to explain the deadly indirect damage the #coronavirus is causing.

2) Because of the worsening #pandemic, the number of elective surgeries in the province has jumped to at least 140,000. Even that number, though, doesn’t tell the full story. Kidney transplants from living donors have been suspended, and some people cannot get a colonoscopy.

3) The ramp down in clinical activities during the #pandemic’s first wave last spring resulted in at least 5,000 fewer cancer diagnoses than the normal volume. That means thousands of Quebecers are walking around with cancers that would otherwise have been detected earlier.

Read 11 tweets

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