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19 Jan, 6 tweets, 6 min read
One 2020 flip in MN that *may* not have happened without COVID: #HD19A which flipped from blue to red. Regardless it was close and Brand under-performed the rest of the ticket.
Turnout fell from 2016 in the precinct containing the Gustavus Adolphus Campus by 422 votes. Brand lost district wide by 108 votes.
#HD19A is an Obama/Trump/Biden district that contains all of Nicollet County and then part of Blue Earth and Le Sueur Counties.
Smith under-performed 2018, but still carried the district.
Same story with Feehan who is actually from the district.
The best performing DFL'er this cycle in #HD19A was the incumbent State Senator. He fell back from 2016, but still ran ahead of the ticket. In 2012, both #HD19A and #SD19 were left uncontested.

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More from @ActorAaronBooth

Aaron Booth Profile picture
21 Jan
House now voting on the waiver for Biden’s Sec of Defense nominee. Expected to pass without trouble.
In fact, this is pretty clearly going to be an overwhelming vote in favor.
There is currently bipartisan support and bipartisan opposition. Expect the same scenario in the Senate, though of course the bipartisan support is larger by far than the bipartisan opposition.
Read 8 tweets
Aaron Booth Profile picture
20 Jan
12:51 AM: WH drops the pardon list
List includes former Congressman Rick Renzi
Buried in the middle: Elliott Broidy and Steve Bannon Image
Read 9 tweets
Aaron Booth Profile picture
18 Jan
My luke-warm Titanic takes for this Sunday night that are pretty easy to substantiate even if they may seem counterintuitive:

1. The coal fire likely saved lives on the Titanic
2. If the Titanic had more life boats, more lives would have been lost.
Let me explain:

1. Because of the fire (a common occurrence at the time on liners), coal was shifted from starboard to port. This gave the ship a noticeable port list. When the ship flooded from the starboard side, rather than listing hard to starboard and...
...potentially capsizing, the ship stayed at a relatively even keel allowing the boats to be lowered freely u like on the Lusitania which sunk with a heavy starboard list to the point where the boats swung out too far on the starboard side and scraped along the hull on port...
Read 8 tweets
Aaron Booth Profile picture
16 Jan
Will go a bit more granular on this in a bit as there is a lot of movement going on under the hood here, but #HD35A in the north metro has as a whole seen a pretty flat trend. The district shifted ~2 points towards Trump from 2012, but shifted 6.6 points towards Biden from 2016.
Smith slid back a bit from her 2018 performance, though Lewis failed to crack 50% in 2020 just as Housley failed to do in 2018. Klobuchar's suburban strength helped her hold onto the district in 2018.
The GOP incumbent in #HD35A improved over 2018, though the DFL maintained a tighter margin in the district than 2014 or 2016.
Read 12 tweets
Aaron Booth Profile picture
15 Jan
A Lindell/Gazelka primary would be interesting. Gazelka slightly ahead of Trump in his deep red #SD09. The big issue for the MNGOP isn't winning these deep red districts, it's figuring out how to win back the metro and Rochester when running statewide.
Even solid DFL wins statewide at this point don't translate into making up a whole lot of ground in #SD09.
If you were the GOP, you would maybe be more interested in trying to appeal to the regions where they have been bleeding votes from. That being said, the bench isn't exactly large and even with Johnson from Hennepin County again in 2018, he barely carried his own district.
Read 4 tweets
Aaron Booth Profile picture
15 Jan
Another city where COVID gave Trump a bit of a boost due to the presence of a College campus: Crookston. The city of 7,764 swung about 2 points towards Trump in 2020 despite the state swinging 5.6 points towards Biden. Obama carried the city twice.
Bush carried the city in 2004 after narrowly losing it in 2000. Bill Clinton carried it twice.
From 2016 to 2020, 5/6 precincts swung towards Trump.
Read 5 tweets

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