1) Premier François Legault highlighted four health districts in Montreal where #COVID19 cases are skyrocketing. He noted that these districts have as many as 450 infections per 100,000 residents. In fact, the latest numbers are even higher in those districts.
2) Transmission of the #coronavirus is the highest in the health district of Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel, with 601.8 active #COVID19 cases per 100,000 population. I’ve been warning about Saint-Léonard for weeks, and Legault is now calling for more testing in the four districts. 
3) A senior Montreal health official I interviewed Tuesday told me that some Montrealers are still reluctant to get tested for the #coronavirus. As high as the numbers are in those four districts, a boost in testing would likely lead to even more #COVID19 cases.
4) Ironically, Montreal posted 479 #COVID19 cases Tuesday, the lowest since Dec. 9, when the total then was 478. This suggests that the curfew since Jan. 8 and the closing of non-essential businesses since Dec. 25 may be paying off. But the reality is not as simple as that.
5) Provincially, the declining #COVID19 cases in the past three days are largely a reflection of a drop in testing. Please take a glimpse at the chart below by Quebec’s public health institute showing an increase in the positivity rate for the past three days, not the opposite.
6) If the situation is as truly encouraging as Legault seeks to convey, why is the Premier stepping up efforts to boost #COVID19 testing in Saint-Léonard, Ahuntsic-Montreal North, Nord de l’Ile-Saint-Laurent and Rivière-des-Prairies, Anjou and Montreal East?
7) In fact, Montreal has reported a sharp rise in #COVID19 outbreaks of all types since last week, belying the claim of progress. The chart below by the city’s public health department shows the total number of outbreaks climbed from 315 on Jan. 12 to 385 on Tuesday.
8) Workplace #COVID19 clusters soared by 39 to 148, raising questions as to whether closing non-essential businesses (but not factories) has been truly effective. Health-care outbreaks rose by 15 to 161. And already among reopened elementary schools, there are three outbreaks.
9) Provincially, the number of #COVID19 outbreaks rose by seven in a day to 479 in health institutions. Clusters rose by four to 66 in daycares and by four to 28 in schools. Workplace outbreaks did plummet by 41 to 608, but the numbers in this sector have been fluctuating wildly.
10) The Quebec Education Ministry reported that schools shuttered 142 more classrooms due to #COVID19, for a total of 319. The number of active cases among students and staff jumped by 133 to 1,906. Look to those numbers rising since high schools reopened Monday.
11) Across Quebec, the number of #COVID19 hospitalizations inched up by nine to 1,500, although ICU stays dropped by five to 212. The Premier said he would want to see a steady drop in hospitalizations to consider easing the latest restrictions.
12) At the McGill University Health Centre, the number of #COVID19 hospitalizations dropped to 54 on Tuesday from 60 the day before. (See the chart below.) But at the Jewish General Hospital, the number of hospitalizations rose to 54 from 50.
13) If there have been encouraging signs, it’s that hospitalizations haven't surged by two dozen a day, as they did last week. But this progress is fragile. Vaccinations are positive, too, but authorities have delayed second shots and the Pfizer shipment won’t arrive next week.
14) Sadly, on Jan. 19, Montreal has already surpassed its death toll for the entire previous month. The city declared 19 more #COVID19 fatalities for a total of 252 deaths so far this month, compared with 241 in December. End of thread. Please limit your social contacts.
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