My luke-warm Titanic takes for this Sunday night that are pretty easy to substantiate even if they may seem counterintuitive:

1. The coal fire likely saved lives on the Titanic
2. If the Titanic had more life boats, more lives would have been lost.
Let me explain:

1. Because of the fire (a common occurrence at the time on liners), coal was shifted from starboard to port. This gave the ship a noticeable port list. When the ship flooded from the starboard side, rather than listing hard to starboard and...
...potentially capsizing, the ship stayed at a relatively even keel allowing the boats to be lowered freely u like on the Lusitania which sunk with a heavy starboard list to the point where the boats swung out too far on the starboard side and scraped along the hull on port...
2. They didn’t even have enough time to launch the boats that they had. They launched 18/20. The last two collapsable just floated away. One of which, collapsable B, floated away upside down. Further early on in the sinking, passengers were reluctant to board them...
...causing boats to be launched well below capacity. On top of all of this, if there were more lifeboats that wouldn’t have been able to have been launched anyhow, they would have taken up space on the deck slowing down the launching of the boats even further.
Particularly with the second one though, it’s important to think of this in the context of the equipment at the time. The ship didn’t have electric davits which helped speed up their launching on the Britannic when she sank a few years later in WWI.
If this was a few years later with more boats and electric davits, then more boats could have been launched and more lives could have been saved. Not the case though with those davits.
Aside from witness testimony, we know that not all of the lifeboats were launched because the number 1 davit where Murdoch tried to launch collapsable At ~2:10 AM is still cranked in on the wreck. The davits that weren’t still trying to launch a boat were left swung out. ImageImage

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More from @ActorAaronBooth

20 Jan
12:51 AM: WH drops the pardon list
List includes former Congressman Rick Renzi
Buried in the middle: Elliott Broidy and Steve Bannon Image
Read 9 tweets
19 Jan
One 2020 flip in MN that *may* not have happened without COVID: #HD19A which flipped from blue to red. Regardless it was close and Brand under-performed the rest of the ticket. ImageImageImageImage
Turnout fell from 2016 in the precinct containing the Gustavus Adolphus Campus by 422 votes. Brand lost district wide by 108 votes. Image
#HD19A is an Obama/Trump/Biden district that contains all of Nicollet County and then part of Blue Earth and Le Sueur Counties. ImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
16 Jan
Will go a bit more granular on this in a bit as there is a lot of movement going on under the hood here, but #HD35A in the north metro has as a whole seen a pretty flat trend. The district shifted ~2 points towards Trump from 2012, but shifted 6.6 points towards Biden from 2016.
Smith slid back a bit from her 2018 performance, though Lewis failed to crack 50% in 2020 just as Housley failed to do in 2018. Klobuchar's suburban strength helped her hold onto the district in 2018.
The GOP incumbent in #HD35A improved over 2018, though the DFL maintained a tighter margin in the district than 2014 or 2016.
Read 12 tweets
15 Jan
A Lindell/Gazelka primary would be interesting. Gazelka slightly ahead of Trump in his deep red #SD09. The big issue for the MNGOP isn't winning these deep red districts, it's figuring out how to win back the metro and Rochester when running statewide.
Even solid DFL wins statewide at this point don't translate into making up a whole lot of ground in #SD09.
If you were the GOP, you would maybe be more interested in trying to appeal to the regions where they have been bleeding votes from. That being said, the bench isn't exactly large and even with Johnson from Hennepin County again in 2018, he barely carried his own district.
Read 4 tweets
15 Jan
Another city where COVID gave Trump a bit of a boost due to the presence of a College campus: Crookston. The city of 7,764 swung about 2 points towards Trump in 2020 despite the state swinging 5.6 points towards Biden. Obama carried the city twice.
Bush carried the city in 2004 after narrowly losing it in 2000. Bill Clinton carried it twice.
From 2016 to 2020, 5/6 precincts swung towards Trump.
Read 5 tweets
14 Jan
Before Twitter decides to get even more worked up about this: Pretty good chance it was on loan from a museum or a private collection for decoration and is therefore being recalled at the end of the term.
Let’s be realistic here, if you were actually going to steal an item from the permanent WH collection, you would probably not do it in the middle of the day w/ press around, nor would you just carry something out without some sort of case or covering to obscure what the item is.
Let’s also be clear that the permanent collection is managed by the WH curator. The current curator, while appointed by Trump will likely be around for a while yet (previous one served under 3 Presidents) and she has worked in the WH since the Carter administration.
Read 6 tweets

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